WTT at MAYAKOBA PREVIEW, PICKS AND MY MODEL

Betting Tips

MAYAKOBA GOLF PREVIEW

Before we head into this Mayakoba golf preview, last week was a definite minus week. No luck on the DP World Tour but a short place with Patrick Rodgers ensured it wasn’t a whitewash! JUSTIN LAWER & SCOTT BROWN at 250/1 was in position heading into the weekend at Bermuda and I was excited about how the weekend would unfold. 

However, you couldn’t watch much of the coverage in the UK anyway but BROWN carded a +10 on day 3 and fell right out of contention. Wallop.

Therefore, we dust ourselves down, get back to the grind and start to find some form for this week. A week where we find many of the top players heading to Mexico for the WTT at Mayakoba Classic or whatever it’s called now.

Irony ahoy, on a week where LIV Golf celebrated an exciting climax to their inaugural season, the PGA Tour heads south to a Greg Norman course which is touted to transfer into the hands of LIV in 2023. 

For us mere mortals, this is an opportunity to enjoy a plethora of talent across this week’s event. I suspect this week and next week in Houston may be the last time for the year. If you wanted to play free Waggle Duff Fantasy Golf and join in the fun! Click here.

The top of the leaderboard is headed by;

TOP OF THE FIELD

Scottie Scheffler 8/1

Viktor Hovland 9/1

Tony Finau 16/1

Aaron Wise 18/1

Billy Horschel 18/1

Collin Morikawa 18/1

A strong top-of-the-field at an event that VIKTOR HOVLAND clearly loves. He is the two-time defending champion. I like how he is off the tee, he putts well on the paspalum greens, compared to other greens. Finally, the chipping which is a concern is softened on this course and is not as important.

PREVIOUS MAYAKOBA WINNERS

2021Viktor Hovland (2)261−234 strokesCarlos Ortiz
2020Viktor Hovland264−201 strokeAaron Wise
2019Brendon Todd264−201 stroke Adam Long
2018Matt Kuchar262−221 strokeDanny Lee
2017Patton Kizzire265−191 strokeRickie Fowler
2016Pat Perez263−212 strokesGary Woodland
2015Graeme McDowell266−18PlayoffJason Bohn
2014Charley Hoffman267−171 strokeShawn Stefani
2013Harris English263−214 strokesBrian Stuard
2012John Huh271−13PlayoffRobert Allenby

EL CHAMALEON – WTT at MAYAKOBA COURSE

El Chamaleon once more hosts this version of the Mayakoba Classic, an event that has had several names & sponsors over the years. 

The pictures on google make you believe that the course is coastal. It’s not that coastal. A Lot of the course sends you through a tropical, jungle environment as you snake through the property.

This makes El Chamaleon a very narrow course and subsequently a thinkers course. It’s all about hitting the fairway and getting into position off the tee. There are man-made lagoons and limestone canals that weave through the property, coming into play in all but 3 of the holes.

The greens are Paspalm which runs slow. Some of the players that putt well on this type of green include LONG, GRILLO (home player) and FINAU. The slow greens are also quite flat, which will allow players to get up and down from spots that could be considered short-sided on another course.

The key stat compared to other PGA Tour events is Driving Accuracy. This week El Camaleon golf course ranks 5th in importance off the tee but ranks between 32nd and 47th in any other statistic. 

This means, with the narrow fairways, and the harsh penalties for errant tee shots, we need to find players that are machine-like from the tee and can get into position. I am not as concerned with putting this week but will run the model with it weighted to see any findings. I will explain why I believe putting is equalised across the field a little more this week vs other PGA Tour events.

MAYAKOBA GOLF PREVIEW – THE WINNING FORMULA

When thinking about courses like this, I immediately just go to BRIAN HARMAN before I even look at rickrungood.com.

Fortunately, my gut isn’t too far away with HARMAN. You will see he ranks 12 in my model and the lefty is good off the tee albeit not long. He has some solid form with finishes of 23rd, 15th, 21st, 35th and 3rd at the FedEx St Jude. 

As I build my model, I have weighted towards off the tee; 18% driving accuracy and 10% SG OTT.

I also weighted towards SG at Chamlaeon historically at 8%. This is because this is a unique challenge, and one which certain players will come here looking forward to. HOVLAND has won here twice, HORSCHEL has 2 top 10s in the last 4 years and ex-champion TODD has followed up his win with an 8th and 11th place in recent years.

My Model – Based on the last 32 rounds

  • SG OTT – 10%
  • SG APR -10%
  • SG ARG – 5%
  • SG T2G -105
  • SG P 8%
  • SG OTT LAST 12 RDS – 5%
  • DRIVING ACCURACY- 18%
  • APR 75-100YDS – 5%
  • APR 100-125 YDS – 10%
  • PUTTING INSIDE 10’ – 6%
  • SG EL CHAMALEON – 8%

Top 25 from the model

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Russell Henley
  4. Aaron Wise
  5. Billy Horschel
  6. Kevin Streelman
  7. Collin Morikawa
  8. Viktor Hovland
  9. Martin Laird
  10. Matt Kuchar
  11. Keith Mitchell
  12. Aaron Rai
  13. Tom Hoge
  14. Jason Day
  15. Hayden Buckley
  16. Emiliano Grillo
  17. Brian Harman
  18. Joel Dahmen
  19. David Lipsky
  20. Will Gordon
  21. Brendon Todd
  22. Henrik Norlander
  23. Francesco Molinari
  24. Sebastian Munoz
  25. Greyson Sigg

WEATHER

The weather for Thursday and Friday looks wet with light showers. This won’t change my line too much when it comes to my picks. If anything the added element of light showers throughout both the first two days plays into that controlled ball striker that we are looking for. One that plots and paves his way around the course. 

We may have some thunder and lightning on Thursday, but it’s Monday night as I write this and things could well change. 

