US OPEN 2022 Betting Preview by @NelsonsGolfTips

There is no Waggle Duff this week, as we continue to take a break. However, all systems go on US OPEN 2022 betting tips and previews!

So, after an enthralling finish to the Canadian open, in which Rory Mcllroy won by two shots, we now move onto the third major of the year, after Scheffler won the Masters and Justin Thomas won by beating my favourite, Will Zalatoris in a play- off. 

The golfing world is still digesting what happened last week when several top players jumped ship to LIV and decided that the PGA pay structure was not enough for them, it is going to interesting over the coming months regarding playing major competitions, Ryder cup and to see how many more turn to the money.

We now move on to the task at hand the 122nd US Open, as your aware it is at the historic venue Brookline where the USA won the Ryder Cup by one point after being 10-6 down. 

Heading the market for the US Open is world number one Scotty Scheffler at 12/1 and then you have the usual suspects just behind him at 14/1 Mcllroy, Rahm and Thomas, we then have Smith and Morikawa at 20/1, and then we have Schauffele-Cantlay at 22/1, we then have three players on 25/1, Johnson, Zalatoris and Speith.

The market seems pretty compacted around the 20-40 mark but there is definitely some value still to be had, last year’s masters champion is a nice 40/1 Matsuyama and 2021 champion Bryson is 50s.

Looking at the Majors so far this year the bookmakers will be vying very hard for your well-earned cash, I would go as far to say there will be 12 places out there on offer, but with that the market gets diluted so try and balance the place with the price.

COURSE

The 122nd US Open is hosted at The Country Club, Brookline, Massachusetts, the course is steeped in history, it was established in 1882 and then designed in 1895 by Willie Campbell and 1902 by Alex Campbell, the course is a par 71 and is 7643 yards long.

The greens are bent grass and the rough is fescue, there are two water hazards, the fairways have been made bigger when Gill Hanse and Jim Wager over saw the course in 2009 there was a lot of trees removed, the bunkers around the green run deep.

The greens are amongst the smallest in the country with steep contours and steep run offs. 

On each of the 9 holes there is one par 5, two par 3s and six par 4s, the signature hole on the course is claimed to be the par 3 – 7th hole, it plays 197yards, it’s the oldest hole on the property and the only remaining from the original six built-in 1893.

The raised green features a challenging double plateau and is guarded by bunkers left and right, it is a large contouring green.

Some other noticeable holes are the par 3- 2nd hole measuring at 190 yards, it actually measures 90 yards shorter than the women’s tee, this is not a misprint, it is actually a great idea where the Championship course can utilise an alternative tee box on the right side of this par four and thus creates a par three for the players.

The 2nd hole plays uphill to a green that is heavily bunkered on the left side, however if you do pull it left off the tee then you’re hoping to find the sand rather than finding the gnarly fescue rough surrounding the bunker, which would be hard to get up and down from.

One other hole to look out for is the par5-11th, it is 511yards off the tee, its reachable in two but is dependent on how your drive goes, it is played over a pond, and you must thread your drive between a rock mound on the right and a tree line on the left.

If you can carry the rock then you will have a fair chance to go to the green in two, but a creek can come into factor if your drive is too long it can also be a factor for the shorter hitters on the tour, so they must decide to go for it or lay-up.

The green sits on a hill that plays at least two clubs longer, the putting surface is surrounded by trees, thus creating an amphitheatre, the raised green is one of the finest views on the property.

History

There have been three US Opens played here, the first being in 1913 and was won by local lad Francis Ouimet who was a former caddie around here, the 20yr old won an 18-hole play-off.

 the next one in 1963 was won by Julius Boros, he defeated Arnold Palmer and Jacky Cupit in a play off, and the most recent one was in 1988 and was won by Curtis Strange in another play- off by beating Nick Faldo. 

The US Amateur Championships have been played here in 2013 and was won by our very own Sheffield boy Matt Fitzpatrick, Hes since gone on to win 7 professional wins but the big PGA tour has evaded him thus far. 

There have been several big names who played in the US Amateur Championship in 2013 and have gained some course knowledge, world number one was one of them Scheffler, along with Conners, Schauffele, Dechambeau, young, Hossler, Mcarthy, Gooch, Poston, Nesmith, Zalatoris.

And not forgetting the Battle of Brookline in 1999 where America triumphed in the 33rd Ryder Cup, the Europeans was 10-6 up heading into the final round but made a stellar come back to win by a point with Leonard holing a 45-footer on the 17th.

PAST WINNERS

2021 RAHM 278

2021 DECHAMBEAU 274

2020 CANCELLED

2019 WOODLAND 271

2018 KOEPKA 281

2017 KOEPKA 272

2016 JOHNSON 276

2015 SPIETH 275

2014 KAYMER 271

2013 ROSE 281

2012 SIMPSON 281

2011 McllROY 268

SUMMARY

Unfortunately, there are little stats to go on, due to no major competitions played here recently, some past comments from players who have played well here are interesting, Matt Fitzpatrick was quoted in saying my short game was the best of my life today but did say he struggled due to the nature of the length of the second shots in, so maybe we need some big hitters off the tee.

Oliver Goss, who was the other finalist, said you cannot take too many risks on this golf course, and that you must play for the fat parts of the fairways and the wide parts of the greens, and if you take any chance, you could hit the rough and end up looking at bogey or worse.

Conners who was a semi-finalist said there are some treacherous greens out there, and it is important to put yourself in good positions because you can be not that far from the pin but in nearly impossible places, you can look silly out there if you get on the wrong side of the hole, I hit some good chips out there today and made some good pars.

Looking at past winners there are a few pointers but nothing solid, most of the past winners have been in the top 30 of the previous majors in the year, Rahm won in 2021 and was T8th in the PGA prior to that, Dechambeau was T4th in the PGA prior to his win, woodland T8th in the PGA, Koepka T13th PGA, Johnson T4th in the masters prior to his win, Spieth won the Masters prior to his US Open win, Kaymer T31 at the masters, Rose T25 in the masters prior to his win. 

As you can see playing well in the majors prior to playing the US Open is defiantly a plus, the course seems to demand a straight driver of the ball coupled with a fine short game and exceptionally good with the flat stick, but I think recent form could be the defining answer.

WEATHER

We start off Thursday with the sun out, highs of 75 with little wind, then Friday is sunny with cloudy intervals, and maybe some showers, rain is forecast for sat and Sunday with winds around 11mph.

PICKS

ZANDER SCHAUFFELE 18/1 3PTS EW- 11PLS BYL

So, Zander is my headline pick for the US Open, this guy has struggled for a few years but has so much potential, the man from California is for me ready to fill a tiny bit of the potential in getting his first of many majors.

After winning his first PGA Tour Title in 2017 the Greenbrier, many thought he would go on to be one of the greats but 5yrs on Hes still looking for his first major, he has won some big titles, he won the Tour Championship in his breakthrough season 2017 and won the Olympic Title in 2021.

After being as high as 4th in the world Zander is at number 12, Hes established himself as a firm number in the world rankings for a solid 5yrs now. Make no bones about this Zander is playing some really good golf, if he gets the putter rolling early then it’s in the bag.

His results this year show as T18 Memorial – T13PGA – T5th – Byron – 1ST Zurich – MC Masters – T35th WGC –T12 Valspar

His stats of the year read SGOTT T39 – SGTTG 7TH – SGAPR 9TH – SGGIR 15TH –SGARG 29TH – SGPUTT T67 

SPIETH 20/1 3PTS EW 11PLS BYL

Jordan is my second pick, I have been a fan of him for years and found it hard to see his decline, but boy is he back on the top of the pile with the big boys, he is so enigmatic, and we all love him for his enthusiasm and running commentary.

