DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING TIPS

fantasy golf

A glance back and a look ahead

Thriston Lawrence, for me, last week, really left me hanging off the edge of a cliff, unfortunately, we fell off. Three great rounds from Lawrence left us Tied 4th going into Sunday, and I was sure to cash even the each way by the skin of our teeth before we literally fell off that cliff, gutted. 

It was interesting on Sunday to see Tommy Fleetwood and Ryan Fox battling it out, both favourites at the start of the week and it confirms how hard this week it’s going to be with such a strong field ahead of us and expect we are not going to find anything past 30/1 to win in Dubai this week. 

Season’s Finale in Dubai

As ever, the DP World Tour Championship venue is the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates. The course is one of the biggest we see on all tours, to be honest, measuring at 7,675 yards. We have a mix of stunning par 3’s like the island hole, similar to what we see at the Players Championship. We have massive par 4’s like the 9th, which measures 500 yards and huge par 5’s, which surely means we need our picks to have some length here. 

The Greens are large and undulating, so we can also look for here some good putters, and we are not short, of course form round here, so I have no issue looking back at previous years. Each winner here has ranked in the top 10 for Driving Distance on the week, which undoubtedly comes into play here. To give an early indication of this, the top 5 on driving distance in this field are Rory, Arnaus, Fox, Mansell, and Kitayama. 

On the other hand, if you are good enough and straight enough, you can make a significant impact here even if you are not the longest. 

Rory McIlroy leads the DP World Tour rankings from Ryan Fox after the Kiwi’s runner-up finish last week at the Nedbank; no one else is really close enough to have a top 10 and impact those two at the top of the rankings unless they both have awful week’s, which is very unlikely. The closest player is Matt Fitzpatrick, in 3rd, whom we haven’t seen for a few weeks; who knows where his game may be at and whether he can make an impact on the finale and the big prize of the best player on the DP World Tour. 

So McIlroy heads the betting for this event outright, and it’s essential to factor in this a no cut event, so slow starters can come back from the pack and win this. However, with 10/3 looking as the likely best price for Rory, everyone is not expecting Rory to have a slow start. John Rahm is at 5/1 and is Rory’s nearest challenger in terms of the betting. John Rahm is a bit of a mentality monster at the moment, and his putter is hot enough to win this at a canter. I expect players like Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland in behind to have an impact, and who would write off Ryan Fox with the form he has been in this year. Tommy Fleetwood comes into this with a recent win, much like Jordan Smith, who surely is a great price at 30/1. 

Previous Winners & Prices. 2021: Collin Morikawa, 15/2; 2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 16/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 7/1; 2018: Danny Willett, 80/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 12/1; 2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 66/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2014: Henrik Stenson, 17/2; 2013: Henrik Stenson, 11/1; 2012: Rory McIlroy, 6/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 40/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 50/1.

So then, let’s get into the meat of it…

So for this I think we are looking at a winning score of around -20, I’m expecting, therefore, plenty of birdies and not many mistakes from those guys at the top of the leaderboard. I feel like I say straight and long every week in these previews but I for sure, expect the best players to be the ones putting the best numbers up Strokes gained Tee to Green over anything else recently. 

Length has to be a factor as mentioned earlier and Par 5 scoring also has to be a vital cog in the winner’s game this week. Putting the ball in the right place for the second shot, ‘the lay up’ on the par 5’s is going to be everything for those slightly shorter hitters and that aspect will really come into play, emphasis on both length and Par 5 scoring definitely in the model for me. 

  • SG Tee to Green
  • SG Off the tee
  • Driving Distance
  • Putting
  • Course Form
  • OWGR
  • Recent Form

Here is how that model looks for Top 25, along with their average betting odds; 

1. Rory Mcilroy 7/2

2. Matthew Fitzpatrick 9/1

3. Shane Lowry 14/1

4. Jon Rahm 9/2

5. Tommy Fleetwood 14/1

6. Adrian Meronk 70/1

7. Marcel Schneider 110/1

8. Eddie Pepperell 75/1

9. Jordan L Smith 28/1

10. Kurt Kitayama 33/1

11. Tyrrell Hatton 16/1

12. Minwoo Lee 33/1

13. Ryan Fox 28/1

14. Fabrizio Zanotti 100/1

15. Robert Macintyre 33/1

16. Adrian Otaegui 55/1

17. Thriston Lawrence 80/1

18. Richie Ramsay 70/1

19. Oliver Wilson 275/1

20. Richard Mansell 80/1

21. Jorge Campillo 200/1

22. Rasmus Hojgaard 28/1

23. Antoine Rozner 70/1

24. Sam Horsfield 75/1

25. Victor Perez 75/1

This week’s Tips 

Before I got into who I am backing this week I want to make something very clear. If Rory McIlroy gets beaten here someone has had to play very very good golf, even if he wasn’t no1 in the world right now, where his game is at and how well all parts of his game have come together every time he steps onto that first tee it’s almost unbeatable. If you can get some value on Rory this week, even if it’s just as cover it is advisable but let’s see if we can get him beaten by one of my 4 picks or even cashing in on the other markets, let’s go ! 

Viktor Hovland – 14/1 (3pts Win)

As you will notice, Viktor is not in my model, but he will not be in many models, just because most of his golf is played on the PGA Tour. In fact, he has only played on the DP World tour 4 times this year and what I saw of him at the Wentworth back in September in a similar field is enough for me to back him here at 14/1. That week at the BMW Champs, he finished tied for 4th and his approach game was just unstoppable. If we can get a repeat of that along with landing some putts, I see him giving a Rory a big head to head here on Sunday in Dubai. If you tie that along with the fact he is nearly as long as Rory and definitely as long as Rahm, 14/1 compared to the odds of the latter, it has to be a steal. If you look at Viktor’s last appearance here in 2020, he was runner up in total strokes gained against the whole field and he finished tied 3rd. If wasn’t for a couple of holes where Fitzpatrick was better around the green that year then certainly he would have won, I’m sure. Viktor has the game to win this and his around the green play has only got better since his last effort here, I really fancy him this week. 

Tommy Fleetwood – 18/1 (2pts Win)

I’m so happy to back the Hovland play with my main man Fleetwood. Tommy has just come off a win last week, morale will be through the roof and what I saw from him on Sunday, how calm and assured he looked even in spots where he didn’t want to be I am happy to have him in my card this week. Honestly, this spot could of been Ryan Fox who doesn’t stop winning but what I seen from Tommy a couple of weeks back in South Carolina, where he was putting the lights out, that all changes this 2nd pick for me. We had seen from Fleetwood in the past, the tougher the golf course, the higher up the leaderboard he could be, because he seemed to grind out the conditions, avoid bogeys and just shoot around 70 every day. But now especially from what I have seen from him last week, the CJ cup a couple of weeks ago, and even as far back as the Open, Tommy is beginning to shoot low numbers and compete with the very best, come on Tommy. 

Kurt Kitayama  – 35/1 (1pt ew) 

This one is simple for me. Kitayama, hits the ball as long as anyone, straight as anyone, and is a fantastic putter when he wants to be, especially on Bermuda grass. I also like the fact although he is normally playing on the PGA tour in recent times, he has experience around this Earth course in the past and put that together with recent form and you may find an absolute steal here at 35/1.  

Ewen Ferguson – 110/1 (0.5 ew)

Moving away from the course form or recent form I like Ferguson this week to land us something at a price I don’t believe he deserves to be. The scot is making his debut here but that’s not to say players on their debut haven’t performed well here. Ewen has won on tour twice this season, once being in the desert at the Qatar Masters not dissimilar to this week and he can can seriously dial it into pins when he is on form. His stats Tee to green are phenomenal this season, one of the best and as I said at the start of this preview, this really is the type of player I am looking for, this could just be the bet of the week!

RSM CLASSIC – Betting Preview & Tips

fantasy golf

Can Finau ever be called T2 Tony ever again…

Last week was a bit of a kick in the teeth for me; having Tony Finau on the wrong week is really annoying. In hindsight, I should have waited an extra week for him to get his eye in, and that is what makes the week just gone even worse. Not to mention this contest was basically over on Friday, big tone has become an animal, and I don’t think he will ever be called the bridesmaid ever again. As I mentioned last Tuesday, the numbers should have been around -15 for a winning score; Finau was -13 after two rounds; there is just nothing anyone could do to compete with that. 

On a positive note, I saw some excellent signs again with some of the golfers mentioned in last week’s preview, which gives me much more enthusiasm and promise for this week and into next year. Jason Day’s numbers continue to rise, Montgomery still looks like being the rookie of the year, and my each way play on Thompson was not far away; I will keep the theme of sticking to the models and keeping it simple moving into this week, especially with it being the last main PGA event of the year. 

Over to Sea Island, let’s attack this.

I was going to start this week saying it’s a tough week to pick out some value, mainly because of how good Tony Finau is; however, as we speak, he has withdrawn through injury, and we really can attack this week and find someone who suits everything about this place.

An excellent way to start my preview regarding the location is to mention that this course is on the doorstep of many players in the field this week. The likes of Bird, English, Griffin, Harman, Nesmith, Higgo, Johnson, Kuchar, Mitchell, Mullinax, Sigg, and Davis Love III, all live in and around this course; this, I feel is important as it is comfortable for these players and with exemptions and lots of FedEx points on offer it’s a tournament that would have been lined up for a while to gain a significant advantage before the big hitters return early next year.

The RSM Classic is played over two courses, with the plantation course next door being played once across one of the first two days. It’s worth pointing out that although both courses represent a similar test, or for that matter another birdie fest, the Plantation course is a par 72 (extra 2 shots to par) and therefore, with two extra par 5’s, I expect it will be much easier to score on.

