WTT at MAYAKOBA PREVIEW, PICKS AND MY MODEL

Betting Tips

MAYAKOBA GOLF PREVIEW

Before we head into this Mayakoba golf preview, last week was a definite minus week. No luck on the DP World Tour but a short place with Patrick Rodgers ensured it wasn’t a whitewash! JUSTIN LAWER & SCOTT BROWN at 250/1 was in position heading into the weekend at Bermuda and I was excited about how the weekend would unfold. 

However, you couldn’t watch much of the coverage in the UK anyway but BROWN carded a +10 on day 3 and fell right out of contention. Wallop.

Therefore, we dust ourselves down, get back to the grind and start to find some form for this week. A week where we find many of the top players heading to Mexico for the WTT at Mayakoba Classic or whatever it’s called now.

Irony ahoy, on a week where LIV Golf celebrated an exciting climax to their inaugural season, the PGA Tour heads south to a Greg Norman course which is touted to transfer into the hands of LIV in 2023. 

For us mere mortals, this is an opportunity to enjoy a plethora of talent across this week’s event. I suspect this week and next week in Houston may be the last time for the year. If you wanted to play free Waggle Duff Fantasy Golf and join in the fun! Click here.

The top of the leaderboard is headed by;

TOP OF THE FIELD

Scottie Scheffler 8/1

Viktor Hovland 9/1

Tony Finau 16/1

Aaron Wise 18/1

Billy Horschel 18/1

Collin Morikawa 18/1

A strong top-of-the-field at an event that VIKTOR HOVLAND clearly loves. He is the two-time defending champion. I like how he is off the tee, he putts well on the paspalum greens, compared to other greens. Finally, the chipping which is a concern is softened on this course and is not as important.

PREVIOUS MAYAKOBA WINNERS

2021Viktor Hovland (2)261−234 strokesCarlos Ortiz
2020Viktor Hovland264−201 strokeAaron Wise
2019Brendon Todd264−201 stroke Adam Long
2018Matt Kuchar262−221 strokeDanny Lee
2017Patton Kizzire265−191 strokeRickie Fowler
2016Pat Perez263−212 strokesGary Woodland
2015Graeme McDowell266−18PlayoffJason Bohn
2014Charley Hoffman267−171 strokeShawn Stefani
2013Harris English263−214 strokesBrian Stuard
2012John Huh271−13PlayoffRobert Allenby

EL CHAMALEON – WTT at MAYAKOBA COURSE

El Chamaleon once more hosts this version of the Mayakoba Classic, an event that has had several names & sponsors over the years. 

The pictures on google make you believe that the course is coastal. It’s not that coastal. A Lot of the course sends you through a tropical, jungle environment as you snake through the property.

This makes El Chamaleon a very narrow course and subsequently a thinkers course. It’s all about hitting the fairway and getting into position off the tee. There are man-made lagoons and limestone canals that weave through the property, coming into play in all but 3 of the holes.

The greens are Paspalm which runs slow. Some of the players that putt well on this type of green include LONG, GRILLO (home player) and FINAU. The slow greens are also quite flat, which will allow players to get up and down from spots that could be considered short-sided on another course.

The key stat compared to other PGA Tour events is Driving Accuracy. This week El Camaleon golf course ranks 5th in importance off the tee but ranks between 32nd and 47th in any other statistic. 

This means, with the narrow fairways, and the harsh penalties for errant tee shots, we need to find players that are machine-like from the tee and can get into position. I am not as concerned with putting this week but will run the model with it weighted to see any findings. I will explain why I believe putting is equalised across the field a little more this week vs other PGA Tour events.

MAYAKOBA GOLF PREVIEW – THE WINNING FORMULA

When thinking about courses like this, I immediately just go to BRIAN HARMAN before I even look at rickrungood.com.