There has been no hiding about Jordans swing problems, but his new swing looks awkward to say the least but is working effectively as he won the Heritage and has posted three top ten as well this year, it is great to see that positive energy.

Form this year is T18 mem – T7 Schwab – T34 PGA – 2nd BYRON – 1st Heritage – MC Masters 

Stats for this year SGTTG 10th– SGOTT 23rd –SGAPR 25th – SGGIR 62nd – SGARG T20 – SGPUTT 149th.

As you can see from the stats there are some good numbers there but for Jordan to win another Major, he must get that putter working the way it was for years, being one of the best putters on the Tour was his signature.

IM SUNG-JAE 33/1 – 2PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE

This 24-year-old has had it rough in recent months, he missed the PGA Championships due to Covid, Sung- Jae was rookie of the year in 2018 –2019 season, after leading the Web.com Tour in 2018.

Sung- Jae has two PGA Tour victories to his name and five victories since he turned professional, his most recent win was last year at the Shriners, Sung has played really good golf this year without winning,

He has no less than four top ten to his name, his last four starts have yielded some solid numbers, at the Memorial he ranked 12th OTT- 13th TTG – 42nd ARG, Schwab 7th OTT –2nd TTG- 3rd ARG, Heritage 1st OTT –4th TTG – 18th ARG, Masters 14th OTT- 20th TTG –21st ARG. These are not to be sniffed at.

His recent results are Memorial T10 – Schwab T15 –RBC T21 –Masters T8 – WGC T35.

His stats for the year read 9th SGTTG – 12th SGOTT – 63rd SGAPR – 7th SGGIR – 6th SGARG – 74th SGPUTT.

Sung- Jae best finishes for the majors are Masters T2-2020 T8 –2022, PGA T17, US Open 22nd –2020 –T35- 2021.

Can Im Sung -Jae become the Second South Korean to win a Major Championship.

PEREIRA 45/1 – 1PT EW 11PLS BYL

Mito has become one of the fans favourites this year, Hes become a regular face on the leader boards, I am hoping that he has overcome the heart ache of the PGA Championship where he was in front until the last hole where he drove his ball into the creek and bogeyed the last, missing a three way play off where Thomas prevailed.

Mito is one of many good Chileans on the Tour, he resides in Jupiter, Florida and along with Niemann, Munoz and Ortiz the house share whilst on the tour. 

Mito has won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021 and once in 2020, and has come close this year, he has two top ten, four top 20s and four top 30s.

His stats for the year are T20 SGOTT – 11th SGT2G – 7th SGAPR –6th SGGIR – 86th SGARG – 98th SGPUTT. 

Only the players and the Zurich are where Mito did not gain strokes on the field in recent competitions, the Players was a brutal test, and the Zurich was a team event so he can be forgiven for not gaining at both events, even after the disaster on the 18th at the PGA he still gained 3.58 on the field.

CONNERS 45/1 – 1 PT EW 11PLS BYL

This course should be ideal for his game, he shot 62 in the final round of the Canadian Open, setting himself up for the US Open, Corey like many others on the Tour are always giving a good show of themselves, and this year is no different, Hes up to his highest world ranking of 31st in the world.

Corey should be able to navigate around here with the solid iron play and his long game off the Tee, when you talk of good iron players Conners is always one of them in mind.

His results so far this year are Canadian 7th – Memorial T13 – PGA MC – Wells T21- Heritage –T12- Masters T6 – Texas T35 – WGC 3rd

His stats for the year show 8th SGOTT – 21st SGT2G – 37th SGAPR – 4th SGGIR – 123rd SGARG – 91st SGPUTT.

His best results in the majors are Masters T6 2021 T27 2022, PGA T17 2021- T9 2022, Open T15 2021.

POWER 80/1 0.5PTS EW 11PLS BYL

Seamus is my Irish hope, Shane was on my short list, but I Opted for value, that does not mean he will not have the same chance, make no bones about it, Hes got Major champion written all over him and future Ryder cup player who has potential in abundance.

Seamus turned pro in 2011 and has 6 professional wins to his name, he has risen to 41st in the world rankings, he won his first PGA Title last year and with the all-round game he has it should be many more.

He has played well in both Majors this year with him T9th at the PGA and T27th at the Masters, which for me puts him in good stead to have a good go at the US Open, Hes played some good comps this year he T17th at the Byron, T5th at the WGC, T3rd at the Sony, and T9th at the AT&T after surrendering a five-shot lead.

His numbers this year are 60th SGT2G  – 57th SG OTT – 98th SGAPR – 8th SGGIR – 85th SGARG – 29th SGPUTT 

Seamus gained in stats in total in both the Master and the PGA and has been consistently gaining on the field when Hes made the cut, Seamus is value at around the 100 marks for the tournament and cannot be sniffed at.

MCCARTHY 250/1 0.5PTS EW 11PLS BYL

Denny has made a good recovery this year, he slumped to 248 in the world last year and is now as high as 121st but that does not show how well he has played recently, especially his putting.

McCarthy has showed Hes playing steady this year Hes only missed one cut this year, Hes had two top ten, two top 20s, two top 30s and three top 50s.

His results this year are Memorial T5 – Schwab T27 – PGA T48 – Wells T25 –Heritage T56 – Texas T18. 

Stats for the year are 135 OTT -103 TTG- 137 SGAPR – 140 SGGIR – 32 SGARG – 5 SGPUTT.

The stats for the Memorial are much better he was 17th SGT2G – 66th SGOTT- 30th SGAPR – T55th SGGIR – 1ST SGARG- 7th SGPUTT

This US Open can be won by anyone and with Denny in good form especially around the greens and putting then Hes in a good place to have a good shot at it.

Women’s US Open Preview & Tips by @RH_G0LF

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

After all the ups & downs of the Match play last week its now onto the 2nd Major of the year with the Women’s US Open at Pine Needles Lodge & golf club. This week players will play for the biggest prize in women’s golf as well as their names in etched in history. A whopping £1,800,000 going to this year’s winner & a combined purse of $10 Million which is more than double what you would get for the PGA & Evian Championship.  

The oldest of the ladies’ majors looks set to be another great test of golf with the USGA keen to keep scoring to a single figure under par winner. The last 20 years have Only seen double digits winning 3 times. Will the Asian domination continue in this event? The last 15 winners has seen just 4 winners that aren’t national’s based in Asia

Last week’s Recap

Before previewing the US Women’s Open. Last week saw the Bank of Hope Matchplay play out in Las Vegas at Shadow creek which saw Ji Eun Hee winning the final against Ayaka Furue. That win got her into the field this week as she was set to miss out after her 10-year major status had now expired & she didn’t progress through qualifying earlier in the season. If she hadn’t of won last week, she would be at home watching on the tv but that’s golf for you.  

From a betting perspective, it wasn’t the best of weeks on the LPGA, I tried to pick out a player from each quatre of the draw in the small hope they would all meet in the Semi-finals, but nobody progressed from the group. All finishing 2nd or 3rd & Megan Khang managed to not progress even though she was unbeaten. Hopefully our fortunes will change like the last men’s major when I had 4 missed cuts the previous week before landing the Winner the following week.