The seaside course, where we should put our main focus because all players will have 3 rounds on there, is redesigned by Tom Fazio and is a coastal links type of course. It will be cold and wet on two days, and no doubt hold a stiff breeze at times across the weekend.

Both courses are around 7,000 yards which are short, so I don’t think that will impact players much in terms of length. Like we had two weeks ago, I expect most players here will have wedges into greens.

Bermudagrass putting surfaces here are the main focus. The greens are pretty challenging, as any putt within 10 feet is testing and difficult to read. The key to the RSM Classic is pounding greens in regulation and strong Bermudagrass putting, and therefore I believe proximity to the hole and avoiding bogeys are key here.

RSM Classic Winners: 2021: Talor Gooch (-22); 2020: Robert Streb (-19), 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19); 2018: Charles Howell III (-19); 2017: Austin Cook (-21); 2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17); 2015: Kevin Kisner (-22); 2014: Robert Streb (-14); 2013: Chris Kirk (-14); 2012: Tommy Gainey (-16); 2011: Ben Crane (-16); 2010: Heath Slocum (-14).

Simple models this week

My model this week is going to be simple. I don’t expect the winner to be outside the top 10 in putting. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are not to every player’s liking, and conversion of putts from anything outside of 10 feet is tough, so I expect this week’s model to be able to narrow down not only the best putters but also the right putting strokes. The greens are not that small, and once again, as we had two weeks ago, fairways and greens in regulation are just going to put you in all the right places here, and it’s as simple as that for me this week. 

I expect the winning score this week to be nearer -25 than -15, so birdie or better percentages is a fundamental key component here; I don’t want to be tipping up anyone who can’t reach a low score. I also don’t want to be tipping up anyone who doesn’t like a stiff breeze or wants to fight with this Sea Island course; we got to find some players with some experience and who are comfortable in this change of environment. 

So to emphasise what I am looking for here, I want the best players who are just great at dialling it into greens with wedges in hand, very good at putting compared to the rest of the field and have had this event pencilled in the calendar for a while to take advantage of the fall season. 

• Event Experience

• Last Few Tournament’s form

• SG Approach

• SG Tee to Green

• Bermuda Positive

• SG Putting

• Proximity to hole

• Birdie or Better %

Here is how that model looks for Top 25, along with their average betting odds; 

1. Brian Harman 25/1

2. Tom Hoge 30/1

3. Webb Simpson 40/1

4. Brendon Todd 50/1

5. Andrew Putnam 55/1

6. Brian Gay 250/1

7. Joel Dahmen 33/1

8. Seamus Power 22/1

9. Jason Day 30/1

10. Patrick Rodgers 45/1

11. Denny McCarthy 33/1

12. Tony Finau 10/1

13. David Lingmerth 175/1

14. Troy Merritt 66/1

15. Luke List 80/1

16. Kevin Kisner 50/1

17. Matt Kuchar 45/1

18. Sam Ryder 110/1

19. Harris English 50/1

20. J.J Spaun 50/1

21. Kevin Streelman 160/1

22. Justin Rose 60/1

23. William Gordon 55/1

24. Vaughn Taylor 250/1

25. Mackenzie Hughes 40/1

Breaking it down and where my tips come from…

Many tipsters this week will have some big cross doubles to try and gain some value on Rory McIlroy, who, is almost guaranteed to come in the top 3 over in Dubai. My preview of which, by the way will be published tomorrow. But with Tony Finau now out, we can find a winner here at much bigger odds than expected.

For a change, I’m going to work backwards. I want to start with Akshay Bhatia; he came through Monday Qualifiers I noticed this morning for this tournament with a 52 at the course, and I really liked some of his game in the summer and at these shorter courses, someone to have a look at definitely at a huge price. Also, Brian Gay, another one at this course who has had some really low rounds and both these players coming in at 250/1, is appealing.

I think it’s essential to look at some players putting in the right numbers and having some excellent recent form. Players like Tyson Alexander, who last week had a top 3, Justin Lower, who has had some recent top 10’s and Austin Cook, who is definitely playing way better than anyone thought he would and amazingly has a win at this very event. These are all players at big odds. I expect to have big weeks.

Around the 100/1 mark, I also like players here that tend to play well in the fall season, mentions of names like Mullinax, Kizzire, and Buckley, all players that I tend to always associate with being good in lesser fields, another set of players worth focusing on.

As I’m putting much more emphasis on putting this week, I feel like I have to include one of two of the best putters in the field. These two are either Denny McCarthy or Brendon Todd. Both of which gain so many strokes on the green. I tend actually to prefer Todd this week, maybe that’s because I included Denny last week in my tips, but Todd, for me, has a much better approach game and when it counts, I see Todd making a lot less bogey’s than McCarthy might do.

Someone else that has massively improved with the putter I like is Mackenzie Hughes, he had a recent win on tour and less mistakes recently, I feel like it could be a week to capitalise on his odds in actually a lesser field than when he won a month or so ago.

Tom Hoge is another one this week; I can’t not mention; he is by far one of the best with a wedge in his hand, and if he can put 4 rounds together like he has done in the past, he is someone that could run away with this. My only reservation with Hoge this week will now be his price since Finau has dropped out; 20/1 may be a bit short for me.

Matthew Nesmith sticks out on all the models this week, someone I can see shooting like a -23, he’s done that before for sure, and his stats on approach into greens is so good you can’t ignore him. Another popping on all the models is Andrew Putnam, someone I don’t see getting as many birdies as Nesmith, mainly because his driving is off key, but a play on a top finish for him in a small field like this might be a great option for you.

Other notables in good form I like are; Will Gordon, playing the golf of his life, Matt Kuchar, who suits this course like a duck to water and Harris English, who with links to this course and location, is real pull at 50/1, all of which will be on the radar for me this week even if I don’t bet them.

There is one man that I bet in Houston that is getting another go on my tip sheet this week, and that is Davis Thompson. Thompson is really progressive as I said last week, he hits the ball so straight and accurate, and if it wasn’t for his around the green game in Houston, he would have made me a lot of money. I’m trusting Davis again, and I think we can cash in on him before these fields fill up with all the big names. Not to mention that his Dad is the commissioner for this tournament and he is bound to get a great draw for Day 1 and 2 here.

This week’s Tips 

Keith Mitchell – 28/1 (2pts Win)

Brendon Todd – 55/1 (1pt Win)

Davis Thompson – 90/1 (0.5ew) 6 places

Justin Lower – 100/1 (0.5ew) 6 places

Brian Gay – 16/1 (Top 10) 1pt

Ashkay Bhatia – 10/1 (Top 20) 1pt

Houston Open Betting Preview & Tips

Houston Open

Monkey off ball striking Russell’s back. 

Well, well, well… what a week Russell Henley had; he’s one of those players I have had on my dreaded DO NOT BACK list for a long time; there is something about him every time I look to him for some success; he doesn’t have it for me, maybe though that’ll change now. One thing I will say is that due to him not winning for 5 years, he drifted last week to a fantastic price and now demands more respect in the markets. Ironically something I will be touching upon in this week’s preview respect. 

Before I move on to this week, there are a few names I want to mention from last week that you really should be looking out for going into next year. Taylor Montgomery, the first, continues to be a force that is putting up incredible numbers, a win indeed on its way, I’m sure. Will Gordon and Ben Griffin, both great stories, had 40 birdies between them last week and will undoubtedly have significant rookie years ahead. Lastly, a quick mention of Tom Detry and Dean Burmester, both players we know from playing in Europe: their stats have been impressive the last few weeks, and I will undoubtedly not be ignoring them moving forward in PGA Tour fields.

fantasy golf

Feels like Christmas this week 

Well, this week is more exciting than it should be, mainly because we’ve had a month of no-shot data, and that is hell for anyone like me; this week, it’s back. The coverage is also better, mainly because we are in Houston, Texas, and we will get featured groups and everything in between. 

Memorial Park Golf Course is a course we’ve seen many times but has only held this event in the last few years. It’s a Par 70 and is much longer than we’ve seen in the past few weeks but don’t let that fool you. What you see in terms of yardage on paper or the scorecard for that matter, every year never seems to play as long as it says. This tells me tee positions have always been key here. So in terms of length, I would say this is a medium sized course, rather than what a lot of people are saying, it’s not long! 

Another factor of the course that I always look at is the number of holes to par. A vast five Par 3’s this week, varying from 115 to 214 yards, can play very tough and lead to bogies and doubles very sharply if you are not careful.

This means, for me this week, scrambling and your talent around the greens have to play a factor, something I have not seemed to add to my models for months. This also means we are not getting a birdie fest this week, a welcome change and I expect the winning score to be between -10 and -15. 

Previous winners at this event; I will only include the last two due to being a different venue in the past before that. Jason Kokrak (-10); 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13).

Uneven lies and undulating greens are the natural defence of this course. Bermuda greens and tough sloping run-offs where you will see lots of players chipping from tight lies, so again, getting yourself out of trouble here will be a significant factor. The field this week, not too dissimilar to last week, World No2 Scottie Sheffler returns and is at ridiculously low odds (5/1) along with his mate; second favourite Sam Burns (13/1). The weather is not showing to be a significant factor this week as you would expect in Texas; however, as always, some stronger winds could impact the field, especially as the greens and fairways will be hard and fast as the week progresses.

What I am looking out for this week….

What you will get used to every week with my previews, I always base my tips on what the winner will get done well and what he will not be doing (It’ll be my catchphrase soon). I see the winner this week, having strong Tee to Green data and someone who strikes his irons well, from much further out. Compared with previous weeks, where we saw many wedges into greens, this week, we are looking at much bigger irons and yardages into holes. I know it sounds simple but avoid bogeys, and you will go a long way to being on top of this leaderboard. Tight lies, tricky putts and long irons create much more chance of high scores, and I will be looking for players who are great at avoiding bogeys this week. 