MAYAKONA GOLF PREVIEW – PICKS

TONY FINAU – 18/1 – BOYLE SPORTS

This week I wanted to lean towards someone at the top of the leaderboard. HOVLAND, FINAU, SCHEFFLER & MORIKAWA piqued my interest with MORIKAWA being someone I can see the market ignoring due to a disappointing 2022. A track like this does however suit his game because it’s all about position and pinpoint accuracy, something he has in abundance. 

However, I have gone with in-form FINAU at 18/1 to win. Finau ranked 2nd in my model, boasting more strokes gained in totality vs #1 SCHEFFLER. This year FINAU has won twice, which is a big deal. Many jokes have been slung at FINAU up until the Northern Trust in 2021 about whether he would actually win again! 

This year he has followed up with victories at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage, which were back-to-back. FINAU is an elite player, so it’s no surprise to see him picking up on average 1.73 shots on the field when it comes to T2G strokes gained. 

It could be said to put SCHEFF, TONY, COLLIN & HOVLAND in a hat and draw one out but TONY is 18/1 and SHEFF is at 9/1 on many bookies. Double the value and arguably better form from FINAU in the 2nd half of the year. 

RUSSELL HENLEY – 40/1 – EW 10 – BOYLE SPORTS

I could build a model for the Japan Ladies Tour and I am sure HENLEY would trend well in my model. He pops up most weeks without failure. There are players like him and the absent MITO & ZALATORIS who just seem to lead models even when not in form. 

HENLEY is one that I am more confident in this week due to the fact he is the most accurate off the tee in the whole field, based on the previous 6 months of golf. I need to pray that the often “cold” putter warms up. However, there aren’t any easier places to find your stroke than at El Chamaleon. 

At 40/1 at 10 places feels like good value for a player who is the epitome of accuracy. When it comes to putting I will explain in my next pick why I still see the value.

BRIAN HARMAN – 28/1 – EW 12 – BOYLE SPORTS

A similar thought process has led me to the already mentioned BRIAN HARMAN. To be fair, HARMAN has a little more about him than HENLEY, however, I have selected 12 places over 10 for odds of 28/1. Potentially a little light. 

He was 2nd last time out in Bermuda and has 2 other top 10s in the last 6 weeks. It feels like it’s coming for BRIAN. This is a course I am sure he targets as an opportunity for him to compete. Merely for the fact, bombers have their drivers taken off them for many of the holes. Also, 3 of the Par 3s are around 150 yards, which neutralises their advantages on typically longer Par 3s. 

HARMAN again is a player that plots around the course and can machine his way from tee to fairway to green and ranked 17th in my model.

He is trending in the right direction with his very large putter. +0.27 in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. However, inside 10 feet he has been very poor. Although I will see the trend as positive. Heading into a week on flat greens, where the stroke beats the read. 

EMILLIANO GRILLO – 40/1 – EW 6 – BOYLE SPORTS

GRILLO this year is a little of the forgotten man, albeit is this an event he has many top 10 finishes. He is also a very good putter when it comes to Paspalum greens.

With the absence of CARLOS ORTIZ, it will be GRILLO who is fueled by the love of the fans as the Mexican plays in his home country.

He also comes in this week with much better form, following a 4th at the Sandersons and a 5th at the BMW. GRILLO will be full of confidence as he once more does battle at El CAMALEON, looking for his 2nd win on tour, this would make sense to be the event where that could happen for the first time since 2015.

Statistically, GRILLO ticks boxes and is gaining 0.5 of a shot on the field over the last 50 rounds. More recently this number is 0.35 but 1.1 in shots gained in total. He ranks in my model 16th and when given the option of GRILLO, BUCKLEY, DAY & HOGE places slightly higher. In Mexico, I will go with GRILLO.

For me, GRILLO is S**T or bust. Therefore I have taken 40s EW on 6 places because I can see him winning or falling away as he often does across the season. If there was an event he would hang around, perhaps in front of the home fans is where this will happen.

KEVIN STREELMAN – 70/1 – EW 12 – BOYLE SPORTS

I am expecting a lot of support for STREELMAN as you can find him around 100/1 on some bookies. 

He ranked 6th in my model, which is why he was the first player I backed on Boyle Sports. He stats very similarly to HARMAN, whereby he is solid Tee to Green, particularly good off the tee but lacks from 10 feet. Ranking 97th in the field over the last 24 rounds. 

If you are going to be consistent with your approach, this is one to put your money down and hope. I believe with the slower Paspalum greens, the players will be taking a longer, firmer stroke. Therefore the 10 foot put maybe 12-15feet on a normal week. 

Once more as the greens are flat this is one where this difference can be closed but as for most weeks for players. STREELMAN will need to find his stroke.

Finally, I love how good STREELMAN is from 75-100 & 100-125 yards, ranking 9th and 12th respectfully vs the field in recent weeks. From 9 irons through the wedges he is dialled in and I hope this will correlate into a strong Par 3 performance this week and the birdies we need to compete.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW, PICKS AND MY STATS

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Before we explore the Bermuda Championship. Last week we did ok, another place with Kitayama & Jazz over in Mallorca. The Kitayama one was a tough pill to swallow, as he looked in place from halfway through his Friday round. 

A number of times now Kitty has hung around though. I remember when he battled Rahm in Mexico he just stuck with the pace, despite looking loose in places. I’m not sure about you but I watch his swing and sometimes I worry about the big block. Although a solid week for him again and another place for us!

Certainly for the hard and fast courses, I will be back on Kitty. We ended the week +2.5u and move on to the Bermuda & Portugal Masters.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Firstly, this Bermuda Championship field sucks. A combination of unreasonable recent travel for the tour (West Coast, East Coast & Japan in 3 weeks) and players wanting a break as we enter the winter period means we have a reduced field. I guess the players need a break at some point and Rory McIlory has called for one this week.

I also saw a cracking tweet yesterday, whereby the bookies were offering odds “Without Denny McCarthy.”

The course, Porta Royal in Burmuda, is a smidge shorter than the usual, at 6828 yards, and is played on a particular type of grass… any guesses? 

Last time out we saw LUCAS HERBERT win as the seaside course was battered by the Atlantic wind. Lucas is a big hitter, and certainly, a route of betting this week could be bombers and putters.