Fortunately, my gut isn’t too far away with HARMAN. You will see he ranks 12 in my model and the lefty is good off the tee albeit not long. He has some solid form with finishes of 23rd, 15th, 21st, 35th and 3rd at the FedEx St Jude. 

As I build my model, I have weighted towards off the tee; 18% driving accuracy and 10% SG OTT.

I also weighted towards SG at Chamlaeon historically at 8%. This is because this is a unique challenge, and one which certain players will come here looking forward to. HOVLAND has won here twice, HORSCHEL has 2 top 10s in the last 4 years and ex-champion TODD has followed up his win with an 8th and 11th place in recent years.

My Model – Based on the last 32 rounds

  • SG OTT – 10%
  • SG APR -10%
  • SG ARG – 5%
  • SG T2G -105
  • SG P 8%
  • SG OTT LAST 12 RDS – 5%
  • DRIVING ACCURACY- 18%
  • APR 75-100YDS – 5%
  • APR 100-125 YDS – 10%
  • PUTTING INSIDE 10’ – 6%
  • SG EL CHAMALEON – 8%

Top 25 from the model

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Russell Henley
  4. Aaron Wise
  5. Billy Horschel
  6. Kevin Streelman
  7. Collin Morikawa
  8. Viktor Hovland
  9. Martin Laird
  10. Matt Kuchar
  11. Keith Mitchell
  12. Aaron Rai
  13. Tom Hoge
  14. Jason Day
  15. Hayden Buckley
  16. Emiliano Grillo
  17. Brian Harman
  18. Joel Dahmen
  19. David Lipsky
  20. Will Gordon
  21. Brendon Todd
  22. Henrik Norlander
  23. Francesco Molinari
  24. Sebastian Munoz
  25. Greyson Sigg

WEATHER

The weather for Thursday and Friday looks wet with light showers. This won’t change my line too much when it comes to my picks. If anything the added element of light showers throughout both the first two days plays into that controlled ball striker that we are looking for. One that plots and paves his way around the course. 

We may have some thunder and lightning on Thursday, but it’s Monday night as I write this and things could well change. 

MAYAKONA GOLF PREVIEW – PICKS

TONY FINAU – 18/1 – BOYLE SPORTS

This week I wanted to lean towards someone at the top of the leaderboard. HOVLAND, FINAU, SCHEFFLER & MORIKAWA piqued my interest with MORIKAWA being someone I can see the market ignoring due to a disappointing 2022. A track like this does however suit his game because it’s all about position and pinpoint accuracy, something he has in abundance. 

However, I have gone with in-form FINAU at 18/1 to win. Finau ranked 2nd in my model, boasting more strokes gained in totality vs #1 SCHEFFLER. This year FINAU has won twice, which is a big deal. Many jokes have been slung at FINAU up until the Northern Trust in 2021 about whether he would actually win again! 

This year he has followed up with victories at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage, which were back-to-back. FINAU is an elite player, so it’s no surprise to see him picking up on average 1.73 shots on the field when it comes to T2G strokes gained. 

It could be said to put SCHEFF, TONY, COLLIN & HOVLAND in a hat and draw one out but TONY is 18/1 and SHEFF is at 9/1 on many bookies. Double the value and arguably better form from FINAU in the 2nd half of the year. 

RUSSELL HENLEY – 40/1 – EW 10 – BOYLE SPORTS

I could build a model for the Japan Ladies Tour and I am sure HENLEY would trend well in my model. He pops up most weeks without failure. There are players like him and the absent MITO & ZALATORIS who just seem to lead models even when not in form. 

HENLEY is one that I am more confident in this week due to the fact he is the most accurate off the tee in the whole field, based on the previous 6 months of golf. I need to pray that the often “cold” putter warms up. However, there aren’t any easier places to find your stroke than at El Chamaleon. 

At 40/1 at 10 places feels like good value for a player who is the epitome of accuracy. When it comes to putting I will explain in my next pick why I still see the value.