Strokes gained data Off the Tee I’m not that concerned with, mainly because length comes back as a factor and you can get away with not being as accurate if you are long. I am not saying you haven’t got to put your ball in the fairway, but I am saying that the closer you are to the green here, the fewer mistakes you will make and the more inventive you can be with your shots. An average PGA tour player this week who is 140 yards out rather than 175 yards out will have so many more shots available to them in their repertoire.

Bermuda greens are back and it’s nice to have a much more familiar surface, and of course, some players struggle with this surface, so I will look for some stronger Bermuda players. However, I am looking at avoiding bad putters as a whole item this week rather than the surface itself being the factor for a bad putting display. So sorry, Doug Ghim Reaper, you won’t be tipped up by me. 

I want to keep it simple as I can, and a don’t want to be missing another 55/1 shot.

My model for this week these are the trends I am looking for; 

  • SG TEE TO GREEN
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Driving Length
  • SG Putting 
  • Approach + 175-200
  • Greens in Regulation
  • Scrambling
  • Some recent form

Here is how that model looks for Top 25 along with their average betting odds; 

  1. Andrew Putnam 66/1  
  2. Maverick McNealy 22/1
  3. Aaron Wise 16/1
  4. Taylor Montgomery 25/1
  5. Tony Finau 22/1
  6. Sam Burns 11/1
  7. Jason Day 30/1
  8. Taylor Pendrith 60/1
  9. Russell Henley               25/1
  10. Lee Hodges 80/1
  11. Denny McCarthy 33/1
  12. Matthew NeSmith 35/1
  13. Keith Mitchell             70/1
  14. Si Woo Kim             45/1
  15. Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
  16. Scottie Scheffler 6/1
  17. Emiliano Grillo 45/1
  18. Robby Shelton IV 90/1
  19. Joel Dahmen 35/1
  20. Seonghyeon Kim 150/1
  21. Brendan Steele 110/1
  22. Davis Thompson 100/1
  23. Martin Laird             125/1
  24. Chesson Hadley 125/1
  25. Patrick Rodgers 55/1

Breaking it down and my early thoughts…

I’ve got to be honest. Early on I have strong thoughts on a number of guys, so breaking down my final tips will be much more complicated than I first thought. Weirdly the guys I think are vital players, like Finau and Wise, were also two of the first mentioned last week in my preview. Whether that is a sign that maybe I had those thoughts on the wrong week or that all their data shows how well they are playing right now, that’s to decide as we go on through the week I think. 

I tend to want to ignore Big Tone Finau missing the cut last week, although his amount of bogeys does worry me. Sam Burns looks like a strong play, and that’s easy for me to say for the 12th-best player in the world, but he could show up here and have a similar effect to the way Henley did last week and run away with it. Taylor Montgomery, whom I began with as a player to watch, again shows up in all the right ways on all the models, another guy you will see many people put up in their content this week, and I tend to agree with those thoughts, especially while the putter is hot. Whilst we are on the subject of popular picks this week, one of those is going to be Jason Day. As I’m writing this on Tuesday morning, he comes in at 33/1, and he will only get shorter. He has good form here and hits long irons well, and I’ve read this week that he is hitting numbers he was shooting in 2017 when he was in the world’s top 5. It’s almost getting to the point where you have to back him purely down to FOMO (Fear of missing out).

Further down the list and players, I’ve had on my shortlist to back this week include great Irons players like Henley, Pendrith and Hughes, who will undoubtedly gain strokes purely down to their proximity to the hole stats. Still, I am worried about their lack of distance off the tee. 

There are also some great putters in the field here to consider that will suit these greens and just purely down to their strokes gained putting; McCarthy, Lower, Rodgers, and McNealy will all avoid bogeys just purely down to their putting, something to consider. 

I also liked some of what I saw last week of Davis Riley’s game; he seemed to put something together that looked like he was hitting some form again but maybe not something he can sustain over four rounds yet. Similar to players like Joel Dahmen and Si-woo Kim here, both players you would typically see me back on this type of course, but 4 rounds, nope not for me. They do gain lots of strokes off the tee and are always very direct, which prevents mistakes, maybe the first round leader market if you need some pointers in there. 

Supposedly if you’ve got this far down reading you read the start of this preview, I mentioned respect, and when I say respect, I mean some of these prices being offered and touted on two players, particularly this week. Two players; I can almost guarantee I will be back this week. 

Sepp Straka, the first I cannot ignore; he is 90/1 while I am writing this, yes 90/1, a player who has won on tour this year; at that price, it is disrespectful to me. Yes, we could get a little hangover from him, after not much golf has been played as we did with Finau last week, but at that price, he is someone you have to have something on before Thursday morning. 

Another one of those whom I believe is not getting the respect he deserves this week is Davis Thompson. Thompson, another 90/1 shot, which, if you did just a model on Tee to Green SG and Driving Distance and Accuracy, would be level on data with Scottie Sheffler; punch it in if you don’t believe me. I’m not saying he will win, because he probably won’t, but because of how long and straight he is, he has to be a selection this week. 

I hope if anything this week, this has given you a few pointers. I troll through hours of data to get these thoughts down so I am really happy to answer any questions or hear your thoughts, please feel free to message me on twitter at any time. 

This week’s Tips 

Montgomery/Day/McCarthy (Three Chances to Win) 3pts 

Arron Wise – 20/1 (2 pts win)

Sepp Straka – 80/1 (0.5pts ew) 8 Places

Davis Thompson – 9/1 (Top 10) 1pt

Dean Burmester – 8/1 (Top 10) 1pt

Sam Burns – 90/1 (Wire to Wire) 0.5pts

Nedbank Challenge Betting Preview

.The format of this event has changed many times since first brought to the world. It has evolved from a 30-man event in 2013, when it was first co-sanctioned, to now a big part of the calendar so people outside the bracket for the race to Dubai can jostle for position and find their way to the main event next week. 

It is now an excellent way for people to find some form going into next week, so expect surprises along the way. However, this event has not been seen for a few years because of covid, so defending champion here is the main man Tommy Fleetwood from 2019. What a delight to take us back and remember a world pre covid world ey! Also, a significant factor this week changes things slightly; this is a NO-CUT event. 

The venue is a massive 7,834-yard course in Sun City, South Africa’s number 1 holiday resort, and is aptly named Gary Player Country Club. The fairways are tight, and the greens, as I mentioned in my Houston Open Preview, are fast and hard and will test many players who struggle with the putter in hand. The difference here, though, to the PGA Tour this week is that the greens are bentgrass, and there are no tight lies around the greens like in Houston. Accuracy here is going to be more vital. 

Nedbank Challenge – What I’m looking for in a winner here…

As you can tell from my course preview above, the distance here is pivitol. You can say that being in altitude means it levels it out a bit, yes, it does, but looking at previous winners here, they’re all hitting it long off the tee, maybe, bar the exception of Alex Noren, who seemed to hit every green in regulation anyway. I also like, of course, accuracy, so this tells me I’m looking for strokes gained Off the Tee and some approach stats with my model for this challenge this week. I also have to factor in some scrambling and strong players who can get themselves out of trouble. There are plenty of trees here and lots of thick rough, so the course isn’t taking any prisoners if you are not in the right places. 

Form isn’t a big issue here; as mentioned above, you can spell a few surprises, and I’m happy to plunge on someone in the field who just fits this type of course rather than someone who is playing well. I take this mainly from the stats of previous winners coming into this tournament; no one was lighting it up before coming here. 

I do expect plenty of birdies here; however, the weather might cause a few problems as there are suggestions of some thunderstorms coming, but I take that, that maybe it’ll make the course softer and, therefore, easier rather than winds picking up and causing conditions as we might get in the UK. Birdies are also really getable in the four par 5’s, which look like great opportunities for the longer hitters; they are tasty. 

Previous winners at this event; 2019: Tommy Fleetwood, 14/1; 2018: Lee Westwood, 40/1; 2017: Branden Grace, 16/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2015: Marc Leishman, 66/1; 2014: Danny Willett, 25/1; 2013: Thomas Bjorn, 30/1.

My model for this, these are the trends I am looking for; 

  • SG Off the Tee
  • Proximity to the hole
  • Driving Distance
  • Par 5 Performance
  • Scrambling
  • Greens in Regulation
  • Putting

Here is how that model looks for Top 25 along with their average betting odds; 

  1. Thriston Lawrence 45/1
  2. Jordan L Smith 14/1
  3. Ryan Fox 16/1
  4. Antoine Rozner 28/1
  5. Eddie Pepperell 25/1
  6. Fabrizio Zanotti 50/1
  7. Edoardo Molinari 66/1
  8. Tommy Fleetwood 11/1
  9. Victor Perez 40/1
  10. Richie Ramsay 60/1
  11. Marcel Schneider 45/1
  12. Hurly Long 50/1
  13. Ewen Ferguson 70/1
  14. Mikko Korhonen N/A
  15. Matthew Southgate 90/1
  16. Thomas Detry 14/1
  17. Adrian Meronk 35/1
  18. Callum Shinkwin 50/1
  19. Paul Waring 66/1
  20. Richard Mansell 35/1
  21. Alexander Bjork N/A
  22. Justin Walters 125/1
  23. Lukas Nemecz N/A
  24. Connor Syme 55/1
  25. Oliver Bekker 55/1

Straight into the tips…..

Antoine Rozner – 28/1 (3pt Win) 

I feel like the french are producing some really great up and coming golfers, not that Antoine is new, he turned pro in 2017 but his stats are really turning a corner this year, racking up Top 20 finishes now at an incredible rate. I really fancy Rozner this week, his stats Off the Tee are really strong. He’s been in the top 10% for Driving Accuracy and Distance this year on many occasions and that gives me enough to really think he will suit this golf course and that is not even the strongest area of his game. He is gaining strokes with his approach into greens every single week and in with these softer conditions expected earlier in the week, he really can capitalise and get a good way ahead of the field. 