Course

Name – Pine Needles Lodge & Golf Club

Location – Southern Pines, North Carolina, USA

Established – 1928

Designed by – Donald Ross & renovated in 2018 by Kyle Franz

Par – 71

Length – 6638

1. Par 3s – 4 Measuring between 131 & 204 with an average of 174

2. The Par 4s – 11 Measuring between 351 & 440 with an average of 400

3. Par 5s – 3 measuring between 502 & 524 with an average of 513

Greens – Bermuda

Fairways – Bermuda

Water – in play on 3 holes

Bunkers – 68

Events hosted

2019 US Senior Women’s Open – Helen Alfredsson +1

2007 US Open – Cristie Kerr -5

2001 US Open – Karrie Webb -16

1996 US Open – Anika Sorenstam -6

RH_G0lf Selections:

Lexi Thompson 13-1 6 Places Boylesports 2 PTS

Value Play 14-1 6 Places Paddypower 2 PTS

Lexi is the best hope America has of keeping the US open on home soil this week. The world no 6 is in some great form & looks set to peak this week for the win her form is deserving of. In just 6 starts this year she has a worst finish of 38th. In her other 5 starts she has finished 2nd twice, 4th, 6th & 13th.  Lexi leads the Strokes Gained total on tour which backs up her great form this season. She will be able to rely on her fantastic iron play this week with hitting the green in regulation vital to keeping errors off the scorecard, Lexi leads the tour for greens in regulation with 76.8%. The 27-year-old also leads the tour for most rounds under par (average) with 19. Over the last few years, she has made every cut in the events she has played not missing a cut since the 2020 US open 29 starts ago which just shows how constant she has become. I thought she would have been lower in the betting maybe even singe figures so at 14-1 I’m happy to double my staking plan with her.

Key Stats:

Tee to Green – 13th

Off the Tee – 3rd  

Approach the Green – 20th  

Around the Green 136th  

Putting – 4th  

Greens in Regulation – 1st (76.81

Scoring Average – 2nd (69.26)

Attaya Thitkul 28-1 6 Places Boylesports

It’s been a Stellar start to the LPGA for Attaya picking up her 1st win at the JTBC Classic & rounding that off with four top 10s in just eleven starts. Thitkul has shown she plays with absolutely no fear flag hunting each time she tees it up, she has the highest number of birdies this season with 172 & sits 3rd in most eagles with 6. The current rookie of the year leader is also 7th for scoring average with 69.67. This will be the 1st time she has playing in a US Open having already picked up a top 5 finish at the Evian Championship & at 28-1 I feel she like Lexi should have been a lot shorter this week

Key Stats:

Tee to Green – 7th

Off the Tee – 6th

Approach the Green – 17th

Around the Green 47th

Putting – 65th

Greens in Regulation – 23rd (72.79)

Scoring Average – 7th (69.67)

Mao Saigo 50-1 6 Places Boylesports

Mao Saigo 50-1 6 Places Boylesports

Mao will be looking to replicate fellow now Japanese National Yuka Saso by winning this week & earning LPGA status. Yuka had no playing privileges last year when she turned up to the US Open but won & now is one of the best players on the LPGA. Saigo will start this week with plenty of eyes on here especially given what Yuka did & how incredible her form on the JLPGA has been this year. She has won five yes Five times this year in just ten starts, to go with this there are also two 2nd places & another top 10. Incredible form & I honestly can’t believe she is 50-1 this week, first autobet of the week. Her form has seen her quickly rise to world no 18 & if she carries on, she will be up there with the likes of Jin Young Ko & Lydia Ko fighting for top spot.

Key Stats (Taken from JLPGA)

Fairway Accuracy 34th (70.47%)

Scrambling 1st   

Total Driving 5th

Ball Striking 4th  

Scoring Average 1st (70.133)

Maja Stark 50-1 6 Places Boylesports

Value play 66-1 6 Places Unibet

Maja was in contention in the last 2 US Opens when she was still an amateur finishing 13th & 16th in 2020 & 2021 respectively. Since turning pro in august 2021 she has already picked up  four Ladies European tour titles. The swede also has two 2nd , one 3rd  & four more top 10 finishes so there is clearly a bright future ahead for Maja. She is the current race to Costa del Sol leader & a good week here could almost tie the title up with half the year still to go.

Key Stats (Taken from LET)

Greens in Regulation – 77.85%

Driving Accuracy – 63.3%

Scrambling – 63.16%

Putting Average – 29.72

Scoring Average 69.12

Yuna Nishimura 150-1 6 Places Boylesports

Another player from the JLPGA but bookies have given her a much higher price than most JLPGA & KLPGA players. Her form shows she is 100% worth an each way shot this week. The world no 44 has had five top 10 finishes with two 2nd & one 3rd. Yuna was a three time winner last year & had a total of sixteen top 10 finishes & has only missed two cuts in two years. I’m very optimistic she can bring that form over to the states for this week’s US Open & at 150-1 she is the long shot for the week.

Key Stats (Taken from JLPGA)

Fairway Accuracy 12th (74.40%)

Scrambling 13th

Total Driving 47th

Ball Striking 36th  

Scoring Average 4th (70.77)

Other notables

Madelene Sagstrom – 40-1 – she’s in great form as of late with 4 straight top 10s. I will probably have a side bet on her, but she isn’t in my main plan. It was a very tight call between Attaya & Sagstrom.

Hae Ran Ryu -66-1 – Similar to Mao Saigo on the Korea tour. The 21-year-old has had five top 10s in her last six stroke pay starts which includes a win & two 3rd place finishes, one to keep an eye on.

All odds correct as of 09:00 31/5/22

Good Luck with all Bets

Ryan Hamilton

CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE 2022 BETTING PREVIEW & TIPS

CHARLES SCHWAB 2022 BETTING PREVIEW & TIPS by @NelsonsGolfTips

Receive the latest Golf Tips, Fantasy Golf updates & Golf Stats direct to your inbox. You will only receive tips and fantasy golf information from Waggle Duff and your data will not be shared.

Join 57 other subscribers

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

COLONIAL COUNTRY CLUB (Fort Worth)

We’re going back to Texas after an enthralling PGA Championship in which Justin Thomas prevailed after a play-off with Will Zalatoris. It was everything and more I expected at Southern Hills, it’s been there five times and I don’t think you will have to too long to see it there again.

Course

Colonial Country Club is a Par 70 measuring at 7209 yards.

The greens are Bentgrass.

The Charles Schwab has been hosted here since 2014, prior to that it was called the Crowne Plaza Invitational, the Dean & Deluca, the bank of America, Southern West Bell and the Fort Worth invitational. 

The tournament is associated with Ben Hogan (unofficially) and is commonly referred as Hogans Alley, he was a long-time resident at Fort Worth and won the tournament five times.

The signature holes of this course are holes 3,4 and 5, which are known as the Horrible Horseshoe, the holes are made up of two par 4s and a par 3-4th they are the toughest stretch of the course, year in year out.

CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE HISTORY

Looking back at the past ten winners there seems to be a mix of players who have a short game to die for, or players who have excelled as good ball strikers. 