BRIAN HARMAN – 28/1 – EW 12 – BOYLE SPORTS

A similar thought process has led me to the already mentioned BRIAN HARMAN. To be fair, HARMAN has a little more about him than HENLEY, however, I have selected 12 places over 10 for odds of 28/1. Potentially a little light. 

He was 2nd last time out in Bermuda and has 2 other top 10s in the last 6 weeks. It feels like it’s coming for BRIAN. This is a course I am sure he targets as an opportunity for him to compete. Merely for the fact, bombers have their drivers taken off them for many of the holes. Also, 3 of the Par 3s are around 150 yards, which neutralises their advantages on typically longer Par 3s. 

HARMAN again is a player that plots around the course and can machine his way from tee to fairway to green and ranked 17th in my model.

He is trending in the right direction with his very large putter. +0.27 in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. However, inside 10 feet he has been very poor. Although I will see the trend as positive. Heading into a week on flat greens, where the stroke beats the read. 

EMILLIANO GRILLO – 40/1 – EW 6 – BOYLE SPORTS

GRILLO this year is a little of the forgotten man, albeit is this an event he has many top 10 finishes. He is also a very good putter when it comes to Paspalum greens.

With the absence of CARLOS ORTIZ, it will be GRILLO who is fueled by the love of the fans as the Mexican plays in his home country.

He also comes in this week with much better form, following a 4th at the Sandersons and a 5th at the BMW. GRILLO will be full of confidence as he once more does battle at El CAMALEON, looking for his 2nd win on tour, this would make sense to be the event where that could happen for the first time since 2015.

Statistically, GRILLO ticks boxes and is gaining 0.5 of a shot on the field over the last 50 rounds. More recently this number is 0.35 but 1.1 in shots gained in total. He ranks in my model 16th and when given the option of GRILLO, BUCKLEY, DAY & HOGE places slightly higher. In Mexico, I will go with GRILLO.

For me, GRILLO is S**T or bust. Therefore I have taken 40s EW on 6 places because I can see him winning or falling away as he often does across the season. If there was an event he would hang around, perhaps in front of the home fans is where this will happen.

KEVIN STREELMAN – 70/1 – EW 12 – BOYLE SPORTS

I am expecting a lot of support for STREELMAN as you can find him around 100/1 on some bookies. 

He ranked 6th in my model, which is why he was the first player I backed on Boyle Sports. He stats very similarly to HARMAN, whereby he is solid Tee to Green, particularly good off the tee but lacks from 10 feet. Ranking 97th in the field over the last 24 rounds. 

If you are going to be consistent with your approach, this is one to put your money down and hope. I believe with the slower Paspalum greens, the players will be taking a longer, firmer stroke. Therefore the 10 foot put maybe 12-15feet on a normal week. 

Once more as the greens are flat this is one where this difference can be closed but as for most weeks for players. STREELMAN will need to find his stroke.

Finally, I love how good STREELMAN is from 75-100 & 100-125 yards, ranking 9th and 12th respectfully vs the field in recent weeks. From 9 irons through the wedges he is dialled in and I hope this will correlate into a strong Par 3 performance this week and the birdies we need to compete.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

FINAL – HERO WORLD CHALLENGE – WAGGLE DUFF – Sponsored by INNIT STORE

Thank you all for playing this week, that was a lot of fun! couldn’t have written what happened!

Well done to DerekDavidson34 for winning this week! INNIT STORE will be in touch to send you your prize.

Thank you to them for sponsoring, please may I ask everyone to check them out online as they’ve been a great sponsor and supporter of Waggle Duff this year and may solve a few golf friends’ Xmas presents!

Final note, the league table will be amended today and there is some slight change to DP World Tour Champs. GaryCrooks is still the winner (sorry Nate!). I gave Wiesberger the bonus points for lowest round of the week but rightly can confirm it was Morikawa.

Back this week for the last time this year! It’s also The WAGGLE Cup FINAL! A bit of fun for The PGA Tour Shootout! Teams out either tonight or tomorrow morning!