Thriston Lawrence – 45/1 (0.5pts ew)

There is a lot to say about Thriston Lawrence, his game is definitely on the up and I had tipped him earlier in the year at the European masters when he won for the second time in the space of a year, I like him again this week. 

His other win came last December at the Joburg Open where conditions will be very similar here, we know he can cope with the thinner air and tighter fairways and greens. 

One thing that really swayed it for me with this pick in relation to the course; was the times he has not done well, or missed the cut this season, he was still gaining strokes Off the Tee, which is going to be the key for me here and there is no cut for him to miss!

Hurly Long – 50/1 (0.5pts ew)

I’ve been lucky enough to watch Hurly Long up close and live at the Belfry this year at the Masters and I loved what I saw. Long hits the ball long and straight and I expect to see him on the PGA tour next year much more, crushing some fairways. 

He is really peaking with his game right now with two top 10’s in his last two visits, and I’m happy to trust Hurly can get us over the line. I have absolutely no worries about him putting the ball close to the pin and holing some putts, so if we continue to get this strong game off the tee then he could come very close here. Another strong factor is I believe he can reach all the Par 5’s in 2 and as I said in this preview, that is going to go a long way to bumping you up the leaderboard. 

fantasy golf

WTT Mayakoba Betting Picks & Tips – Tom Ford Golf Tips

Tom Ford I Golf Tips, opens his Waggle Duff account with a beauty of a preview as the PGA Tour heads to Mexico. Be sure to give him a follow on Twitter, which you can find here. He is big into Golf & Racing and will give Waggle Duff adhoc breakdowns of the upcoming tournaments. Welcome aboard Tom! Now let’s get into it….

Landing Jordan Smith…. Literally at last. 

Before we discuss the WTT Mayakoba betting preview. Jordan Smith, last week, cruised into victory and it was one purely tipped up on form, a win that, let’s be honest, was due after he had 13 out of 21 top 20 finishes in 2022, with two runner-ups. Around 20/1, in my eyes, was an absolute steal that I couldn’t ignore. He also looked scarily good once he got a few shots ahead, especially come Sunday; his accuracy off the tee was immaculate and something to look out for in the future. 

The Bermuda Championship, or the wind tunnel they were all in, was much more eventful, a two-horse race it looked like until Ben Griffin folded like a cheesy omelette. It seemed that nobody could deal with the wind off the tee, and there were some odd club selections down the back 9 for much of the field at the top. A late surge from Thomas Detry wasn’t enough to clear Seamus Power, who just limped over the line. 

I question here the amount of FedEx Cup points the PGA Tour has made available for a fall event that still doesn’t attract any big names. Not that Seamus Power will moan, but I wonder how much you can take from that event and whether it’ll affect the Fedex standings going into next year. 

We head to Mexico for the WTT Mayakoba Classic

This week we head to Mexico and back to Mayakoba for probably the last time on the PGA Tour. One of the factors that come to my head with this course and location this week is; we are still at a resort course, which is not dissimilar to what we saw last week in Bermuda. This means low scores, and being accurate is much more paramount than distance. The difference to last week is that this is more likely to be played in a vacuum than a wind tunnel; I expect to see a bunched Sunday full of top ball strikers. 

There is a bigger $7.2 million purse this week, so we see a field attracting 10 of the top 40 in the world, which will impact my picks, my thoughts and your lineups if you are looking at something like a Draftkings lineup. It’s a par 71, so we are missing a big Par 5, and the course is relatively short and does play as one of the easiest courses on tour. I want to be able to tell you here that we are going to find an absolutely big odds steal this week, bang for your buck kind of week. However, we are seeing the average odds of the tournament winner come down and down every week, no matter the strength of the field. We will find some great value this week with some strange betting lines to be taken advantage of. 

WTT Mayakoba Betting

Key trends for this week… 

When I start my analysis and trends every week, I always look for what the winner will do well and what he will not get wrong. This week apart from what I have already mentioned about distance not being a factor, for me, this week it’s going to be a ball strikers paradise. The conditions will be soft, we will get more rain on Thursday, and I fully expect the winner to be firing darts and being in the top 5 for Strokes Gained Approach. 

Also, part of my model is going to be driving accuracy; obviously, to be high up on the approach stats this week, you have got to put the ball in the fairway, and the winner here every year is always putting the ball in the right place, no one winning this tournament is going to be bad off the tee. 

As always, we much touch upon the greens and the putting. Paspalum greens are pretty rare on the PGA tour, so finding trends and players that putt well on this surface can be challenging. But I am happy to look back at previous tournaments here and the likes of other resort courses in Mexico and places like TPC Kuala Lumpa that have hosted tournaments with some of these players in the field to find some positives for vital putting stats on Paspalum surfaces. 

So to summarise to assemble my model for this week these are the trends I am looking for; 
  • SG OFF THE TEE
  • SG APPROACH
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Soft Positive
  • Resort positive
  • SG Putting 
  • Paspalum Positive
  • Some recent form last ¾ weeks

Here is how that model looks for Top 25 along with their average betting odds; there certainly is a Waggle Duff fantasy League team within here. As many players reach over 50/1!

  1. Viktor Hovland 10/1
  2. Tom Hoge 28/1
  3. Andrew Putnam 66/1
  4. Billy Horschel 18/1
  5. Emiliano Grillo 35/1
  6. Brendon Todd 45/1
  7. KyoungHoon Lee 45/1
  8. Joel Dahmen 75/1
  9. Maverick McNealy 25/1
  10. Aaron Wise 18/1
  11. Hayden Buckley 75/1
  12. Tony Finau 16/1
  13. Taylor Montgomery 28/1
  14. Sam Ryder 200/1
  15. Kevin Streelman 90/1
  16. Jason Day 40/1
  17. Collin Morikawa 16/1
  18. Seonghyeon Kim 110/1
  19. Alexander Noren 55/1
  20. Brian Harman 45/1
  21. Mark Hubbard 90/1
  22. Ryan Armour 200/1
  23. Lee Hodges 75/1
  24. Harris English 60/1
  25. Scott Piercy 225/1

At the top

Let’s start at the top; I mean, why wouldn’t we right? So I’m not sure why Scottie Sheffler is ahead of Viktor Hovland here in the betting; I mean, yes, he is world number 2 now after Rory took the mantle two weeks ago; however, Hovland is on a three-timer here, and we know how much he loves these shorter courses and how well he normally plays in the fall season.

That being said, this week, yes, I prefer Viktor to Scottie. However, I am happy for both of them to be a fade of mine this week. Scottie’s putting is a problem currently; he can’t seem to find the cup, and Viktor is just not playing as strong as he was a year ago; I would like to see him in the top echelons of data for SG OFF THE TEE stats to even think about having a go on him at that price, just no value for me.

So with that being said, my thoughts this week come from the next set of guys, Morikawa, Big Tone Finau, Aaron Wise and Billy Ho; surely one of these guys has a great chance? Now I tipped up Billy Ho a few weeks back at the CJ Cup, and I did see some good signs from him but not enough to suggest he was pumped and raring to go like he was at Jacks’s place in the summer.

Morikawa, again for me trending in the right places and could really shoot something low this week but putting four rounds together right now, I don’t see happening. Wise and Finau are here for me, out of all the field at the top, the ones to really focus on. I expect one if not both, to be in my picks this week and will almost certainly be in plenty of others’ content in the next few days if you are looking about.

To see previous winners by the way at this tourney please have a look at @waggleduff preview and picks to see the full list.

Down the middle 

Now I want to talk about the middle of the market this week, mainly because I think this is where we are getting most of our value. There are ball strikers here like Hoge, Day, Todd, Detry, and Henley, who stand out to me. This group has a good mixture of finding fairways and greens consistently, which leaves me in a great place to lead, with one of these guys as my main pick. 

There are also some notable players that I have to mention here whom you can’t avoid looking at, mainly because this course suits them so much.

Emiliano Grillo, well, what can I say? Just look at his price, everything points towards him having a great week; he loves resort courses, loves short soft conditions, and his latest win coming on a resort course at the Fortinet Championship backs up his 4 out of 5 top 15 finishes here at Mayakoba in the past, worth noting. Brian Harman is another player who is perfect for these courses where finding the fairway is key and not being a bomber off the tee as important. Adam Long, great form here at Mayakoba in recent years, another you can’t ignore, and you’ll be getting a great price.

Looking at the model, the likes of Putnam, Montgomery, McNealy, Ryder, Streelman, and even SH Kim do pop off the list and I can see these players here going to shoot lows scores throughout this week. Niggling away though, there is just something about all of them that tells me they can’t get the job done across the four days and notably when it matters on a Sunday. However, I must mention these are the likes of players I would look at for First-Round Leads and DraftKings lineups if that is the markets you are looking in. 

My thoughts and plays

I want to hold out for another check on the weather this week due to some high winds, mainly at the beginning of the week and who could be on the wrong side of the draw. But this does not put me off Tony Finau or Arron Wise, to be honest with you. The latter of which, maybe not be strong enough with his putting like the former is recently, so I prefer big Tone for sure.

Tom Hoge ticks many boxes, his Irons could be hitting top form, and his driving accuracy is right up there. This week, most of the Par 4’s are around 420-450 relatively short yards, and Hoge will have wedges into many of these holes. In contrast, some of the other ball strikers in and around 30/1 will have more like a nine iron which can make a big difference between 10ft putts and 20ft putts, which as we know accumulates to more birdie chances.