2021 KOKRAK –14 SGAPP 8TH SGOTT 1ST SGT2G 2ND SGPUTT 7TH SGARG 61ST  

2020 BERGER –15 SGAPP 5TH SGOTT 31ST SGT2G 4TH SGPUTT 7TH

SGARG 27TH  

2019 NA –13 SGAPP 1ST SGOTT 18TH SGT2G 2ND SGPUTT 2ND

SGARG 57TH

2018 ROSE –20 SGAPP 1ST SGOTT 4TH SGT2G 1ST SGPUTT 26TH

SGARG 27TH

2017 KISNER –10 SGAPP 25TH SGOTT 46TH SGT2G 5TH SGPUTT 6TH

SGARG 3RD

2016 SPIETH –17 SGAPP 38TH SGOTT 6TH SGT2G 7TH SGPUTT 2ND

SGARG 10TH

2015 KIRK –12 SGAPP 31ST SGOTT 85TH SGT2G 34TH SGPUTT 3RD

SGARG 29TH

2014 SCOTT –9 SGAPP 3RD SGOTT 8TH SGT2G 9TH SGPUTT 26TH 

SGARG 61ST

2013 WEEKLEY –14 SGAPP 1ST SGOTT 22ND SGT2G 1ST SGPUTT 33RD SGARG 28TH

2012 Z JOHNSON –12 SGAPP 16TH SGOTT 23RD SGT2G 7TH SGPUTT 3RD SGARG 4TH

2011 TOMS –15 SGAPP 1ST SGOTT 15TH SGT2G 2ND SGPUTT 8TH SGARG 58TH

ANGLES IN 

Looking over all the stats, form past tournaments and past winners, there are some obvious pointers, it seems were looking for a mix of players who are straight off the tee, with a mix of good iron players and short game wizards, players have excelled here with good SGOTT-SGTTG-SGAPR.

As correlations go there are a couple of courses that keep popping up, the Heritage is one of them, with most the players who have won the Charles Schwab have played well or won at Harbour Town, also the Sony and Houston open have shown the same similarities.

WEATHER

The weather predicted is , sunny thursday and friday with highs of 89, but saturday and sunday is predicted to be windy with gusts up to 20-30mph.

CHARLES SCHWAB BETTING PICKS

SPEITH 12/1 3PTS EW 8  PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

Jordan has seen a very good few months in the golfing world, unfortunately he didn’t win the PGA, but was won last month at Harbour town and 2nd at the AT&T, Hes, been steady all year and has missed three cuts along the way.

Spieth has worked hard on his swing and is getting more consistency off the tee, Hes’s 12th in SGT2G and 18th SGAPR, which is a vast improvement from the past two years.

The thing Jordan was renowned for which was his putting has let him down of late but this is just a phase and it will start working for him again, even when he won at the RBC he lost –0.57 on the field for putting. 

Jordan is no stranger to this tournament with him winning here in 2016, the local lad also posted a 2nd- T10th- T8th- T32- T2nd – T2nd- T7th, as you can see, he likes it here, with six top ten and three 2nds, make no mistake he will be contending this come Sunday.

ABRAHAM ANCER 25/1  2PTS EW 8 PLS  BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

Mr Ancer who is another player from around these parts, born in Mcallen- Texas he now resides in San Antonio.

The last time Abraham won was in 2021 in the ST Jude Invitational, so Hes now chasing his second win, he ranks 21st in the world at the moment and has established himself as a consistent player and is renowned for his good ball striking.

KEVIN NA 45/1 1PT EW 8 PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

We are going for another former winner Kevin Na, Hes no stranger to this course, with him winning in 2019, Hes also posted 4TH- T32- T22- T42 here with a couple of missed cuts along the way.

Kevin has also posted the course recorded 61 in 2018 and also posted 62 in the same week but still lost to Justin Rose.

So far this year he has posted four top 20s and two missed cuts along the way he T14th at the masters, all the stats lean towards SGT2G and Kevin hasn’t got great stats this year so far but as you now things can change, in 2019 when he won, he gained 3.38 T2G in round four so please don’t discount him.

MUNOZ 50/1 1PT EW 8 PLS BOYLE

The Columbian known as Sebastian Munoz has been in great form this year without winning, the lad went locally to the university of North Texas,

Munoz has come so close to winning, prior to the PGA he T3rd at the Byron Nelson, he went to 51st in the world rankings making it the highest Hes been in the world, 

This year alone he has only missed one cut, he has six top 30s, he has only one win so far on the tour, that being at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

His stats so far this year read SGOTT 55th SGT2G 47th SGAPR 63RD SGGIR 59th SGARG T83rd SGPUTT 158th.

As course form goes He has  missed a couple of cuts, and Hes T3rd here last year, but I’m more than happy to go with his current form which for me stands him in good stead for the tournament.

KIRK 40/1 1PT EW 8PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS 

Chris has been a hard person to pick, due to the form which is always up and down

he’s T5th at the PGA Championship, but prior to that he missed two cuts , so far this year he has had three top tens and a T14th but has also has six MC in total so were taking a chance.

Kirk has won three times on the tour with one of the wins here at Colonial in 2015, which was his last win as well, but when he’s on his game he’s an excellent iron player.

The stats this year read SGOTT 28th SGT2G 7th SGAPR T31 SGGIR 81st SGARG 7th SGPUTT 135th, Chris gained 1.23ARG and 1.09APP at the PGA Championship, and 3.26 total.

RILEY 33/1 2 PTS EW 8PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS 

Davis is a bit of an enigma, he turned professional at 2019 , he went to college in Alabama. He has two professional wins to his name on the KFT but hasn’t broken his Maiden on the PGA Tour yet. 

His form this year has been really good, he has gone close on several times he finished T13th at the PGA Championship, T9th at the Byron Nelson, 5th Mexico Open, 2nd at the Valspar, yes there are three missed cuts along the way but he comes into this in good heart.

Davis ranked 6th SGAPP gaining 1.61 and 6th SGOTT gaining 1.26, SGT2G 7TH gaining 2.40, these should give him a good chance to get his Maiden win 

Receive the latest Golf Tips, Fantasy Golf updates & Golf Stats direct to your inbox. You will only receive tips and fantasy golf information from Waggle Duff and your data will not be shared.

Join 57 other subscribers

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING APPROACH by @MattTizzardGolf

Hi all

A reduced article this week of all weeks. It’s been a challenge but I am happy with my plays!

If you wish to take part in my free-to-play fantasy golf game, the link is here >> LINK

If you are looking to have a bet and want £20 of free bets, click the ad below!

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

Thanks as ever for your support of Waggle Duff, good luck with your plays this week. Be sure to check out the other previews by NELSONSGOLF TIPS and RH_G0lf here >> LINK

Last time out with the coupon

A frustrating week and our first blank in a while. Albeit, only 1 of our 6 picks missed the cut. Will Zalatoris actually hit it ok on Thursday and Friday, yet missed the cut due to the familiar issues with his rather long, short stick.

Our 100/1 shots of Lashley & Lipsky both flirted with places over the weekend. Finishing -18 & -17 respectably, I can’t really complain with the process. They both played well, but scoring was easy and they ended up a few shots away from picking up 20u each!

Until that bunker shot on 13, JT looked well in the mix. I certainly will be back on JT at The PGA Championship this week. He finished 5th but I didn’t shoot EW on him.

Therefore, tied in with a poor week on The DP World Tour. Following not 1, 2 but 3 Connor Syme collapses (will keep tabs on him!). We have a -9u week and now are only +3u on the year. The downswing continues but again on The PGA Tour, our picks play well. As Arsenal Manager Mikael  Arteta would say, trust the process.

The betting spreadsheet has been updated on The Betting Blog, and we roll ahead into the 2nd Major of the year!

The PGA Championship

To Oaklahoma where The PGA Championship will be held for the 104th time at Southern Hills Golf Club. As a European, it’s safe for me to say that The PGA Championship or USPGA Championship is the least-watched of the 4. 