As a European, there are a couple of subplots I am interested in tracking. ADRIAN MERONK, the reputable DP World Tour player makes his first PGA Tour start. Looking at his DP performances I am not sure this course suits him but it will be great to see how he goes.

Aaron Rai has been a little out of form but has been slowly building his PGA Tour credentials. Finally, we see JOHN DALY and TOMMY 2 Gloves teeing it up. It’s as exciting as it can get.

The Winning Formula

Disclaimer – my process and analysis is unique to me. I will go through my favoured stats and players based on my experiences watching and betting them. Any additional credit goes to LOST FORE WORDS Podcast & INSIDE GOLF podcast when they run episodes, also to rickrungood.com where I pay for stats to play with. This article is for entertainment, and should be taken as such!

BRANDON TODD & LUCAS HERBERT have won the Bermuda Championship which enters its 4th year. These are two very different styles. The key this week, and what I will be doing is betting late. Play was stopped last year as PATRICK REED was coming through the field due to the high winds. With 48 hours to go, it looks like PM starters on Thursday & definitely Friday will be battling rain. 

This course is very exposed, therefore, I will take my 5 picks below and make any late tweaks if required. My initial picks are based on my formula (stats I pick and form).

Stats Considered

What can be drawn from the data we have is that Driving Accuracy and Putting are the two leading stats, ranking 14th and 10th out of 44 courses correlated. This leads me straight to AARON RAI, who is picking up a shot on the field, based on his previous 24 rounds. As stated he isn’t in the best of form but with a weaker field, I am sure he sees this as an opportunity to compete toward the top of the leaderboard.

Another player who is picking up a shot in both fields when on a correlated course is SCOTT BROWN. Don’t be fooled, he has many holes in his game of late, and returns to action following a WD, T54, and a MC. 

However, looking at which courses get the best of his game, you will find Port Royal & Sea Island inside his top 5, in terms of strokes gained data. I am not convinced with BROWN simply because he’s not scoring and the 250/1 odds back that up. 

I will certainly be considering JUSTIN LOWER, with the same method. Justin ticks the boxes in terms of strokes gained OTT and with the putter. He also enters in far better form, a T20 at the Shriners, T45 in the Sandersons & T4 at the Fortinet Championship. LOWER also finished with a T20 in 2021at this tournament and has several good finishes at Seaside courses, including a T6 on the KFT at the Lecom Coast Classic last year.

Finally, when it comes to form, due to the weaker field, it’s important to note players with T30 and T40 finishes in recent weeks. This is the standard that you will find. 

WHO IS LEADING THE STATS I LIKE

Looking more holistically at good drivers of the ball (strokes gained off the tee is my focus this week), the leaders based on their previous 50 rounds are (all stats are taken and give credit to rickrungood.com – an unbelievable tool!)

  • Kevin Yu
  • Adrian Meronk
  • Trevor Cone
  • Will Gordon
  • Patrick Rodgers 

In terms of players that enter today with the best putting record (again over their previous 50 rounds).

  • Eric Cole
  • SH Kim
  • Dennis McCarthy (Favourite)
  • Scott Brown
  • Adrian Meronk

Looking further down the list of players that are gaining +0.4 or more on the field on the putting green, some of which are striking the ball well, (again over 50 rounds for continuity).

  • Mark Hubbard, +0.77 in approach
  • Chesson Hadley +0.45 in approach
  • Adam Long + 0.33 in approach
  • Robby Shelton +0.43 around the green, +0.54 T2G & 1.42 overall

Finally, form is a little more challenging to work through this week. Many players do have big gaps from taking a break and with big players missing the typical T10 or T20 trains we look for are few and far between. 

THOMAS DETRY has a T10 at the Sandersons and a T20 at the Fortinet. SH KIM has a T20 at the Sandersons, which was backed up a week later on the ZOZO with a T4. Finally, PATRICK ROGERS was 16th placed on his last time out at the ZOZO and finished 4th here last year.

Bermuda Championship Weather

It will be warm as expected but recent reports indicate rain incoming on both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Herbert did the damage with a 65 on Friday & Saturday when the course was at its easiest, after the wind had blown on Thursday. 

The wind appears to be at its peak at 17mph on Friday, this is certainly playable, but I will monitor the rain and possible storms tomorrow. 

Bermuda championship weather

Waggle Duff

Waggle Duff this week is on the DP World Tour, and you can pick a team of 5 and submit for free on the link here! Good luck if you wish to play.

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Picks – EW 6 on BOYLE SPORTS

PATRICK ROGERS 25/1

JUSTIN LOWER 28/1

ROBBY SHELTON 40/1

GARRICK HIGGO 50/1

SCOTT BROWN 250/1 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

CJ CUP GOLF BETTING PREVIEW 2022

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Before heading into the CJ Cup betting preview, last week was a slight profit as CAMERON CHAMP placed at 100/1 EW. Following my wedding and honeymoon, it’s great to be back to some normality and golf writing. I have also just finished with a client conducting some product reviews and I am available for any further golf content work. If you need any support with tournament previews, course or product reviews, or any golf content/ media project, please let me know.

If you play Waggle Duff free fantasy golf and enjoy this CJ Cup betting preview, you can now submit teams on Twitter or the link here. Let’s get into the preview.

The CJ Cup boasts a strong field as the PGA Tour flies home. The non-stop nature of The Tour has arrived in Vegas, Japan and now South Carolina for a historically played tournament of Korea. I am sure some of the players may have a thing or two to say about the schedule.

THE COURSE – CONGAREE GC

The course this week is Congaree GC, situated amongst 2000 acres of pine forest that has been embedded into its environment by Tom Fazio. 7,655 yards await the players and I believe you will find punters typically favouring the bombers.

However, the conditions of the track are usually firm and fast, like we saw when Garrick Higgo won here last summer when the Palmetto Championship was played on this course. 

Higgo won with -11 last summer. I suspect with slightly softer conditions and an exceptionally stronger field. We will find that the winning score is in excess of -15. 