I also really like some guys here that are coming under the radar a bit; KH Lee at 45/1 looks excellent value. Likewise, Brendon Todd, same price, and both these players are so accurate off the tee. I’ve had some looks at some higher prices; Matt Kuchar stands out as someone who could get a top 10 here, same with Sam Ryder, whom I mentioned earlier, who is at a massive 200/1 in most places. Jason Day at 40/1 could be a little too short for me here; I’d like the number to be around 60/1 to be comfortable to back him, however, plays on him along with Andrew Putnam for first-round leader are both something I am comfortable with doing. 

Picks and Tips

  • Tom Hoge 35/1 (3pt win) Bet365
  • Tony Finau 22/1 (1.5pt win) bet365
  • KH Lee 45/1 8 places (0.5pts ew)
  • Adam Long 75/1 8 places (0.5pts ew)
  • Emiliano Grillo Top 5 9/1 (1pt)
  • Matt Kuchar Top 10 7/1 (1pt)

WTT at MAYAKOBA PREVIEW, PICKS AND MY MODEL

Betting Tips

MAYAKOBA GOLF PREVIEW

Before we head into this Mayakoba golf preview, last week was a definite minus week. No luck on the DP World Tour but a short place with Patrick Rodgers ensured it wasn’t a whitewash! JUSTIN LAWER & SCOTT BROWN at 250/1 was in position heading into the weekend at Bermuda and I was excited about how the weekend would unfold. 

However, you couldn’t watch much of the coverage in the UK anyway but BROWN carded a +10 on day 3 and fell right out of contention. Wallop.

Therefore, we dust ourselves down, get back to the grind and start to find some form for this week. A week where we find many of the top players heading to Mexico for the WTT at Mayakoba Classic or whatever it’s called now.

Irony ahoy, on a week where LIV Golf celebrated an exciting climax to their inaugural season, the PGA Tour heads south to a Greg Norman course which is touted to transfer into the hands of LIV in 2023. 

For us mere mortals, this is an opportunity to enjoy a plethora of talent across this week’s event. I suspect this week and next week in Houston may be the last time for the year. If you wanted to play free Waggle Duff Fantasy Golf and join in the fun! Click here.

The top of the leaderboard is headed by;

TOP OF THE FIELD

Scottie Scheffler 8/1

Viktor Hovland 9/1

Tony Finau 16/1

Aaron Wise 18/1

Billy Horschel 18/1

Collin Morikawa 18/1

A strong top-of-the-field at an event that VIKTOR HOVLAND clearly loves. He is the two-time defending champion. I like how he is off the tee, he putts well on the paspalum greens, compared to other greens. Finally, the chipping which is a concern is softened on this course and is not as important.

PREVIOUS MAYAKOBA WINNERS

2021Viktor Hovland (2)261−234 strokesCarlos Ortiz
2020Viktor Hovland264−201 strokeAaron Wise
2019Brendon Todd264−201 stroke Adam Long
2018Matt Kuchar262−221 strokeDanny Lee
2017Patton Kizzire265−191 strokeRickie Fowler
2016Pat Perez263−212 strokesGary Woodland
2015Graeme McDowell266−18PlayoffJason Bohn
2014Charley Hoffman267−171 strokeShawn Stefani
2013Harris English263−214 strokesBrian Stuard
2012John Huh271−13PlayoffRobert Allenby

EL CHAMALEON – WTT at MAYAKOBA COURSE

El Chamaleon once more hosts this version of the Mayakoba Classic, an event that has had several names & sponsors over the years. 

The pictures on google make you believe that the course is coastal. It’s not that coastal. A Lot of the course sends you through a tropical, jungle environment as you snake through the property.

This makes El Chamaleon a very narrow course and subsequently a thinkers course. It’s all about hitting the fairway and getting into position off the tee. There are man-made lagoons and limestone canals that weave through the property, coming into play in all but 3 of the holes.

The greens are Paspalm which runs slow. Some of the players that putt well on this type of green include LONG, GRILLO (home player) and FINAU. The slow greens are also quite flat, which will allow players to get up and down from spots that could be considered short-sided on another course.

The key stat compared to other PGA Tour events is Driving Accuracy. This week El Camaleon golf course ranks 5th in importance off the tee but ranks between 32nd and 47th in any other statistic. 

This means, with the narrow fairways, and the harsh penalties for errant tee shots, we need to find players that are machine-like from the tee and can get into position. I am not as concerned with putting this week but will run the model with it weighted to see any findings. I will explain why I believe putting is equalised across the field a little more this week vs other PGA Tour events.

MAYAKOBA GOLF PREVIEW – THE WINNING FORMULA

When thinking about courses like this, I immediately just go to BRIAN HARMAN before I even look at rickrungood.com.

Fortunately, my gut isn’t too far away with HARMAN. You will see he ranks 12 in my model and the lefty is good off the tee albeit not long. He has some solid form with finishes of 23rd, 15th, 21st, 35th and 3rd at the FedEx St Jude. 

As I build my model, I have weighted towards off the tee; 18% driving accuracy and 10% SG OTT.

I also weighted towards SG at Chamlaeon historically at 8%. This is because this is a unique challenge, and one which certain players will come here looking forward to. HOVLAND has won here twice, HORSCHEL has 2 top 10s in the last 4 years and ex-champion TODD has followed up his win with an 8th and 11th place in recent years.

My Model – Based on the last 32 rounds

  • SG OTT – 10%
  • SG APR -10%
  • SG ARG – 5%
  • SG T2G -105
  • SG P 8%
  • SG OTT LAST 12 RDS – 5%
  • DRIVING ACCURACY- 18%
  • APR 75-100YDS – 5%
  • APR 100-125 YDS – 10%
  • PUTTING INSIDE 10’ – 6%
  • SG EL CHAMALEON – 8%

Top 25 from the model

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Russell Henley
  4. Aaron Wise
  5. Billy Horschel
  6. Kevin Streelman
  7. Collin Morikawa
  8. Viktor Hovland
  9. Martin Laird
  10. Matt Kuchar
  11. Keith Mitchell
  12. Aaron Rai
  13. Tom Hoge
  14. Jason Day
  15. Hayden Buckley
  16. Emiliano Grillo
  17. Brian Harman
  18. Joel Dahmen
  19. David Lipsky
  20. Will Gordon
  21. Brendon Todd
  22. Henrik Norlander
  23. Francesco Molinari
  24. Sebastian Munoz
  25. Greyson Sigg

WEATHER

The weather for Thursday and Friday looks wet with light showers. This won’t change my line too much when it comes to my picks. If anything the added element of light showers throughout both the first two days plays into that controlled ball striker that we are looking for. One that plots and paves his way around the course. 

We may have some thunder and lightning on Thursday, but it’s Monday night as I write this and things could well change. 

MAYAKONA GOLF PREVIEW – PICKS

TONY FINAU – 18/1 – BOYLE SPORTS

This week I wanted to lean towards someone at the top of the leaderboard. HOVLAND, FINAU, SCHEFFLER & MORIKAWA piqued my interest with MORIKAWA being someone I can see the market ignoring due to a disappointing 2022. A track like this does however suit his game because it’s all about position and pinpoint accuracy, something he has in abundance. 

However, I have gone with in-form FINAU at 18/1 to win. Finau ranked 2nd in my model, boasting more strokes gained in totality vs #1 SCHEFFLER. This year FINAU has won twice, which is a big deal. Many jokes have been slung at FINAU up until the Northern Trust in 2021 about whether he would actually win again! 

This year he has followed up with victories at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage, which were back-to-back. FINAU is an elite player, so it’s no surprise to see him picking up on average 1.73 shots on the field when it comes to T2G strokes gained. 

It could be said to put SCHEFF, TONY, COLLIN & HOVLAND in a hat and draw one out but TONY is 18/1 and SHEFF is at 9/1 on many bookies. Double the value and arguably better form from FINAU in the 2nd half of the year. 

RUSSELL HENLEY – 40/1 – EW 10 – BOYLE SPORTS

I could build a model for the Japan Ladies Tour and I am sure HENLEY would trend well in my model. He pops up most weeks without failure. There are players like him and the absent MITO & ZALATORIS who just seem to lead models even when not in form. 

HENLEY is one that I am more confident in this week due to the fact he is the most accurate off the tee in the whole field, based on the previous 6 months of golf. I need to pray that the often “cold” putter warms up. However, there aren’t any easier places to find your stroke than at El Chamaleon. 

At 40/1 at 10 places feels like good value for a player who is the epitome of accuracy. When it comes to putting I will explain in my next pick why I still see the value.

BRIAN HARMAN – 28/1 – EW 12 – BOYLE SPORTS

A similar thought process has led me to the already mentioned BRIAN HARMAN. To be fair, HARMAN has a little more about him than HENLEY, however, I have selected 12 places over 10 for odds of 28/1. Potentially a little light. 

He was 2nd last time out in Bermuda and has 2 other top 10s in the last 6 weeks. It feels like it’s coming for BRIAN. This is a course I am sure he targets as an opportunity for him to compete. Merely for the fact, bombers have their drivers taken off them for many of the holes. Also, 3 of the Par 3s are around 150 yards, which neutralises their advantages on typically longer Par 3s. 

HARMAN again is a player that plots around the course and can machine his way from tee to fairway to green and ranked 17th in my model.

He is trending in the right direction with his very large putter. +0.27 in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. However, inside 10 feet he has been very poor. Although I will see the trend as positive. Heading into a week on flat greens, where the stroke beats the read. 

EMILLIANO GRILLO – 40/1 – EW 6 – BOYLE SPORTS

GRILLO this year is a little of the forgotten man, albeit is this an event he has many top 10 finishes. He is also a very good putter when it comes to Paspalum greens.

With the absence of CARLOS ORTIZ, it will be GRILLO who is fueled by the love of the fans as the Mexican plays in his home country.

He also comes in this week with much better form, following a 4th at the Sandersons and a 5th at the BMW. GRILLO will be full of confidence as he once more does battle at El CAMALEON, looking for his 2nd win on tour, this would make sense to be the event where that could happen for the first time since 2015.