Have a good week, thanks for playing! Let’s get onto the Cup and League results.

Matt

CUP RESULTS

Player SemiFinalsPlayer
TheHighFade123146104SebMax33
ShallowCalGolf108115NateChar23
INNIT.STORE supporting Waggle Duff by donating a prize for THE UP-COMING HERO CHAMPIONSHIP

ELIGIBILITY
Due to shipping costs across boarders, the winner of the prize will be the team with the highest fantasy league points based in the UK ONLY. If a non – uk player wins, he/she will be offered the opportunity to send the prize to a UK based address.

TIES

If there is a tie, then we will go to countback. The best total round 4 scores from that waggle duff player will decide the winner. If that’s a tie we go to round 3, then round 2, then round 1. If it’s still a Tie then we work from the captains score down to decide the winner. Then the second selection, then the 3rd selection.

If after all that it’s still a tie. The tie’d players will go to a play off on next weeks PGA TOUR SHOOTOUT!

Please support our sponsors by visiting their website and checking out their products.

#NamePoints
1DerekDavidson34177
2CoxyYork174
3TinTinandGolf168
4LinksandWhiskey168
5Wilkesy93154
6INNIT_STORE153
7LennyLangers152
8BeadlowManor1150
9TommyTriceps147
10McN_lty146
11TheHighFade123146
12DazzaMac73145
13MorrisJosh__144
14Marrs_Jordan144
15Lad_golf140
16GrizzleyBear72140
17Shafty28140
18JimmyFitz138
19Chief1425136
2047_Irish135
218waytiefor5th135
22RichCrow2010134
23LuckyNo_4132
24ThomsonGolf94129
25LeoCDuckett126
26AndrewYJohnston126
27BJays129126
28Bhut_Jolokia400125
29JoePublicGolf125
30GolfNutter3124
31SCB_08123
32HOLESALEGOLF117
33TankShannon116
34KevinJohnsonKJ115
35NateChar23115
36Forritouno113
37UncleMonkee110
38Antow73109
39Jay11Bird23108
40ShallowCalGolf108
41SebMax33104
423PuttOnly103
43GaryCrooks11103
44NelsonsGolfTips102
45Andrew_Tizzard101
46Jaxon_Golf96
47GolfTipster596
48NJHolden94
49Sprytastik92
50RyanLMarchand91
51DPRB2187
52DriscollMania85
53JRSpratt81
54AHawk30080
55MattTizzard79
56WerzalGummage70

PLAYER POINS

Players Round1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
Collin Morikawa510151444
Rory McIlroy1553629
Justin Thomas5331930
Viktor Hovland5553550
Bryson Dechambeau3155629
Jordan Spieth333514
Xander Schauffele333615
Abraham Ancer1533627
Sam Burns31051836
Scottie Scheffler33102541
Tony Finau51051030
Daniel Berger15551035
Webb Simpson533617
Brooks Koepka555823
Matt Fitzpatrick333615
Patrick Reed5551833
Tyrrell Hatton355821
Justin Rose3331322
Harris English3381630
Henrik Stenson333615

TEAM BREAKDOWN

Next to your name is next to a number. To see your teams individual scores, scroll down to that number in the final table below (you may need to scroll a little while!)