The length of the course is certainly still a factor, that and the tight lies and run-offs you will find around the green. Inventive players like JORDAN SPIETH and TYRRELL HATTON have caught my eye when researching the player pool for this very reason. 

Players that do struggle around the greens, particularly striking such tight chip shots will struggle. Perhaps SCHEFFLER can return to the party, I recall his chipping around Augusta being immense, his little hat popping up from those large swales as the ball checks up to the pin. A similar challenge faces the players this week.

6 of the top 10 arrive in town for a field size of 78, there is no cut like the ZOZO last week. It is a mouthwatering field, Rory looks more like Rory every time I watch him, Thomas is due and typically wins this time of year, Scheffler is world number 1 and Rahm has just come off a win in Spain. As an Englishman, when I see the east coast and a field like this, I think, what a lovely Sunday evening I have to come.

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CJ CUP BETTING PREVIEW – PICKS THIS WEEK

SPIETH CHIPS AND PUTTS TO VICTORY

Looking into the course and some of the lies the players will face around the course, I like Jordan Speith, and he is my first pick in this CJ Cup betting preview. At 25/1, I think we find good value on the nose. My worry this week, is simply a winner will come from all those below 25/1. Simply put, even players like WEBB SIMPSON, CHRIS KIRK and last week’s winner KEEGAN BRADLEY who can all win, are playing the elites this week. 

SPIETH looked superb at the Presidents Cup and despite being a different format, showed that the fighting spirit is very much there. He also is a player in that 25/1 – 40/1 range that can go toe to toe with the rest of the field.

JUSTIN THOMAS WINS AGAIN IN THE OFF-SEASON

Another potential headline is JUSTIN THOMAS 12/1 getting yet another win during the off-season, 9 of his 15 PGA Tour wins have come between September – February, and JT has been playing well of late. 2 of those wins do include the CJ CUP, when the competition was played at Nine Bridges in Korea.

I like this course and this moment for JT. My golfing gut says he will go well and the winner will come from the top of the pack. Our job is to simply shuffle them. What I don’t like as I write this CJ Cup betting preview, is the price at 12s. It’s again, on the nose.

TYRRELL KEEPS HIS COOL TO FINALLY CLOSE

Last year TYRRELL HATTON 40/1 ripped it around Congatree and will be confident that this course will suit his game. We know from his win at the flagship DP World Tour event, the PGA BMW at Wentworth that this treelined style of course suits his eye.

The usually reliable putter of HATTON’S left him that weekend, but he is putting well of late, gaining 0.7 shots in the last 50 rounds on the field. He also is another player that I believe has the attitude to compete with the very best. If you find HATTON in the mix come Sunday you know he will relish the chance to do battle, whoever it is. 

Back this side of the pond, Tyrrell once more impressed on the links courses while playing the Alfred Dunhill Links Pro-Am on the DP World Tour. I did laugh as his father was caught swearing at a wayward drive (I wonder where he got that from). The course correlation is minimal in this example, but again those firm tight lies around the green will test the players and I like HATTON in this spot.

TRUST YOUR CJ CUP MODEL…. RIGHT?

As I built my model, certain players kept popping up. That was SCOTT STALLING 66/1 & KURT KITAYAMA 80/1 10 places EW.

Anyone who has followed my work for some time knows I love KITTY and we go way back. I have backed KITAYAMA since his European Tour days. He is a sneaky long player whose short game trended deliciously this summer. Something he will need to rely on this week as I suspect difficult pitches and chips will find all the players.

In his last 16 rounds, spread over some time, KITAYAMA has gained 1.8 shots T2G and 1.09 ATG. If we can find his putter, he has a chance to keep up with the pace. I would consider him for the T20 market or an EW at 10/1

A final pick is SCOTT STALLINGS, I have been surprised when I do play with rickrungood or look on the PGA Tour website, to find STALLINGS continuing to pop up on the models. But then I remembered, he has been playing very well! 2nd place at THE BMW and 3 top 10s in 3 weeks during July shows that STALLINGS finished 2022 in fantastic form.

Finally, my 0.5u on Fowler will continue until the job is complete.

I hope you enjoy the golf this week, it should be a proper cracker. If you haven’t submitted your Waggle Duff team, you can by tweeting @WaggleDuff or by filling out the form on this link.

Good luck with your plays.

Matt Tizzard

Founder: WaggleDuff.com 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

Kenya Savannah Classic 2021 – GOLF BETTING preview and TIPS

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Written by @MattTizzard for @WaggleDuff

WAGGLE DUFF fantasy golf returns to The PGA TOUR this week, you can see the format for the DELL WGC MATCHPLAY here.

Below is the betting preview for the KENYA SAVANNAH CLASSIC

KENYA SAVANNAH CLASSIC – BETTING PREVIEW

Déjà vu, here we are again. Karen Club, Kenya for our 2nd instalment of European Tour action from Africa. For the players, it’s a short 1-day break then back to it, as this event is run from TUESDAY – FRIDAY. The short 6900 course will again be a birdie fest, but we do expect some rain and maybe some storm delays on Tuesday.

I liked my plays last week, OTAEGUI, RAI and HANSEN threatened top 6 at times but didn’t quite get there. I did get carried away with covering a number of other players who were towards tiple digits. TONG LI withdrew and I will not continue my support, MOLINARI I poked at early Thursday morning, but he missed the cut.

I did catch HARDING after day 1 at 18/1 and I felt this was good value for money with SOUTH AFRICANS performing typically well. HARDING closed out a bogey free 66 to get the win on Sunday.

This week, I am going to go a little left wing away from the popular picks (RAI, HANSEN, VEERMAN) but give myself good value in returns. This course and field give you an opportunity to do. With many players threatening over the course of the MAGICAL KENYA OPEN.

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WHAT WE LEARNT FROM LAST WEEK

It is a short course and a birdie fest so being good off the Tee is key. Players that ripped apart the par 5’s and drove right down or on the short par 4s seemed to pick up the birdies necessary. The beast that is NIENABER ticks this box and is 33/1.