Statistically, GRILLO ticks boxes and is gaining 0.5 of a shot on the field over the last 50 rounds. More recently this number is 0.35 but 1.1 in shots gained in total. He ranks in my model 16th and when given the option of GRILLO, BUCKLEY, DAY & HOGE places slightly higher. In Mexico, I will go with GRILLO.

For me, GRILLO is S**T or bust. Therefore I have taken 40s EW on 6 places because I can see him winning or falling away as he often does across the season. If there was an event he would hang around, perhaps in front of the home fans is where this will happen.

KEVIN STREELMAN – 70/1 – EW 12 – BOYLE SPORTS

I am expecting a lot of support for STREELMAN as you can find him around 100/1 on some bookies. 

He ranked 6th in my model, which is why he was the first player I backed on Boyle Sports. He stats very similarly to HARMAN, whereby he is solid Tee to Green, particularly good off the tee but lacks from 10 feet. Ranking 97th in the field over the last 24 rounds. 

If you are going to be consistent with your approach, this is one to put your money down and hope. I believe with the slower Paspalum greens, the players will be taking a longer, firmer stroke. Therefore the 10 foot put maybe 12-15feet on a normal week. 

Once more as the greens are flat this is one where this difference can be closed but as for most weeks for players. STREELMAN will need to find his stroke.

Finally, I love how good STREELMAN is from 75-100 & 100-125 yards, ranking 9th and 12th respectfully vs the field in recent weeks. From 9 irons through the wedges he is dialled in and I hope this will correlate into a strong Par 3 performance this week and the birdies we need to compete.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW, PICKS AND MY STATS

bermuda championship waggle duff
fantasy golf

Before we explore the Bermuda Championship. Last week we did ok, another place with Kitayama & Jazz over in Mallorca. The Kitayama one was a tough pill to swallow, as he looked in place from halfway through his Friday round. 

A number of times now Kitty has hung around though. I remember when he battled Rahm in Mexico he just stuck with the pace, despite looking loose in places. I’m not sure about you but I watch his swing and sometimes I worry about the big block. Although a solid week for him again and another place for us!

Certainly for the hard and fast courses, I will be back on Kitty. We ended the week +2.5u and move on to the Bermuda & Portugal Masters.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Firstly, this Bermuda Championship field sucks. A combination of unreasonable recent travel for the tour (West Coast, East Coast & Japan in 3 weeks) and players wanting a break as we enter the winter period means we have a reduced field. I guess the players need a break at some point and Rory McIlory has called for one this week.

I also saw a cracking tweet yesterday, whereby the bookies were offering odds “Without Denny McCarthy.”

The course, Porta Royal in Burmuda, is a smidge shorter than the usual, at 6828 yards, and is played on a particular type of grass… any guesses? 

Last time out we saw LUCAS HERBERT win as the seaside course was battered by the Atlantic wind. Lucas is a big hitter, and certainly, a route of betting this week could be bombers and putters.

As a European, there are a couple of subplots I am interested in tracking. ADRIAN MERONK, the reputable DP World Tour player makes his first PGA Tour start. Looking at his DP performances I am not sure this course suits him but it will be great to see how he goes.

Aaron Rai has been a little out of form but has been slowly building his PGA Tour credentials. Finally, we see JOHN DALY and TOMMY 2 Gloves teeing it up. It’s as exciting as it can get.

The Winning Formula

Disclaimer – my process and analysis is unique to me. I will go through my favoured stats and players based on my experiences watching and betting them. Any additional credit goes to LOST FORE WORDS Podcast & INSIDE GOLF podcast when they run episodes, also to rickrungood.com where I pay for stats to play with. This article is for entertainment, and should be taken as such!

BRANDON TODD & LUCAS HERBERT have won the Bermuda Championship which enters its 4th year. These are two very different styles. The key this week, and what I will be doing is betting late. Play was stopped last year as PATRICK REED was coming through the field due to the high winds. With 48 hours to go, it looks like PM starters on Thursday & definitely Friday will be battling rain. 

This course is very exposed, therefore, I will take my 5 picks below and make any late tweaks if required. My initial picks are based on my formula (stats I pick and form).

Stats Considered

What can be drawn from the data we have is that Driving Accuracy and Putting are the two leading stats, ranking 14th and 10th out of 44 courses correlated. This leads me straight to AARON RAI, who is picking up a shot on the field, based on his previous 24 rounds. As stated he isn’t in the best of form but with a weaker field, I am sure he sees this as an opportunity to compete toward the top of the leaderboard.

Another player who is picking up a shot in both fields when on a correlated course is SCOTT BROWN. Don’t be fooled, he has many holes in his game of late, and returns to action following a WD, T54, and a MC. 

However, looking at which courses get the best of his game, you will find Port Royal & Sea Island inside his top 5, in terms of strokes gained data. I am not convinced with BROWN simply because he’s not scoring and the 250/1 odds back that up. 

I will certainly be considering JUSTIN LOWER, with the same method. Justin ticks the boxes in terms of strokes gained OTT and with the putter. He also enters in far better form, a T20 at the Shriners, T45 in the Sandersons & T4 at the Fortinet Championship. LOWER also finished with a T20 in 2021at this tournament and has several good finishes at Seaside courses, including a T6 on the KFT at the Lecom Coast Classic last year.

Finally, when it comes to form, due to the weaker field, it’s important to note players with T30 and T40 finishes in recent weeks. This is the standard that you will find. 

WHO IS LEADING THE STATS I LIKE

Looking more holistically at good drivers of the ball (strokes gained off the tee is my focus this week), the leaders based on their previous 50 rounds are (all stats are taken and give credit to rickrungood.com – an unbelievable tool!)

  • Kevin Yu
  • Adrian Meronk
  • Trevor Cone
  • Will Gordon
  • Patrick Rodgers 

In terms of players that enter today with the best putting record (again over their previous 50 rounds).

  • Eric Cole
  • SH Kim
  • Dennis McCarthy (Favourite)
  • Scott Brown
  • Adrian Meronk

Looking further down the list of players that are gaining +0.4 or more on the field on the putting green, some of which are striking the ball well, (again over 50 rounds for continuity).

  • Mark Hubbard, +0.77 in approach
  • Chesson Hadley +0.45 in approach
  • Adam Long + 0.33 in approach
  • Robby Shelton +0.43 around the green, +0.54 T2G & 1.42 overall

Finally, form is a little more challenging to work through this week. Many players do have big gaps from taking a break and with big players missing the typical T10 or T20 trains we look for are few and far between. 

THOMAS DETRY has a T10 at the Sandersons and a T20 at the Fortinet. SH KIM has a T20 at the Sandersons, which was backed up a week later on the ZOZO with a T4. Finally, PATRICK ROGERS was 16th placed on his last time out at the ZOZO and finished 4th here last year.

Bermuda Championship Weather

It will be warm as expected but recent reports indicate rain incoming on both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Herbert did the damage with a 65 on Friday & Saturday when the course was at its easiest, after the wind had blown on Thursday. 

The wind appears to be at its peak at 17mph on Friday, this is certainly playable, but I will monitor the rain and possible storms tomorrow. 

Bermuda championship weather

Waggle Duff

Waggle Duff this week is on the DP World Tour, and you can pick a team of 5 and submit for free on the link here! Good luck if you wish to play.

fantasy golf

Picks – EW 6 on BOYLE SPORTS

PATRICK ROGERS 25/1

JUSTIN LOWER 28/1

ROBBY SHELTON 40/1

GARRICK HIGGO 50/1

SCOTT BROWN 250/1 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

CJ CUP GOLF BETTING PREVIEW 2022

cj cup betting preview
fantasy golf

Before heading into the CJ Cup betting preview, last week was a slight profit as CAMERON CHAMP placed at 100/1 EW. Following my wedding and honeymoon, it’s great to be back to some normality and golf writing. I have also just finished with a client conducting some product reviews and I am available for any further golf content work. If you need any support with tournament previews, course or product reviews, or any golf content/ media project, please let me know.

If you play Waggle Duff free fantasy golf and enjoy this CJ Cup betting preview, you can now submit teams on Twitter or the link here. Let’s get into the preview.

The CJ Cup boasts a strong field as the PGA Tour flies home. The non-stop nature of The Tour has arrived in Vegas, Japan and now South Carolina for a historically played tournament of Korea. I am sure some of the players may have a thing or two to say about the schedule.

THE COURSE – CONGAREE GC

The course this week is Congaree GC, situated amongst 2000 acres of pine forest that has been embedded into its environment by Tom Fazio. 7,655 yards await the players and I believe you will find punters typically favouring the bombers.

However, the conditions of the track are usually firm and fast, like we saw when Garrick Higgo won here last summer when the Palmetto Championship was played on this course. 

Higgo won with -11 last summer. I suspect with slightly softer conditions and an exceptionally stronger field. We will find that the winning score is in excess of -15. 

The length of the course is certainly still a factor, that and the tight lies and run-offs you will find around the green. Inventive players like JORDAN SPIETH and TYRRELL HATTON have caught my eye when researching the player pool for this very reason. 

Players that do struggle around the greens, particularly striking such tight chip shots will struggle. Perhaps SCHEFFLER can return to the party, I recall his chipping around Augusta being immense, his little hat popping up from those large swales as the ball checks up to the pin. A similar challenge faces the players this week.