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#NamePoints
1LeoCDuckett126
2JRSpratt81
3Andrew_Tizzard101
4AHawk30080
547_Irish135
6McN_lty146
7Forritouno113
8SebMax33104
9Chief1425136
10ThomsonGolf94129
11Bhut_Jolokia400125
12SCB_08123
13Jay11Bird23108
14BeadlowManor1150
15TinTinandGolf168
16HOLESALEGOLF117
17Sprytastik92
18INNIT_STORE153
198waytiefor5th135
20WerzalGummage70
21KevinJohnsonKJ115
223PuttOnly103
23DerekDavidson34177
24CoxyYork174
25LennyLangers152
26JimmyFitz138
27JoePublicGolf125
28NelsonsGolfTips102
29Jaxon_Golf96
30GaryCrooks11103
31TheHighFade123146
32ShallowCalGolf108
33DazzaMac73145
34TommyTriceps147
35LinksandWhiskey168
36Antow73109
37GolfNutter3124
38Wilkesy93154
39RichCrow2010134
40Lad_golf140
41AndrewYJohnston126
42RyanLMarchand91
43MorrisJosh__144
44GolfTipster596
45NJHolden94
46DPRB2187
47BJays129126
48GrizzleyBear72140
49Marrs_Jordan144
50LuckyNo_4132
51MattTizzard79
52TankShannon116
53DriscollMania85
54NateChar23115
55Shafty28140
56UncleMonkee110
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 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1LeoCDuckett12613182328
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Xander Schauffele153336
 Brooks Koepka235558
  
  
 Bonus
2JRSpratt819111630
 Henrik Stenson303336
 Harris English3033816
 Tyrrell Hatton213558
  
  
 Bonus
3Andrew_Tizzard1019161129
 Sam Burns72310518
 Jordan Spieth143335
 Matt Fitzpatrick153336
  
  
 Bonus
4AHawk3008011161128
 Jordan Spieth283335
 Tony Finau30510510
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
547_Irish13535131147
 Rory McIlroy5815536
 Abraham Ancer2715336
 Viktor Hovland5055535
  
  
 Bonus
6McN_lty14611232345
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Justin Rose2233313
 sam burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
7Forritouno11313161143
 Justin Thomas6053319
 Sam Burns36310518
 Webb Simpson175336
  
  
 Bonus
8SebMax3310413232330
 Xander Schauffele303336
 Collin Morikawa445101514
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
9Chief142513613182338
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Xander Schauffele153336
 Patrick Reed3355518
  
  
 Bonus
10ThomsonGolf9412913181355
 Justin Thomas6053319
 Sam Burns36310518
 Patrick Reed3355518
  
  
 Bonus
11Bhut_Jolokia4001252391650
 Abraham Ancer5415336
 Scottie Scheffler41331025
 Justin Thomas3053319
  
  
 Bonus
12SCB_0812321181137
 Sam Burns72310518
 Rory McIlroy2915536
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
13Jay11Bird2310813231330
 Bryson Dechambeau5831556
 Webb Simpson175336
 Patrick Reed3355518
  
  
 Bonus
14BeadlowManor115011181358
 Viktor Hovland10055535
 Jordan Spieth143335
 Sam Burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
15TinTinandGolf16815252559
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Viktor Hovland5055535
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
16HOLESALEGOLF11723301322
 Rory McIlroy5815536
 Bryson Dechambeau2931556
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
17Sprytastik9211161137
 Webb Simpson345336
 Justin Rose2233313
 Sam Burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
18INNIT_STORE15313182355
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Viktor Hovland5055535
 Matt Fitzpatrick153336
  
  
 Bonus
198waytiefor5th13515232330
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Tony Finau30510510
 Webb Simpson175336
  
  
 Bonus
20WerzalGummage70219917
 Jordan Spieth283335
 Abraham Ancer2715336
 Matt Fitzpatrick153336
  
  
 Bonus
21KevinJohnsonKJ1151191649
 Justin Thomas6053319
 Jordan Spieth143335
 Scottie Scheffler41331025
  
  
 Bonus
223PuttOnly10321111428
 Rory McIlroy5815536
 Matt Fitzpatrick153336
 Harris English3033816
  
  
 Bonus
23DerekDavidson3417715202567
 Viktor Hovland10055535
 Collin Morikawa445101514
 Patrick Reed3355518
  
  
 Bonus
24CoxyYork17415252559
 Viktor Hovland10055535
 Collin Morikawa445101514
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
25LennyLangers15225151349
 Viktor Hovland10055535
 Rory McIlroy2915536
 Brooks Koepka235558
  