However, I believe there are many reasons to tune in. Firstly the PGA Championship is the strongest field in golf. A maximum of 156 golfers compete for the Wanamaker Trophy and qualify through a meritocracy based format. The current criteria to date included (from Wikipedia)

  • Every former PGA Champion.
  • Winners of the last five U.S. Opens.
  • The winners of the last five Masters.
  • Winners of the last five Open Championships.
  • Winners of the last three The Players Championships.
  • The current Senior PGA Champion.
  • The low 15 scorers and ties in the previous PGA Championship.
  • The 20 low scorers in the last PGA Professional Championship.
  • The 70 leaders in official money standings on the PGA Tour (starting one week before the previous year’s PGA Championship and ending two weeks before the current year’s PGA Championship).
  • Members of the most recent United States and European Ryder Cup Teams, provided they are in the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking as of one week before the start of the tournament.
  • Any tournament winner co-sponsored or approved by the PGA Tour since the previous PGA Championship .
  • The PGA of America reserves the right to invite additional players not included in the categories listed above.
  • The total field is a maximum of 156 players. Vacancies are filled by the first available player from the list of alternates (those below 70th place in official money standings).

From a betting perspective, the PGA Championship you will find the most amount of “long-shots.” For example, even last year, Phil Michelson won at Kiawah Island and was 200/1 at some bookmakers. Looking through the list, Martin Kaymer & Keegan Bradley won in 2010 and 2011 which was their major “breakthroughs.” Who also can forget Y.E Yang holding off Tiger Woods in Minnesota in 2009.

The point is, that major breakthroughs and slightly longer – shots can compete in this event. My only reluctance to fill my card with players in the 80 – 120 /1 mark is the course. I do believe the set-up will ensure the cream rises. Particularly those who are strongest from 120 yards and in. 

SOUTHERN HILLS – The Course

Southern Hills Country club is a Par 70 a smidge over 7300 yards. The greens are many players putting favorite, bent grass and the fairways are very tight Bermuda grass. The reason for this is it brings roll-off areas into play. A miss placed approach can land and end up 50 yards away through the slopes of the course.

We saw Southen Hills last year when Alex Cejka won (1000/1 this week). I watched this back and found that he was leading after round 1 and went on to win by 4 shots at -8. He put his win down to the fact he’s 50 and he is now driving it better. I think this course doesn’t crush you for being out o position from the tee, but it will with the 2nd shot. Particularly from the rough. 

We did see the course also in the noughties, however, there has been significant work since. 

I am writing quite factually, hold on, this is a beautiful parkland course. One of the best in America in parkland. It’s tree-lined, albeit many have been stripped since Tiger Woods last the Wanamaker Trophy here in 2007

There is plenty of elevation into the greens, aesthetically it’s a fantastic course. The 1st and 10th tee are up high and you tee off down into battle. Streams meander throughout the course, some dry and some still full of water. When Maxwell redesigned the course, this position of the streams in conjunction with the greens was taken fully advantage of throughout. 

It’s make-up includes, 4 Par 3s, 12 Par 4s, and 2 Par 5s which are a monstrous 632 & 656 yards. Will I factor that into my picks? No to be honest.

Anyway, this is a natural, undulating site and what the designers have done is calved out something that is beautiful & complicated. I imagine professional golfers and visitors love to play here.

It reminds me of The Masters aesthetically. Yes this typically is the major we are “least” interested in over here. Maybe not this week.

The Weather

The Weather will play a key factor. If the firm and fast, I could see the winning score around -8. However, if softer it could be closer to -18.

The weather looks to be warm and clear, with possible rain on Friday. Therefore, in terms of AM/ PM starts. I am not factoring that into my picks.

Key Stats Analysed

  • Driving accuracy
  • Strokes gained approach
  • Strokes gained putting

I have been complex over the last few weeks, maybe overly so. Therefore I am going to look at the course and say this. If you are in the rough it’s going to be very hard to find the greens. The run-off areas will find you and the terrain is a further factor that makes ball control difficult. 

Ultimately, players that are on the fairway, WILL HAVE to be tuned in with the PW and down. To ensure optimum strikes to keep that ball on the green.

After Will Zalatoris crushed me with his terrible putting, I am not entertaining flushers with average short sticks.  No sir, not this week.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PICKS

Justin Thomas 16/1 – 6 places  Boyle Sports

As a golf fan, I really feel like it’s coming for JT. I am picking him because his strokes gained in approach is +1.07 over the past 24 rounds and this is a statistic I am leaning on. The only player in the top of the market that can beat that is Cam Smith.

His T2G game is solid and the putter is working. He has 3 Top 10s in his last 5 starts. 

I thought Thomas was excellent last week as a tipped him at the AT&T Byron Nelson. His swing looks in great shape and he was once more shaping the ball as we know he can. I particularly enjoyed his right to left draws and slings. Taking some anecdotal information from Andy Lack, he believes a drawer of the ball will prefer this course. Another tick on JT.

Shane Lowry 25/1 1u – 8 places Boyle Sports

I have noticed that Shane is very popular this week. I would have expected it anyway considering his ball-striking clinics of late. Also, the putter is working. 

The only thing that concerns me with Shane is his “closeability” having had shots in the early parts of the year to win again.

If the course gets firmer and faster I think the jolly Irishman can stick with the pace. Having won The Open where you need a shit hot short game, that side of Lowry’s game will always keep him in touch. The difference is right now, the swing is on point.

Shane is one of the most in-form putters in the field and currently is gaining 0.82 shots in the approach (over past 24 rounds).

Abraham Ancer 90/1 6 places 0.75u – Boyle Sports

Out of the 4 Majors, The PGA Championship as I said, is often the first for players to win. 

Statistically, Abraham matches up. He is one of the straightest off the tee on the entire PGA Tour. His iron play needs to improve this week but you cannot argue with the putter. He is the 4th best putter playing this week, gaining 0.84 strokes (based on 24 previous rounds).

Abraham had a good week at the matchplay but hasn’t played near his best since. When I noted his prices creeping up I thought it was a good value play. I won’t say no to 90/1

Min Woo Lee  200/1 12 Places 0.5u – Boyle Sports

This lad has a bright future in the game and I am going to be consistent with him while the price is so high. My thoughts are, if I back in at 200 / 400/1 over the next 2 or 3 years, that is a + EV decision. 

Fans of the DP World Tour will know Min Woo very well. Particularly from his impressive victory in Scotland. There isn’t sufficient data to pull game trends, but I backed him at The Masters where he finished 14th. 

Finally, I will be taking Speith at the best Outright price I can find and I don’t think I can say any more about him.  Readers will know how much I analyze his game, it’s there alright. I also will take 0.25u on DP World Tour player Ryan Fox.

This has been a challenging week personally to keep the blog up to date, hence why it’s a short one this week. I can’t wait to settle down and watch this weekend. Oh, and the missus is away!

Have a  good week all and good luck.

Matt Tizzard

The PGA Championship Preview & Tips by @RH_G0lf

The PGA Championship Preview & Tips by @RH_G0LF, follow on the links below

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

The 104th PGA Championship takes place this week at Sothern Hills in Oklahoma. The 2nd major of the year consists of one of the strongest fields this PGA Championship has ever had so looks set to be one of the great weeks of the year. There are just the 31 major champions taking to the field to compete for The Wanamaker Trophy.  A total of 156 players including 20 PGA pros will start proceedings in a bid to win the $2Million 1st prize & their name in the history books as a Major winner.