6 of the top 10 arrive in town for a field size of 78, there is no cut like the ZOZO last week. It is a mouthwatering field, Rory looks more like Rory every time I watch him, Thomas is due and typically wins this time of year, Scheffler is world number 1 and Rahm has just come off a win in Spain. As an Englishman, when I see the east coast and a field like this, I think, what a lovely Sunday evening I have to come.

cj cup betting preview
play waggle duff by clicking here

CJ CUP BETTING PREVIEW – PICKS THIS WEEK

SPIETH CHIPS AND PUTTS TO VICTORY

Looking into the course and some of the lies the players will face around the course, I like Jordan Speith, and he is my first pick in this CJ Cup betting preview. At 25/1, I think we find good value on the nose. My worry this week, is simply a winner will come from all those below 25/1. Simply put, even players like WEBB SIMPSON, CHRIS KIRK and last week’s winner KEEGAN BRADLEY who can all win, are playing the elites this week. 

SPIETH looked superb at the Presidents Cup and despite being a different format, showed that the fighting spirit is very much there. He also is a player in that 25/1 – 40/1 range that can go toe to toe with the rest of the field.

JUSTIN THOMAS WINS AGAIN IN THE OFF-SEASON

Another potential headline is JUSTIN THOMAS 12/1 getting yet another win during the off-season, 9 of his 15 PGA Tour wins have come between September – February, and JT has been playing well of late. 2 of those wins do include the CJ CUP, when the competition was played at Nine Bridges in Korea.

I like this course and this moment for JT. My golfing gut says he will go well and the winner will come from the top of the pack. Our job is to simply shuffle them. What I don’t like as I write this CJ Cup betting preview, is the price at 12s. It’s again, on the nose.

TYRRELL KEEPS HIS COOL TO FINALLY CLOSE

Last year TYRRELL HATTON 40/1 ripped it around Congatree and will be confident that this course will suit his game. We know from his win at the flagship DP World Tour event, the PGA BMW at Wentworth that this treelined style of course suits his eye.

The usually reliable putter of HATTON’S left him that weekend, but he is putting well of late, gaining 0.7 shots in the last 50 rounds on the field. He also is another player that I believe has the attitude to compete with the very best. If you find HATTON in the mix come Sunday you know he will relish the chance to do battle, whoever it is. 

Back this side of the pond, Tyrrell once more impressed on the links courses while playing the Alfred Dunhill Links Pro-Am on the DP World Tour. I did laugh as his father was caught swearing at a wayward drive (I wonder where he got that from). The course correlation is minimal in this example, but again those firm tight lies around the green will test the players and I like HATTON in this spot.

TRUST YOUR CJ CUP MODEL…. RIGHT?

As I built my model, certain players kept popping up. That was SCOTT STALLING 66/1 & KURT KITAYAMA 80/1 10 places EW.

Anyone who has followed my work for some time knows I love KITTY and we go way back. I have backed KITAYAMA since his European Tour days. He is a sneaky long player whose short game trended deliciously this summer. Something he will need to rely on this week as I suspect difficult pitches and chips will find all the players.

In his last 16 rounds, spread over some time, KITAYAMA has gained 1.8 shots T2G and 1.09 ATG. If we can find his putter, he has a chance to keep up with the pace. I would consider him for the T20 market or an EW at 10/1

A final pick is SCOTT STALLINGS, I have been surprised when I do play with rickrungood or look on the PGA Tour website, to find STALLINGS continuing to pop up on the models. But then I remembered, he has been playing very well! 2nd place at THE BMW and 3 top 10s in 3 weeks during July shows that STALLINGS finished 2022 in fantastic form.

Finally, my 0.5u on Fowler will continue until the job is complete.

I hope you enjoy the golf this week, it should be a proper cracker. If you haven’t submitted your Waggle Duff team, you can by tweeting @WaggleDuff or by filling out the form on this link.

Good luck with your plays.

Matt Tizzard

Founder: WaggleDuff.com 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.

Matt Tizzard Golf

THE 150TH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW AND TIPS 2022 by @NelsonsGolfTips

We finally have the 150th Open Championship after it was cancelled due to covid in 2020, there couldn’t be a better venue than this the home of golf. 

St Andrews has been the home of golf since 1552  and it’s the oldest golf course in the world, this course is steeped in history and enthralling finishes leaving us on the edge of our seats.

Last weeks Scottish open was a good prep for the Championship, Zander Schauffele prevailed after a hard fought contest, there are a handful of players who have caught the eye.

The market is headed by Mcllroy 9/1 after some good recent form and his win in the Canadian Open, next in line is Rahm at 11/1 and hot on his collar is the world number 1 Scheffler at 12/1 with both USPGA Champion Thomas 14/1 and newly crowned US Open champ  Fitzpatrick 16/1.

Next up is former Open champions Spieth and Morikawa at 18/1 and 20/1 respectively, with the new LIV recruits close behind Johnson and Koepka, lets not forget about Tiger , the Open wouldn’t be the same without him and at 50/1 there might be some value in that.

COURSE 

 The 150th Open Championship is hosted  at the home of golf, Old Course at St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.

Established in 1552 the home of golf was born, and what a beautiful thing it has become, just seeing the professionals walking up the 18th, with the grandstands showing their respect has my hairs on the back of my neck standing.

In 1552 the Archbishop John Hamilton gave the towns people of St Andrews the right to play on the links and in 1754, 22 noblemen, professionals and Landowners founded the society of St Andrews Golfers, this society would then become the precursor to the R&A. 

St Andrews links had a scare when they went bankrupt in 1797. The towns council of st andrews decided to allow rabbit farming on the golf course-to challenge golf for popularity. Twenty years of legal battle between the golfers and rabbit farmers ended in 1821 when landowner and golfer James Cheape brought the land and is credited for saving the links for golf.

The course was designed in the 1850s by Daw Anderson and Old Tom Morris (1863- 1908) and was responsible for the old course and how its set up today, the course has hosted this major 29 times since 1873.

PAST WINNERS

 2021 Morikawa 265

2020 cancelled

2019 Lowry 269

2018 Molinari 276

2017 Spieth 268

2016 Stenson 264

2015 Z Johnson 273

2014 Mcllroy 271

2103 Mickleson 281

2012 Els 273

2011 Clarke 275

ANGLES IN

Ive been looking at past Open Championship winners, but as usual there ain’t much to to on, last year Morikawa won at Royal St George and prior to that his form was T71-2nd- T14- T8-T7 so apart from the Scottish open he was in good form, Lowrys form coming into his win at Dunluce was T34- T28- T2-T8-T3.So again I would say it was very good form going into it.

 It seems like a running theme as Molinari was in excellent form winning the Pga Championship and Quicken loans before going on to win the Open ans two seconds, all winners going into the open had an excellent approach game stretching back 5-6 tournaments before the win.

You can look through the stats and nearly every player has recent very good form and one other thing players who played well at the  PGA Championship go on to play well at the Open, it  seems to be a good guide to the winners.

WEATHER FORECAST

The forecast for the opening day is  sunny with a 13mph winds, the Friday is a similar forecast with 14mph winds, Saturday is overcast with a 15mph winds and the final day the weather is overcast again with 15mph winds

PICKS

SCHEFFLER 12/1 4PTS EW – 11PLS BYL

How can we not put this man in after the season he has had so far.

Scottie won his first major earlier this year at the masters, prior to that he won three times, his maiden win came at the Phoenix Open, which was no surprise given the great golf he was playing.

The rookie of the year in 2020 has not just exploded on the scene he’s taken over, 2021 he made the team in the Ryder cup and didnt disappoint he got 2.5 points and defeated former world number one Rahm in the singles on Sunday.

In 2022 so far Scheffler has won three times which is rare on the PGA tour unless your an exceptional player and yes he is, he has only one missed cut to his name this year which was at the PGA Championship.

He went so close to winning the US Open in June, losing by one shot to our English boy Fitzpatrick, his stats this year are impressive his numbers are SGT2G 7TH- SGOTT 47TH – SGAPP 7TH – SGGIR 1ST – SGARG 21ST – SGPUTT 39TH.

This 26yr old from New Jersey is no stranger to Majors so far his record reads Masters won- PGA T4- US Open T2- T7-The Open Championship T8 , after T8th last year at Royal St Georges Scottie is primed for a big shot at his first claret jug.

SCHAUFFELE 25/1 -3PTS EW 11PLS BYL

The resurgence of Zander cant be overlooked, he’s had a barren few years but the tide is turning, up until this year he had only one PGA tour win to his name, now he has two and a win in the doubles at the Zurich along side Cantlay, he did win the gold Medal at the Olympics.

Zander is playing some excellent golf at the moment, he has nine top 20s to his name, he played well at both the PGA and the US Open with both of them top 20, there has been a couple of missed cuts along the way with one of them at Augusta, the other being at the players so both can be excused.

Schauffeles major record reads Masters T2-T3- US Open T3-5TH-T7-T14, PGA T10-T13TH, Open T2- T26-T20.

His recent stats are a plus they read, SGT2G 8TH- SGOTT 38TH- SGAPR 8TH – SGGIR T12 – SGARG 31ST – SGPUTT 31ST.

Zander is primed for a big challenge of the claret jug, he tuned up himself by winning the Pro AM in Ireland,  I can see him there at the end.

 ZALATORIS 25/1 – 3PTS EW – 11PLS BYL

Willy z is the major nearly man and will be there again fighting his way up the leader-board, he’s still not yet got that first elusive win but boy has he tried, he’s gone through major heartbreak twice this year, losing in a play off with JT and looked to be going into another play-off with Fitzpatrick on the 18th until he came up with this out of the world bunker shot to win his first US Open.

Willy has already got the hearts of the fans and even though he lost in both majors he still managed a smile, its only a matter of time before he gets his first win and first major.

Zalatoris has seven top 10s so far and a couple of MC along the way, not many players can boast that, all the year he’s gained on the field apart from the MC, and talking of gained stats his putting has showed up good so far, both Majors he gained 1.26 and 1.76 respectively, and In both Majors he gained 3.84 in the PGA and 4.02 in the US Open total.