A lot of players can make the birdies on what is an easier course to climb the leaderboard. Again, I think this is a field to bet low but cover with many outsiders who have the game to potentially threaten, HEND gets there at 150/1.

I have a mix in my picks this week, although tempting to go with HARDING and KITAYAMA after last week, I am going to pass. I never like backing back-to-back winners and after watching KITAYAMA I did feel he was fighting his swing, particularly off the tee.

He was using his hands a lot through impact to flick the ball straight. I am not sure this is sustainable over another 4 days of tournament play, starting less than 48 hours after the MAGICAL KENYA OPEN.

SUMMARY OF PICKS

  • Wilco NIENABER 33/1 – (0.5u)
  • Niklas LEMKE 50/1 (0.75u E/W)
  • Pep ANGLES 70/1 – (0.25u E/W)
  • Soren KJELDSEN 125/1 – (0.25u E/W)
  • Scott HEND 150/1 – (0.25u E/W)

OTHER PLAYERS CONSIDERED

  • Justin HARDING
  • Aaron RAI
  • Adrian OTAEGUI
  • Dean BURMESTER

KEY STATS

GIR

Putting

Birdie Performance

Last week’s performance indicator

THE COURSE

Parkland style, tight but not as tight as appears on TV

Small greens, pushes me towards GIR stats

Short course compared to most.

RECENT WINNERS MAGICAL KENYAN OPEN (PLAYED ON SAME COURSE)

2021 –  Justin Harding

2019 – Guido Migliozzi

2018 – Lorenzo Gagli

2017 – Aaron Rai

2016 – Sebastian Soderberg

2015 – Haydn Porteous

2015 – Jake Roos

2013 – Jordi Garcia Pinto

2012 – Seve Benson

2011 – Mihiel Bothma

2010 – Robert Dinwiddie

Wilco NIENABER 33/1 – (0.5u)

Ticks the boxes for me off the Tee. Can rip the course apart if kept straight.  A little undetected in his -10 total for last week, however constantly a popular pick and tip.

Niklas LEMKE 50/1 (0.75u E/W)

LEMKE came T33 last week, remember it is the same course, and this was his worst finish in his last 5 appearances. LEMKE’s recent finishes are T9 (Cyprus), T11 (Joburg Open), T8 (Dubai DP World), T9 (Qatar Masters).

He also made more than enough birdies to challenge last week, just made a number of mistakes. LEMKE is in good form and if he can go a step further can get inside the Top 6. A good each way bet at 50/1/

Pep ANGLES 70/1 – (0.25u E/W)

Solid performance last week finishing T8th. A good price of 70/1 for ANGLES and the game to show. ANGLES ticks the boxes with the length and accuracy of the Tee and kept it quite straight last week. He ranked 6th T2G on the Friday and he ranked 1st off the tee on the Saturday, which indicates the swing is in place.

His approach play let him down, and that was the difference between his performance and KITAYAMA, particularly in round 1, ANGLES ranked 101st in approach play.

ANGLES is a recent winner on the Challenge Tour and this course has historically been a Challenge Tour venue. That combined with a watered-down field for the European Tour, there is no reason he can’t go one better this week.

Soren KJELDSEN 125/1 – (0.25u E/W)

A little emotional pick, but I noticed KJLEDSEN T14 after round 1 last week. I also looked back at his cards and he only dropped 6 shots all week. Where he failed was taking advantages of the Par 5’s and short Par 4’s which the bigger hitters will do.

When play starts tomorrow there is a good chance that rain, and storms may come into play. Someone like KJELDSEN with his tight compact swing and the way he plots round the course could get himself into contention. Particularly if those conditions come into pay.

If he can have a hot week with the putter, KJLEDSEN will be in with a chance, he is always going to find the greens in regulation, just maybe with slightly longer putts!

Scott HEND 150/1 – (0.25u E/W)

Exceptional price, considering HEND was right up there until the last round. He closed with a 73.

Although let’s not ignore the previous 67, 64, 68.

Within that 68 he effectively dropped 4 shots on the field on the short par 4 10th and par 5 11th. The game is there to pick the sticks up tomorrow and compete.

MAGICAL KEYNA OPEN – BETTING PREVIEW

By @MattTizzard

For this weeks PGA TOUR Betting Preview click here – by @GolfBets101

MAGICAL KENYAN OPEN – BETTING PREVIEW

The European Tour heads to Africa now and begins with the Magical Kenya Open. Certainly, one from the B side of the European Tour schedule. This event has flicked between the Safari Tour, Challenge Tour and now European Tour . Still, we shake things up on WAGGLE DUFF and feature the Kenya Open this week.

There is a reason to put a case forward for many 3 digit players this week, its very exciting. Certainly a week to bet small and go for the higher odds players. I have tried to not get carried away, but you can make a case for and I have considered the following;

  • McEvoy – Tweeted about him earlier! 150/1
  • Kjeldsen – 150/1
  • Lars Van Meijel 150/1
  • Bjerregaard 175/1
  • Rithammer 175/1

However, below is who I have backed. This week I have got a little emotional over OTAEGUI and TONG LI. I believe statistically the other 3 are good performers!

SUMMARY OF PICKS

  • Louis De Jager – 55/1 – 1pt EW
  • Joachim B Hansen – 40/1 pt EW
  • Aaron Rai – 28/1 – 1pt EW
  • Adrian Otaegui – 40/1 – 0.5pt EW
  • Hao Tong Li – 125/1 – 0.5pt EW

KEY STATS

GIR

Putting

Birdie Performance

THE COURSE

Parkland style, tight but not as tight as appears on TV

Small greens, pushes me towards GIR stats

Short course compared to most.

RECENT WINNERS

2019 – Guido Migliozzi

2018 – Lorenzo Gagli

2017 – Aaron Rai

2016 – Sebastian Soderberg

2015 – Haydn Porteous

2015 – Jake Roos

2013 – Jordi Garcia Pinto

2012 – Seve Benson

2011 – Mihiel Bothma

2010 – Robert Dinwiddie

Louis De Jager 55/1 (1pt E/W)

Louis scored highest on the Golf Betting System model that I used for this event. He was also 4th on the official model used by Steve & Paul. The key difference is Driving accuracy will play a part in leading me towards some of my other picks below.