  
 Bonus
26JimmyFitz13811232337
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Jordan Spieth143335
 Sam Burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
27JoePublicGolf12525151349
 Brooks Koepka465558
 Rory Mcilroy2915536
 Viktor Hovland5055535
  
  
 Bonus
28NelsonsGolfTips10223181121
 Rory McIlroy5815536
 Jordan Spieth143335
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
29Jaxon_Golf96119937
 Justin Thomas6053319
 Jordan Spieth143335
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
30GaryCrooks111032311931
 Rory McIlroy5815536
 Justin Thomas3053319
 Xander Schauffele153336
  
  
 Bonus
31TheHighFade12314613302542
 Sam Burns72310518
 Collin Morikawa445101514
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
32ShallowCalGolf10811232337
 Jordan Spieth283335
 Sam Burns36310518
 Collin Morikawa445101514
  
  
 Bonus
33DazzaMac7314525162139
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Justin Thomas3053319
 Abraham Ancer2715336
  
  
 Bonus
34TommyTriceps14725252330
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Rory Mcilroy2915536
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
35LinksandWhiskey16815252559
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Viktor Hovland5055535
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
36Antow7310923182330
 Xander Schauffele303336
 Collin Morikawa445101514
 Daniel Berger35155510
  
  
 Bonus
37GolfNutter312423181143
 Rory McIlroy5815536
 Justin Thomas3053319
 Sam Burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
38Wilkesy9315413232351
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Justin Thomas3053319
 Sam Burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
39RichCrow201013425181351
 Abraham Ancer5415336
 Viktor Hovland5055535
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
40Lad_golf14025202328
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Rory Mcilroy2915536
 Brooks Koepka235558
  
  
 Bonus
41AndrewYJohnston12613231347
 Justin Thomas6053319
 Tony Finau30510510
 Sam Burns36310518
  
  
 Bonus
42RyanLMarchand9113111133
 Brooks Koepka465558
 Xander Schauffele153336
 Justin Thomas3053319
  
  
 Bonus
43MorrisJosh__14415202540
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Brooks Koepka235558
 Patrick Reed3355518
  
  
 Bonus
44GolfTipster59623131120
 Rory Mcilroy5815536
 Xander Schauffele153336
 Brooks Koepka235558
  
  
 Bonus
45NJHolden942111924
 Rory Mcilroy5815536
 Justin Rose2233313
 Jordan Spieth143335
  
  
 Bonus
46DPRB218723111119
 Brooks Koepka465558
 Abraham Ancer2715336
 Jordan Spieth143335
  
  
 Bonus
47BJays12912613231347
 Justin Thomas6053319
 Sam Burns36310518
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
48GrizzleyBear7214025202328
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Rory McIlroy2915536
 Brooks Koepka235558
  
  
 Bonus
49Marrs_Jordan14435182126
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Rory McIlroy2915536
 Abraham Ancer2715336
  
  
 Bonus
50LuckyNo_413225252330
 Rory Mcilroy5815536
 Collin Morikawa445101514
 Tony Finau30510510
  
  
 Bonus
51MattTizzard792111924
 Jordan Spieth283335
 Rory McIlroy2915536
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
52TankShannon11621181137
 Rory Mcilroy5815536
 Sam Burns36310518
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
53DriscollMania8511111137
 Xander Schauffele303336
 Patrick Reed3355518
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
54NateChar2311513181341
 Tony Finau60510510
 Patrick Reed3355518
 Justin Rose2233313
  
  
 Bonus
55Shafty2814025202328
 Collin Morikawa885101514
 Rory Mcilroy2915536
 Brooks Koepka235558
  
  
 Bonus
56UncleMonkee11023131130
 Patrick Reed6655518
 Rory McIlroy2915536
 Xander Schauffele153336
  
  
 Bonus