Willys stats for the year are as SGT2G 2ND – SGOTT 11TH – SGAPR 1ST SGGIR 8TH – SGARG 69TH – SGPUTT T122 

There has been a big improvement in his putting and gained in both the Us Open where he was 4th in putting and 10th in putting at the  PGA Championship.

Zala withdrew at last years Open after getting injured, but this year he’s fully fit and raring to go, and lift the holy grail the claret jug.

C SMITH 25/1 3PTS EW – 11PLS BYL

How can we no play this man, he has major champion written all over him, cam has been on my major radar for some time, its only a matter of time before he hits the heights.

Camerons form over the past two years has elevated him into a solid top ten player in the world, this year so far he’s won twice, his first win came at the start of the year at the Sentry Tournament of champions where he gained 4.53 strokes on the field.

The other win came at the prestigious Players Championship, the putter was red hot then gaining 3.00 on the field, but recently its gone cold so were taking a slight chance on it becoming hot, we all know how good cams irons are, and his short game is better bar none.

Smiths last five Tournaments read MC- T48 -T13 -T13PGA – MC , and his stats so far this year SGT2G T24TH – SGOTT 141ST – SGAPP 2ND – SGGIR 55TH – SGARG 28TH – SGPUTT 14TH.

Cams Major record reads Masters T2ND -T3RD – T5TH -T10TH, US Open T4TH -T33, PGA T13TH, OPEN T10TH – T33RD.

Smith is probably going to fly under the radar due to his recent form coupled with his wayward driving, but don’t discount him, he’s not world number six for nothing, I think the links test will suit that amazing short game he has and scrambling will be a big factor at the old course.

FITZPATRICK 25/1 3PTS EW – 11PLS BYL

We couldn’t leave out our newly crowned major champion Matt Fitzpatrick, this Sheffield lad has been sensational all year and was still waiting for his first PGA win in the states.

This lad has worked so hard on his fitness and swing and the changes are there to see, Matt has missed three cuts this year but in between that he’s put some good numbers together.

Matt’s last five tournaments read, 1ST – T10 – MC – T5TH – T2ND – , there have been eight top 10s this year only beaten by Scheffler and Thomas who are in 1st and 5th in the world.

Fitz numbers this year read SGT2G 1ST – SGOTT 8TH – SGAPR 22ND – SGGIR T78TH – SGARG 3RD – SGPUTT 36TH.

His major form reads Master T7TH – T34TH , US Open 1ST – T12TH – T12TH , PGA T5TH – T23RD, Open T20TH – T12TH – T12TH 

Matt is trending towards another win, and I can see him winning two majors this year, he’s back in Britain  and will have the backing of the locals, you would be mad not to have him on your betting slip.

MATSUYAMA 28/1 2PTS EW – 11PLS BYL

Hideki is another one who’s shown some terrific form this year, he’s not missed a cut all year  and has had four top 10s, we also had a WD and a DQ at the Memorial due to his driver not conforming to standards.

He started the year with a win on his second start at the Sony Open beating Henley in a play-off, Hideki has eight PGA Tour wins and three DP Tour wins, he has no pressure of winning a Major after he won the masters in 2021, he can just play the shots with no pressure.

His stats for the year read SGT2G 10TH – SGOTT 65TH – SGAPP 3RD – SGGIR 6TH – SGARG 57TH – SGPUTT T126TH .

Matsuyamas major form reads, Masters 1ST – T13TH – T14TH, US Open T26TH – T17TH – T16TH – T2ND, PGA T16TH – T22ND – T5TH -T4TH -T23RD, Open T14TH – T18TH.

With the forecast for the weather to be sunny and calm this could turn out to be a wedge fest and who better to have on your side buy one of the best wedge players in the world.

There are other prices and places available by other bookmakers.

The Chevron Championship Preview & Tips

It doesn’t seem that long ago when Anna Nordqvist was winning the last major of 2021 with the Open Championship. Just 13 events have passed since the last major was held & they have all been dominated by Jin Young Ko who has won 5 of those events so rightly comes into the event world no1. This event is known to most as the ANA but was renamed under the new sponsorship this year & is now known as The Chevron championship. Mission Hills in California is hosting at its Dinah Shore Tournament course for the 40th time as a major championship. Who will be taking the leap into Poppies Pong on Sunday afternoon to Join the illustrious names that have won here before?

Course

Mission Hills in California is the destination this week with the Dinah Shore Tournament Course the venue. The Desmond Muirhead designed course is a par 72 measuring 6865 yards made up of four par 3s, ten par 4s & four par 5s. A long parkland course which can be very challenging if the wind gets up which luckily this week it’s not currently forecast to so winning score could be reaching -20 for the 1st time.  Dinah Shore is very much a second shot course, getting the ball in play off the tee will be vital to controlling the second shots to give players the best opportunity of making some low numbers. The rough, 68 bunkers, trees & water in play of four holes can create numerous issues for players if they aren’t accurate off the tee or on approaches. I’m very interested to see if the 18th hole is set up without the back stop sponsorship board of previous years, the longer hitters have been able to go for the green & not risk the water behind the green as they have the board to use as a back stop. Dottie Pepper holds the cumulative score record here at -19 set way back in 1999.

Previous Winners

2021 Patty Tavatankit -18 175-1

2020 Mirim Lee -15 600-1

2019 Jin Young Ko -10 9-1

2018 Pernilla Lindberg -15 225-1

2017 So-yeon Ryu -14 14-1

2016 Lydia Ko -12 5-1

2015 Brittany Lincicome -9 66-1

2014 Lexi Thompson -14 22-1

2013 Inbee Park -15 14-1

2012 Sun-Young Yoo -9 66-1

Narrowing down some trends in the winners

  • Each of the last 10 winners have played the event at least 3 times previously.
  • 9 had at least one top 5 in the calendar year
  • 7 hadn’t registered a top 10 here before
  • 24.7 is the average age of these winners with two of them being teenagers Lydia Ko & Lexi Thompson & only one was in their 30s with Pernilla Lindberg at 31.

Players who fit this trend this year are Leona Maguire, Celine Boutier, Georgia Hall, Hannah Green, Lin Xiyu, Gaby Lopez, Marina Alex, Brittany Altomare, Hsu Wei Ling, Angel Yin & Sakura Yokomine.

Golftipster5 Picks

Danielle Kang 20-1 Skybet 7 Places

Danielle comes into the 1st major of the year in some of the best form of her career, in five starts this season she has one victory, one second place & two more top 10s. She has played this event ten times with various results, three missed cuts but then also has three top 15s & her best finish here is 6th in 2019. Also, worth noting those three top 15s were in here last three stars here. She took a short break after the Asia swing in Phuket with Ariya Jutanugarn & last week would have been great prep to get rid of any post-holiday rust before this week’s major. The current CME globe leader is one of the best putters on the LPGA which she will need to keep hot this week to have any chance of winning. Her greens in regulation percentage of 76% shows that with the course being classed as a second shot course should theoretically put her in a great position to go well this time round. She’s statistically the 3rd best golfer this year going off stroke gained total behind Jin Young Ko & Lexi Thompson who haven’t played as much as Danielle.

Minjee Lee 25-1 Skybet 7 Places

The green in regulation machine will look to claim her 2nd major this week after getting the monkey off her back last year.  The Evian Champion has had a great start to the season with a 2nd first start out & two more top 25 finishes. She like Kang has played here numerous times but has had better overall performances than Kang with just one missed cut & in her other seven starts she’s hasn’t finished worse than 26th with a best finish of 3rd in 2017. She leads the field in strokes gained approach & tee to green so if she can improve her putting stats where she ranks 122nd she should have another cracking week & will certainly be challenging come Sunday afternoon.

Celine Boutier 28-1 Skybet 7 Places

I was slightly disappointed with the price of Celine but given her form I still can’t ignore her this week. She fits the trends of pervious winner perfectly; she’s had numerous top 10s already this year & hasn’t gone particularly well here before with a best finish of 44th In 5 starts. She will 100% win one if not multiple majors in her career & there is no reason why number one can’t be this week. She ranks 5th stokes gained total combining all the strokes gained categories, Strokes gained approach she is 7th, putting 11th & tee to green 18th. She won her 1st LPGA event in the states last year & is currently in excellent form with three top 5 finishes from 5 starts so she will be full of confidence this week.

Hannah Green 40-1 Skybet 7 Places

Hannah spent the off season back home in Australia playing a few mixed events with the guys & girls on the Australia tour with some success, she won the Ladies Vic Open & a mixed event in back-to-back weeks. Since returning to the LPGA she has had one top 10 a 27th & 59th last week. She is a player who fits the narrowing down the field trend but also has good form here & is in excellent form herself. She has appeared four times here before with two top 20s, one missed cut & a 62nd. The 62nd came in the September playing of the event not the usual April. This week could easily be the week she adds another major to her name.

Brittany Altomare 125-1 Skybet 7 Places

I’ve got to be honest narrowing down a long shot I normally find quite easy but this week I’ve really struggled to pinpoint a value long shot play. I looked at Pedersen, Castren & Popov but they didn’t really stick out enough for me to pick them, so I’ve gone for a slightly shorter but still a triple figure price of Brittany. She has made four appearances here with a best result of 16th on debut. She has since gone 44-20-MC. The 31-year-old didn’t have the best of Asia swings with two 51 placed finishes but came back to the states to finish 23rd last week. She has one top 10 this year from the Drive on championship where she finished 4th so another player who fits the trends & I’m happy to play with Sky’s 7 places

Other notables:

Stacey lewis 100-1 – cracking form as of late as well as a previous winner at this event but I’ve backed her numerous times slately with no returns.

Gabriella Ruffells 200-1 – playing on the futures tour currently but has two solid finishes here previously with a 15th & 19th

Odds correct as of 08:00 29/03/22  

Good luck with all best

@Golftipster5 – Ryan Hamilton