Louis flicks between African and European Tours, which I hope will put him right at home this week.

The South African doesn’t smash the trend of straight hitters, he’s a bit of a monster rather than someone that plots his way around the course. Yet, across the key stats of Driving, Approach, Putting, and Scrambling he has improved from 2019 into 2020.

He has made 9 of his last 10 cuts, which indicates the game is there He can now push on from the T10 in Cyprus late last year.

Joachim B Hansen 30/1 (1pt E/W)

I watched HANSEN at the BMW PGA last year and thought he looked excellent. Since then he has won the JOBURG OPEN and finished 9th last week in Qatar. Players in the typically do well here. I think HANSEN will relish returning to Africa and will be full of confidence come Thursday morning. He also smashes the ball striking stats, which will be important this week.

HANSEN had a good week last week and enters the Kenya Open in good form. His approach play was excellent, and this is a key stat for this week.

Aaron Rai – 28/1 (1pt E/W)

Ok, people know I like Rai a lot. Now using the GolfBettingSystem.com model, Aaron Rai ranks highly due to his putting stats.

Aaron also has a good finish this year, coming T18 in the Workday WGC, against the big boys may I add. A little like Adrian Otaegui he typically starts seasons slow and grows into them. I think this shift following such a good performance in a WGC event will give him a boost.

Aaron is great off the tee, good into the green and good with the putter. I have weighted GIR and putting as the key stats and he is 10th on my model.

Adrian Otaegui 40/1 (1pt E/W)

Ok, my last 2 picks are more on the gut then the stats. I know this isn’t what you read this for, but this is my justification! I would add, I was right with Spieth EW at the WASTE MANAGEMENT Phoenix Open a few weeks ago!

Apart from 2018, recent winners have been towards the -20 mark. What this means is players that can make birdies will do well, and we can look no further than Italian OTAEGUI. I said OTAEGUI starts seasons slow, and yet again he has. So potentially its now time to see him find a groove. Changing from the sandy Arabian courses to the more parkland Karen Club will suit him. There is also a correlation between tight Italian & Spanish courses and good performers in Kenya.

Adrian does frustrate me, in the last 3 weeks he has shot rounds in the 60s, so the game is there. It’s the consistency. I thought that given this week is a bit more of a parkland course, accuracy off the tee is important.

Either way, OTAEGUI has the long game and ranks 11th off the tee this season on Tour. He can certainly put himself in position. Also the KAREN CLUB isn’t the longest course on tour, which will suit his short, accurate play.

Everyone remembers what he did in Scotland, going crazy low to win. It’s in the locker and 40/1 against this field is a good bet.

Hao Tong Li – 125/1 (0.5pt E/W)

Before I start, Li is WELL OUT OF FORM but I have some justification.

It feels like Li has been kicking about for 10 years, well he actually has. He played when he was 14 in the Volvo China Open. This means now he is still only 25 years old, although he has a lot of experiences that can arm him for a big 2021. He’s played in all the majors, WGC and even in the Olympics. Between such events, he holds 6 wins across the European Tour, OneAsia Tour and PGA Tour China.

LI lead the PGA Championship last year by 2 strokes after round 1 last year. He has the experience and game to do well, despite a lack of form and maybe some motivation.

On paper, he doesn’t smash anything so more a gut pick. Either way, 125/1 is a ridiculous price! Surely if I stick with him his good week will come and we will have a lovely payout, right? (+EV pick?)

This PRE – SHOT ROUTINE helped me play SCRATCH GOLF

In a series that I have always wanted to write, I am going to write a reflection piece that describes I did that helped me achieve a handicap of scratch. I don’t believe many people really talk in depth about what exactly did to get results and when they do, it’s usually a flash Instagram teenager or an interview with an Ex – Tour player, that can be very difficult to relate to.

This first article is all about the pre-shot routine. This wasn’t something I really took seriously until I was in my twenties. I was a good player, I played some good rounds, I played a lot of bad rounds (it was only 0.1 added to the handicap for a bad round then) but I believe there was some key principles that I stuck to, which allowed me to kick on and become a scratch golfer.

In this article I discuss my pre-shot routine. This is something I am sure golfers know all about. It’s a pattern of behaviour from when you arrive at your golf ball until you have struck your shot. We see Sergio and his waggle, Matt Wolff with his dip and Bryson with his big practise swings. However, I did not realise how powerful the pre-shot routine is for your golf game until I used it consistently and effectively.

This was the routine;

  1. My bag arrives at my ball, this is a trigger to switch my mind on
  2. Decide what shot I was going to hit and what club, I would literally picture the shot in my mind
  3. 2 practise swings behind the ball, feeling what I wanted to achieve with the swing
  4. Pick a spot 6 inches in front of the ball, that is in line with the hole
  5. Align club face with the spot and draw an invisible line in my mind
  6. Align feet parallel with line created between the “6-inch spot” and my ball
  7. 2 looks at the target
  8. Commit to shot

There are some key advantages to developing a pre-shot routine. Firstly, it allows you to enter your shot with the right mindset, your routine needs a trigger that brings your mind into focus and into your shot. For me that was my bag banging down on the ground and the stand pinging out. It could have been however a throw up of the grass or even just the words “OK” being said to yourself when you arrive at your ball. It doesn’t matter what it is, but the trigger needs to prepare your mind to play the golf shot and enter your routine.

The pre-shot routine also has physical benefits, my routine allowed me to align my club face DIRECTLY AT THE TARGET, which meant I was more consistent with my alignment to the flag and fairway, subsequently I hit straighter shots more often. Simples.

However, it also meant on days when the swing wasn’t going well I could rule out alignment as a factor for poor performance. 

Finally building a routine you trust and feel comfortable doing will prepare you to play well under pressure. By having a routine you do with your mates on a Thursday, you are also developing your mind, body, alignment and swing for when you play in a Medal or any competition.