Phil Mickelson will not defend this week after withdrawing last week which only adds to the LIV situation but the less said about that this week the better. Its Major week not LIV week. He wasn’t the only withdrawal of the top ranked players with Paul Casey, Harris English, Kazuki Higa & Jimmy Walker already passing this week for various reasons. There are also doubts around whether Bryson will be teeing it up just 4 weeks after hand surgery, but he has posted a swing video this week, but he will be very rusty. There is also Sungjae Im who withdrew overnight. I was hoping to take him this week, but he flew to Korea to support a home event last week & withdrew just before his tee time because he contracted Covid which now means he will struggle to leave Korea & also enter the United States with the health regulations hence the withdrawal.

Last week’s Recap

Last week saw another birdie fest at Craig Ranch for the Byrson Nelson with KH Lee winning at -26. A 2nd year running where the course was taken apart with ultra-low scoring with a 59 watch in play on a few rounds. Hopefully the organiser will investigate this for next year as for me it’s not the best golf in the world to watch. Nobody likes a putting contest. KH defended his title at 100-1 pre-event price.

From a betting perspective it was a shocker from me but that’s golf betting for you. I was very confident in Zalatoris & Gooch going into this week but at -4 & -3 after 2 rounds wasn’t enough to make the cut. Another reason this event is not for me with a cut line of -4. It was four missed cuts in the end this week for me so onto this week very swiftly.

Course

Name – Southern Hills Country Club

Location – Tulsa, Oklahoma

Established – 1936

Design by – Parry Maxell 1936 & renovated by Gil Hanse 2019

Par – 70

Length 7556

Par 3s – 4 Measuring between 173 & 230 Average of 212

Par 4s – 12 Measuring between 377 & 522 Average of 436

Par 5s – 2 Measuring Between 632 & 656 Average of 644

Greens – Bentgrass

Fairways – Bermudagrass

Water – In play on 15 holes

Bunkers – 87

https://www.pgachampionship.com/news-and-media/videos/2022/southern-hills-drone-shot

Events hosted

2021 – Senior PGA Championship

2009 – US Amateur

2007 – PGA Championship

2001 – US Open

1994 – PGA Championship

1982 – PGA Championship

1977 – US Open

1970 – PGA Championship

1958 – US Open

2007 Edition

Tiger Woods won the 2007 edition of the PGA Championship the last time Southern Hills hosted this event. After an opening round of 71 +1 Tiger shot one of the rounds of the week on Friday with a 63 to sit 2 clear at the half way stage. Business as usual for tiger at the weekend shooting two rounds of 69 to win by 2 shots at 8under par ahead of Woody Austin -6 & The Big Easy -5.

17 of these weeks field also competed in this event back in 2007. Garcia was disqualified after round three for an incorrect scorecard. Stenson, Zach Johnson, Bubba, Yang, & Beem all missed the cut. Tiger won, Adam Scott & Justin Rose were both 12th, Poulter 23rd, Mickelson, Cink, Westwood, Micheel & Daly all 32nd Harrington 42nd & Glover 50th.

RH_G0Lf Selections:

Justin Thomas 2PTS 12-1 Boylesports 11 Places

Value Play 2PTS 16-1 William Hill 9 Places

I still find it hard to believe JT only has one major to his name with the 2017 PGA Championship. He has 13 career PGA Tour victories to go with his major win. He has been one of the best players in the world for a few years now winning at least once every year on tour since 2015. He added another top 10 last week at the birdie blitz Byron Nelson. He has 6 top 10s in 10 starts which is sensational form going into a Major. JT finished 8th at Augusta after an opening 76 so did amazing to come back so well & it was a what could have been week for him. A Solid start this week will be essential for the word no 8 & a hot putter. The putter has been very cold this year so far ranking 104th on tour. Jim Mackay on the bag to add his years of major experience will also be advantageous to JT this week.

Key stats

Off the Tee – 27th

Approach the Green – 5th

Around the Green – 24th

Putting – 82nd  

Tee to green – 3rd

Greens in regulation – 30th (69.32%)

Scoring average – 5th (69.645)

Hideki Matsuyama 28-1 Boylesports 11 Places

Value Play 30-1 Skybet 10 Places

Hideki took a few weeks out recently after the masters with his injuries he’s been having lately to recover. He came back last week & finished 3rd showing even with the short lay off his game is still in a great place. The injuries are hopefully behind him now as he had a few Withdrawals at the start of the year & lead up to Augusta. Even with the niggling injuries he’s still had solid finishes, yet to miss a cut still this year & has one win & 2 more top 10 finishes. With the course looking likely to be playing long this week & approaches over 200 yards possible on numerous hole he is one of the best from this range, he ranks in the top 10 from 200-275 yards. Not only is his long game fantastic he also ranks no lower than 40th in the 75–175-yard categories so clearly striking it very well.

Key Stats

Off the Tee – 57th

Approach the Green – 6th

Around the Green – 54th

Putting – 143rd

Tee to Green – 9th

Greens in Regulation – 7th (71.09%)

Scoring Average – 12th (70.070)

Shane Lowry 22-1 Boylesports 11 Places

Value Play 33-1 Skybet 10 Places

Shane has every chance this week of picking up his 2nd major. He is fantastic form of late with a 3rd at the RBC Heritage & a 3RD the week before at the Masters. Shane comes into this week full of confidence but is still winless since the 2019 Open Championship however he has picked up 11 top 10 finishes in that time. He is 9 for 9 in cuts made this year with a worst finish in a stroke play event of 24th which is a fantastic return. With his last 2 starts of 3rd place he also has a 2nd place at the tricky Honda Classic & 4 more top 15 finishes.  His approach game & putting are statically some of the best on tour, he is 2nd for proximity to the hole which will be vital with the relatively small greens this week & severe run offs that will be catching players out.

Key stats

Off the Tee – 64th

Approach the Green – 4th

Around the Green – 143rd

Putting – 13th

Tee to green – 24th

Greens in regulation – 43rd (68.65%)

Scoring average 3rd (69.524)

Matthew Fitzpatrick 33-1 Boylesports 11 Places

Value play 50-1 William Hill 9 Places

If you’re going to dangle 50-1 on the world no 17 who ranks 1st for strokes gained total, then I’m afraid that is the no1 auto bet of the week. Even if he misses the cut this week, I can’t not take Fitzy at such a good price.  Matthew has had some great tournaments so far this year with 5 top 10s in just 8 Strokeplay starts. To go with that he also finished 14th at the Masters. He is just missing that first win stateside which once he wins one I’m pretty sure it will have a Scottie Scheffler effect on him.  The Sheffield lad certainly has all the attributes needed to win this week especially the short game which will no doubt come into play at some point. Nobody is going to hit every green so scrabbling will be crucial & he ranks 3rd on tour for this.

Key Stats

Off the Tee – 14th

Approach the Green – 24th

Around the Green – 19th

Putting – 19th

Tee to Green – 6th

Green in Regulation – 101st (66.51%)

Scoring Average – 4th (69.627)

Talor Gooch 66-1 Boylesports 11 Places

Value Play 100-1 Paddy Power 10 Places

I’m going put last weeks missed cut on the burner & forget it happened. He still managed to shoot 3 under for 2 rounds which 9/10 is normally good enough to see the weekend. Gooch rose to a career high 31st in the world rankings at the start of the year after his win at the RSM Classic & had a great Master’s Debut finishing 14th. Just 1 top 10 this year at the Arnold Palmer but has 7 top 30 finishes so game is clearly in good shape coming into the 2nd major of the year. His form is very similar to that of Jimmy Walker when he won the PGA so I’m hopeful Gooch has the same luck. Talor is an Oklahoma Resident so has the luxury of being able to stay at home this week & will be able to have close family & fiends at the event giving him support but best of all he gets his own bed.