A study from Weinberg and Gould 2003, founded that college basketball players made their free-throw 74% of the time when a pre-shot routine was used vs 68% when they didn’t.

I did and still do this routine every time I practise, play 9 holes with a few beers, or tee it up in a Medal. The biggest challenge is sticking with it when things aren’t going so well or you have just had a bad shot. However, I know it works for me with the lads and it works for me under pressure.

I would strongly recommend building a pre-shot routine that works for you and COMMIT to it for weeks, months and years.

 Not only did it allow me to be physically more repeatable, but mentally more repeatable no matter what shot I was facing. So build a routine you feel comfortable doing, and stick with it!

Matt Tizzard

Matt Tizzard |Founder: WAGGLE DUFF

Twitter: @MattTizzard

Insta: @MattTizzardGolf

How to play WAGGLE DUFF’s free Fantasy Golf

BASIC RULES

Waggle Duff is a 100% free to play online Fantasy Golf Game, played through Twitter (@waggleduff)

Each week pick 5 players and tweet them to @WaggleDuff with the hashtag #waggle69, like this…

At the end of each days play. The scores will be updated on the WAGGLEDUFF website and communicated on Twitter.

WAGGLE DUFF is played across both EUROPEAN and PGA Tours, you can keep track of which tournament WAGGLE DUFF is covering here.

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bronson burgoon

REGARDING YOUR 5 PICKS!

Earn points for your players position daily, with the points system below.

Scores will be published and updated daily here

This is 100% free and for fun, to build an online golf community who enjoys watching top level golf. I hope you enjoy playing!

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Sony Open Hawaii – PREVIEW

Please submit your teams of 5 before the 1st Tee Shot on Thursday, entry list, odds and preview below. Remember, first pick is your captain (double points) and 2 players must be 50/1 or greater.

Good luck and thank you for playing!

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The Sony Open in Hawaii will kick off the 2021 Waggle Duff season. Professional golf on the whole will continue to look strange on our TV (at least we won’t have the made-up crowd noises like we see on the Darts) as the players get to grips with playing behind closed(ish) doors.

These are the events where the cold reality of COVID take effect. The Sony OPEN is Hawaii’s biggest charity golf fundraiser, and by having a reduced attendance (No pro-am, spectators and reduced volunteers) the numbers they would like to raise will not be at the same levels.

What we need is the pros to put on a show like last year, where we saw some real drama down the stretch.

Cameron Smith got up and down from the bunker on 18, for a clutch birdie and ensure a play-off with his final day playing partner, Brandan Steele. A play-off Smith won despite a huge block of the tee. He had to keep his 2nd shot low but he managed to pitch and run a beautiful shot from under the tree to 8 feet.

This kind of drama is what Hawaii and Golf Fans will need, especially as the sport is riding the crest of a wave of popularity, some big names are travelling to the island, including Collin Morikawa, Sergio Garcia, Pat Reed, oh and Vijay Singh!

PLAYERS & ODDS

Webb Simpson11/1
Collin Morikawa14/1
Harris English14/1
Patrick Reed14/1
Daniel Berger16/1
Joaquin Niemann20/1
Sung-Jae Im20/1
Abraham Ancer22/1
Hideki Matsuyama25/1
Kevin Kisner25/1
Ryan Palmer25/1
Cameron Smith28/1
Russell Henley30/1
Billy Horschel33/1
Matt Kuchar33/1
Zach Johnson33/1
Adam Scott35/1
Sergio Garcia35/1
Brendon Todd40/1
Emiliano Grillo40/1
Charles Howell45/1
Lanto Griffin45/1
Brian Harman50/1
Erik Van Rooyen50/1
Sebastian Munoz50/1
Jason Kokrak60/1
Russell Knox60/1
Talor Gooch60/1
Marc Leishman66/1
Patton Kizzire66/1
Tom Hoge66/1
Carlos Ortiz70/1
Chez Reavie70/1
Scott Piercy70/1
J.T Poston80/1
Keegan Bradley80/1
Kevin Na80/1
Matthew NeSmith80/1
Rory Sabbatini80/1
Si Woo Kim80/1
Branden Grace100/1
Brandt Snedeker100/1
Cameron Davis100/1
James Hahn100/1
Kyle Stanley100/1
Sepp Straka100/1
Cheng-Tsung Pan110/1
Charley Hoffman125/1
Chris Kirk125/1
Henrik Norlander125/1
Jim Furyk125/1
Mackenzie Hughes125/1
Matt Jones125/1
Stewart Cink125/1
Takumi Kanaya125/1
Brendan Steele150/1
Brian Stuard150/1
Jhonattan Vegas150/1
Michael Thompson150/1
Peter Malnati150/1
Austin Cook175/1
Bo Hoag175/1
Doug Ghim175/1
Nick Taylor175/1
Pat Perez175/1
Richy Werenski175/1
Adam Schenk200/1
Andrew Landry200/1
Brian Gay200/1
Brice Garnett200/1
Danny Lee200/1
Harry Higgs200/1
Hudson Swafford200/1
Mark Hubbard200/1
Troy Merritt200/1
Vaughn Taylor200/1
XinJun Zhang200/1
Andrew Putnam250/1
Anirban Lahiri250/1
Keith Mitchell250/1
Kramer Hickok250/1
Luke List250/1
Nate Lashley250/1
Robert Streb250/1
Roger Sloan250/1
Ryo Ishikawa250/1
Sunghoon Kang250/1
William Gordon250/1
Aaron Baddeley300/1
Bronson Burgoon300/1
Chris Baker300/1
Hank Lebioda300/1
J.J Spaun300/1
Jamie Lovemark300/1
Jim Herman300/1
Jimmy Walker300/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee300/1
Mark Anderson300/1
Rob Oppenheim300/1
Ryan Armour300/1
Ted Potter300/1
Tyler McCumber300/1
Chase Seiffert400/1
David Hearn400/1
Fabian Gomez400/1
Joseph Bramlett400/1
Nick Watney400/1
Robby Shelton400/1
Ryosuke Kinoshita400/1
Sam Ryder400/1
Satoshi Kodaira400/1
Scott Brown400/1
Tim Wilkinson400/1
Wesley Bryan400/1
Ben Taylor500/1
Brandon Hagy500/1
D.J. Trahan500/1
Davis Love500/1
Grayson Murray500/1
Jerry Kelly500/1
Jinichiro Kozuma500/1
Kevin Tway500/1
Michael Gligic500/1
Rhein Gibson500/1
William McGirt500/1
Y.E. Yang500/1
Hunter Mahan750/1
K.J Choi750/1
Matt Every750/1
Nelson Ledesma750/1
Rafael Campos750/1
Bo Van Pelt1000/1
Michael Kim1000/1
Mike Weir1000/1
Parker McLachlin1000/1
Shane Bertsch1000/1
Vijay Singh1000/1
Martin Trainer1500/1
Eric Dugas2000/1
Evan Kawai2000/1
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THE COURSE