Key Stats

Off the Tee – 133rd

Approach the Green – 21st

Around the Green – 7th

Putting – 93rd  

Tee to Green – 29th

Greens in Regulation – 26th (69.69%)

Scoring Average – 19th (70.218)

Harold Varner 80-1 Boylesports 11 Places

Value Play 125-1 Paddy Power 10 Places

The Saudi Invitational winner is looking for his maiden Major this week. He comes into this major in the best place his game has been in pre major. A 3rd place finish at the RBC heritage, a 23rd at Augusta & 6th at the Players show he’s playing well in the stronger field events this year. He also has the Asia Tour Victory where he landed a monster putt on the 72nd hole to steal victory away from Bubba Watson.  If you go on Butch Harmons Socials, he is always full of praise for Harold which has shown in his performances lately. He couldn’t add another major winner to his resume could her?

Key stats

Off the Tee – 135th

Approach the Green – 52nd

Around the Green – 30th

Putting – 60th

Tee to green – 57th

Scoring average – 63rd (70.82)

Ante Posts

Sam Burns 80-1 – Was my player to watch this year on the PGA so when I saw 80-1 on offer at the start of the year, I jumped on that. 6 Places

Other notables –

I will be looking at the top 20 top 40 markets for these guys.

Min Woo Lee – 14th at Augusta on Debut & will want to replicate his sister last week who won on the LPGA

Rikuya Hoshino – the best form player in Japan right now, finishing in the top 10 5 starts in a row.

Sadom Kaewkanjana – The current best ranked player from Thailand. In his last 18 starts he has won 4 times & has 5 more top 10s to go with it.

Pablo Larrazabal – not your usual household major name but in great form on the DP world. He has won twice in 5 starts & has 3 more top 10s in 7 starts.

Could make for a good 4 fold Acca or Lucky 15 if the prices are right.

Odds correct as of 20:00 15/5/22

Good luck with all bets

Ryan Hamilton

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2022 PREVIEW & PICKS by @NelsonsGolfTips

By @NelsonsGolfTips

Southern Hills Country Club

The 104th PGA Championship and the Wanamaker trophy will return to Southern Hills Country Club; this is the only club to host four PGA Championships and now five.

The last time it hosted was when the great Tiger Woods won by beating Woody Austin by two shots, let’s hope we see the master back where he belongs.

As you would expect the field assembled is a stellar one.

The market is a three-way heading with new world number one Scheffler, Rahm and Mcllroy with Thomas, Morikawa and Johnson close by.

COURSE

Southern Hills Country Club is located in Tulsa, the Championship course, it’s a par 71 featuring three par 5s and four par 3s measuring 7481 yards.

This course was designed in 1936 by Perry Maxwell and renovated in 2019 by Gil Hanse.

Seven major championships for men have been hosted here, four PGA Championships (1970, 1982, 1994, 2007) and three U.S. Open (1958, 1977, 2001). It’s also hosted the first-ever U.S. Womens mid-Amateur in 1987, and 2021 senior PGA Championship.

The greens were all redone with Pure Distinction bentgrasss, underground drainage pipes were all brought to the surface to create a creek system running throughout the golf course.

Cozby the director of golf at Southern Hills says Hanse’s restoration work has made the course more aesthetically pleasing, while probably also making it a bit more difficult.

Listening to Hanse talk about the renovation and regeneration was so insightful, he talks about how he wanted to strip the course back to its former glory,

He goes on to explain that Hes opened up the fairways and returned the edges to the greens creating run offs so any errant wedge shot will be punished. 

10th Hole

Hanse has gone on to say, the changes are evident on many holes on the course, but they stick out most clearly on nos,10,17 and 18, holes that will play a pivotal role in determining the 2022 PGA Championship.

The first hole is a very challenging opening hole. It’s long (451 yards) and the green complex runs away from you. It’s a good hole to hit the centre of the green and walk off with a par.

The 200-yard par-3 sixth hole was a thorn in the side of many a player in 2007, Angel Cabrera ruined his chances by shooting a 10.

Hanse has moved the seventh green back 40-50 yards, The fairway slopes from left to right with the creek coming into play more now on the right side, making it even more important to hit the green.

The par four 15th– 417 yards, is noted to play as one of the top five most difficult holes in a major Championship. 

I’m confident in saying that this will be an awesome venue, that has made a change for the better and will be remembered for an amazing Championship.

HISTORY

PAST TEN WINNERS

2011 Bradley 272

2012 Mcllroy 275

2013 Dufner 270

2014 Mcllroy 268

2015 Day 268

2016 Walker 266

2017 Thomas 276

2018 Keopka 264

2019 Keopka 272 

2020 Morikawa 267

2021 Mickleson 282

Last year’s event was won by Phil Mickelson won’t be defended this year, which is such a shame.

WEATHER

The weather this week should be ok with winds expected to be as high as 10-20 mph, there maybe a few stray showers on the Saturday, and highs of 74. The weather shouldn’t affect the outcome of the Championship.

ANGLE IN

So, looking through what little stats we have, there are some small tit bits, looking through past winners we have Goosen winning here and at Shinnecock hills in 2004, and Floyd winning at both venues, we also have Pavin second here and winning at Shinnecock.

After listening to Hanse its apparent this is going to be a second shot competition with accuracy off the tee and GIR an essential, we will be looking for someone who can navigate round the course and has a solid scrambling game.

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

PICKS

BROOKS KOEPKA  33/1 3PTS EW BOYLE 11PLS 1/5 ODDS

This man needs no introduction to the PGA Championship Hes a twice winner of the Wanamaker trophy and two time us open, champion, he also has 8 PGA Tour wins to his name.

Brooks has been struggling of late with his what with his injured wrist, then his both knees had to be sorted, he couldn’t even bend down to read a putt.

Koepka is quoted as saying, I’m playing fine so fine is where I’m at, in short battered Brooks is gone, Brooks the destroyer of the world, is back. Adjust your bets accordingly.

His recent form reads MC-T5-T12-MC-T16-MC-T2, and his stats are SGT2G 108TH-SGOTT 70TH-SGAPR T110TH- GIR 131ST– SGARG 156TH– SGPUTT T76TH.

As you can see the stats are not great but this is no ordinary person, this is a major winning machine that smell glory again.

CAMERON SMITH 18/1 3PTS EW BOYLE 11PLS 1/5 ODDS

We couldn’t leave such a good player out who has this year, and has been consistently there, Hes won twice already, with a wind at the 5th Major the Players Championship and 1st at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Cameron has had a couple of missed cuts along the way, but both only by two shots, so that can be excused, his last outing was in the doubles format, the Zurich classic where he T21 with his partner Leishman.

His results this year read, T21-MC-T3-1ST-T37-T4-1st-MC, his stats on the course are, SGOTT 143RD– SGT2G 28TH-SGAPR 6TH-GIR 6TH SGARG T37TH-SGPUTT 4TH.

Cameron is one or if not the best iron player on the tour, and with the open wide fairways its essential to have a good iron player, he also never gets flustered and we defiantly need a calm head in a Major Championship, I’m hoping to see that mullet bouncing down the 18th fairway with a smile on his face.

VICTOR HOVLAND 20/1 3PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

The smiling assassin is ready and for me going to take one of his many majors in waiting, his quest so for a major has yielded little luck, his best finish was T12th at the US Open in 2019 and T12th at the Open Championship.

Victor has already won three times on the PGA Tour with him winning the Mayakoba Classic twice and the Hero world championship, Hes already won once this year in Dubai.