Waialae Country Club is a historic 7044 yards which has been hosting the Professional Golf Open in Hawaii since 1965. As we have seen at the ToC last week, the ball is running, and I am expecting wedge play to be a key factor to success and consequently another -20 + winning score. This has been common over recent years, albeit from last year which was won at -11.

One defence is that Waialae only has 2 par 5’s which must be taken advantages of, including the Par 5 9th. Albeit this is a short par 5 it has out of bounds both sides, so if players try to step on it and go array, this can lead to drop shots.

The palm tree lined course is flat and by the seaside, so another traditional defence for the course is the winds that blow across the pacific. However, it does not look like this will be the case this week… Happy birdie hunting boys.

RECENT WINNERS

Only 5 players have won the Sony OPEN multiple times, this includes Hubert Green, Corey Pavin, Lanny Wadkins, Ernie Els & Jimmy Walker, who won in both 2014 & 2015.

2020 – Cameron Smith

2019 – Matt Kuchar

2018 – Patton Kizzire

2017 – Justin Thomas

2016 – Fabian Gomz

Good luck to everyone joining us for Waggle Duff this season and of course this week! Please submit your 5 picks to @waggleduff on twitter before the first t-shot is played. Full rules can be found here.

Have a good week

Matt Tizzard

@waggleduff

@MattTizzard

MIRACLE on the 17th – A Short COVID Golf Story

18 months ago was the last time I played Golf with my Dad and after this game, it could be 18 months until we play again!

Fortunately, we managed to play just before the most recent lockdown, Lockdown3 that started in early January. Teeing off at 8am, playing the back 9 of the tree-lined, Leighton Buzzard Golf Club. On a chilly and fresh morning, the mix of woodland and parkland ground soft from the recent rain that has soaked through the course over the previous 2 weeks of downpour.

My Dad announces on the 10th tee that we shall be playing matchplay, closely followed by, “and you will be giving me 3 shots.” “Well hang on, I haven’t played since June and that’s my only game last year” I protested. Dad was quick to remind me that my previous handicap before surrendering membership in 2017 was 3, alas he got his way.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that I find myself 2 down to the old boy as we stand on the 17th tee. Although, I wasn’t really bothered, it was great to be out spending the time and talk with my Dad this Christmas. Having not seen any of my family due to the COVID lockdown this was a fortunate safe and legal way to see him and do something we both enjoy.

Emotions aside, this is where our game takes an unexpected turn. The 17th at Leighton Buzzard is 260 yards Par 4, but is tight. You must use an 8 iron of the tee and then wedge on. There is the option to go for the green, which being 2 down I elect. The problem is that anything left will be lost and anything right, drops down a bank which is around a 20ft drop, there is no margin for error.

Looking down the hole shoes how narrow the 17th at Leighton Buzzard GC is

Dad finds the fairway with his little iron and I pull out the hybrid. Unfortunately, I push it ever so slightly, and the ball rolls halfway down the right-hand bank, green high.

The relentless old boy hits a full wedge which lands 3 feet right of the hole and spins due to the delightful little draw he’s manufactured and ends 1 foot away. Instead of “shaking hands/ accepting defeat from 2 meters” I tell him that I will play my ball. He laughs, picks up his gimmie birdie and stands on the edge of the green, peering down towards me, halfway down the bank.

I have a little jump up to check where the hole is because you cannot see the flag from down there and I pull out the 58 degree. A big swing and a flop and the ball goes up and I notice, it looks pretty good, certainly in line with the flag. CRACK! I hear the ball strike the flag! “YOU ARE JOKING” I hear the old boy shout, and as I look at him on the edge of the green, his hands have flown to behind his head. The flop has bounced perfectly into the hole, and we have an eagle. The match continues.

I will save the details of 18, but the old boy is now rattled and is on the green putting for bogey. That won’t be enough old boy, and we have a surprising yet honourable half.

The match didn’t really matter, we had a lovely time together, it was fantastic to catch up with him and order a sausage roll from the half-way hut again. A throwback, a blessing and a great golfing story to come out the back of it

Matt Tizzard

@MattTizzard

Founder: WAGGLE DUFF

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WAGGLE DUFF – SEASON 1 PRIZES

Hi all

The first season of WAGGLE DUFF will be running from the Sony Open in Hawaii, on the 14th January 2021, and ends with The PLAYERS Championships, ending 14th March 2021. You can see a full WAGGLE DUFF Schedule here.

You may have heard on the WAGGLE Podcast, for SEASON 1 of WAGGLE DUFF 2021, I am delighted to announce 2 prizes!

  • 1st Place – An Online Coaching Lesson with PGA Professional Freddie Meikle
  • 2nd Place – A dozen WAGGLE DUFF logo’d Srixon AD333 golf balls
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It’s great that Freddie is happy to donate some of his time to our winner, ensuring that WAGGLE DUFF will always be open to all and free for all!

This year we are looking for sponsors who may wish to donate a prize to WAGGLE DUFF or Sponsor SEASON 2 or 3. If you know someone with a brand they want to reach the golf market or a service they wish to demonstrate, talk to me! I would be happy to help!

For more information on the benefits of being a WAGGLE DUFF sponsor below

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