There has only just been one MC this year and four top ten, Victor is on top of his game with him up to world number 6, his iron play is second to none and he will be contending come Sunday.

His stats this year read as, SGOTT 12th- SGT2G 37th -SGAPR 3rd – GIR 17th- SGARG 210th- SGPUTT 50th. As you can see Victor is still weak around the greens but every week, he grows stronger and better.

Have trust in seeing that big smile come Sunday and lift his first major.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 28/1- 2PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

The enigmatic Hideki is going for his second major after capturing the fairy tale Masters last year, which will not be forgotten for some time in Japan.

Matsu has made a solid start to the year, he started where he left off last year, and won at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Hes only played eight events this year, not sure why but I do know Hes competed well.

His form this year has yielded one win, four top 20s and a WD, he defended his Masters with a creditable T14th, he also has some good form in past majors, T2 US Open 2017- T4- 2016 PGA Championship- T6- 2013 Open Championship.

Hideki’s stats this year read as SGOTT 62nd -SGT2G 13th-SGAPR 12th– GIR 12th– SGARG 49TH – SGPUTT 154th.

The stats speak for themselves, and for Hideki to win this then he needs a good week with the putter, when he won the Sony, he gained 1.82 with the flat stick so it can be done. 

Matsuyama has the all-round game to become the PGA Champion, his approach play is a sight to behold, so let’s get on him and make some money.

MATT FITZPATRICK 33/1 2PTS EW BOYLE

So far, his first PGA Tour victory has eluded Matt, Hes come close on a few occasions recently, Hes had five top ten so far this season, with a T2 at Wells Fargo the most recent. 

He gained +1.19 OTT and +3.20 in total at Potomac and was probably undone by the torrential rain 

Fitzpatrick has seven DPWT victories to his name, with his last coming in the Abu Dhabi Championships in Dubai.

Matt has the guile off the tee, and will help him to get around this course, Hes’s 6th in SGT2G and 15th SGOTT, and as you can see, he 24th SGAPR which will be vitally important in this tournament.

Matt is also third in scrambling this year and with the rough around the creeks and greens, it could prove invaluable. 

TOMMY FLEETWOOD 66/1 0.5PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE

I’m adding another Brit to my selections, world number 43 has been ultra-consistent this year without getting his head in front, his approach stats all year have been solid, only at the Honda has he not gained on the field.

In all recent Majors Hes always been there about without winning, which shows he has the mentality for it, Hes come close a few times with a 2nd and 4th in the US Open and 2nd in the Open championship.

His results this year are, MC- T10TH- T14TH- T35TH – T16TH –T22ND –T20TH –MC –T8TH –T12TH. As you can see three top ten and 6th top 20s.

His numbers this year read as SGOTT 92ND – SGT2G 52ND– SGAPR 133RD – GIR 178TH –SGARG 4TH – SGPUTT 8TH.

Although his numbers don’t read as you would want, tommy hasn’t got so many top ten without playing well, and Hes only one good round away from his first PGA win.

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Approach

The AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Approach by MattTizzardGolf

It’s the week before the PGA Championship. Many of the big guns return to the field in the Dallas suburb of McKinney. Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Xander Schauffele makes his first appearance at this event. Oh, and Scottie Scheffler returns to action after a couple of weeks off.

Last time out with the coupon

A loss on The PGA Tour at the Wells Fargo. With Brian Harman grabbing a place on Boyles Sport that has been split about a million different ways. I did have Olesen over on The DP World Tour but got way too trigger-happy having been attending the event. The week in total ended up +2.5 and the spreadsheet is all updated on the website. You will see I did go very over the top because I was at The Belfry! We live and learn!

If you are new to my golf articles, hello! I basically whip through my thought process, the analytics I have researched, and spew out some picks. Simples.

If you wanted to support my work you can by taking our exclusive Boyle Sports sign-up offer and grab £20 of free bets. Simply click the link below to get underway and take advantage of the £20 free bet offer!

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

After last week’s spend fest on Saturday at The Belfry I am +12.4u for the year.

TPC Craig Ranch – The Course

This Byron Nelson Betting preview is focused on the course, TPC Craig Ranch, a Par 72, 7468 yards. The course was a Korn Ferry qualifying course (Nationwide) but hosted The PGA Tour in 2021. We can look at last year for some guidance, however not a complete picture, which I will explain later in the article.

Tom Weiskopf designed the course, I read a quote in Golf Digest, “I may not give you access to every pin,” he once said, “but I’ll give you the middle of the green every time.” Weiskopf has a number of well-known courses that he has designed or co-designed, including Troon North GC, TPC Scottsdale, Loch Lomond, Scotland & Quail Hollow CC, Ohio.

As you research Weiskopf courses, the common theme writers mention is his love for a drivable par4, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the par 4 14th selected for the Aon Risk Reward Challenge.

The best way to describe the course is, well, “standard.” It is a standard 72 with 4 par 5s, 4 par 3s about 10 par 4s. It has the players’ favourite of bentgrass putting greens but the not so common Zoysia fairways. The greens are large, not quite the same size as the Mexico Open but on the larger size.

Zoysia Fairways are one of the most robust grasses and somewhat typical to see across Texas. Rickie Fowler was quoted saying he liked the surface having played on it while at College. Studies have shown that it’s expensive, dense but easy to manage with a low amount of water. Therefore, I can expect that despite the length of the course, the ball should roll out and play shorter than last year. Zoysia has been said to require a third of the water of its competitors in the soil. I understand from looking online that Texas holistically hasn’t had the same rainfall that it had last year. When the course was very much target golf. Don’t get me wrong, I do expect the same, but not quite to the extent as last year. The ball will run, and landing areas will be a little more important.

The organisers actually played this course 200 yards shorter one-day last year. That was also because of how wet the course was, and it became target golf. The course was as easy as it could have been. However, I do expect a low winning score, but I don’t think the cut will be quite -5 again.

Byron Nelson – Course Correlation

The recent venue of Vidanta (Mexico Open) and a course from earlier this year Plantation course Kapalua (tournament of Champions). TPC Deere Run is another easy course with the same bent grass greens that the players will face this week. My article will predominately focus on TPC Scottsdale due to it also being designed by Weiskopf.

Weather

It’s going to be roasting hot (33C) with some gusts (24KpH). This will provide a challenge to the players, but I don’t think will affect the birdie opportunities we are going to see!

Stats Considered

Looking at the stats from last year, a 30,000 feet look tells me that iron play and putting is the key to win here. However, I think making all decisions based on last year’s stats is a risky approach. The course was straightforward off the tee and into the approach. Weiskopf courses will always give you access to the centre of the green and it was a lot wetter than it will be this year.

Therefore, I am going to ignore our classic short game experts. The reason for that is, if we are looking at players that grind and graft well for par. I think those players won’t be competing at the top of the leaderboard because I expect birdies. The complete opposite of last week at the Wells Fargo.

TPC Craig Ranch ranks 2nd in Strokes gained in approach out of 43 correlated courses on rickrungood.com and 7th in putting. Perhaps, the picture has been made already.

You also need to find players that are accurate, however, and to my surprise, driving distance is ranked 39th. This means you can find many players that are good in the approach and good putters. The caveat and where I need to be careful, is I need to be sure that my picks have and can get to -20. It could quite easily be that low of a week.

This correlates well with TPC Scottdale, another Weiskopf design course. Where the approach is of upmost importance (ranked 6th / 43 correlated courses: rickrungood.com)

Therefore, these are the stats I will look into, I will then take my picks

STATS

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Strokes Gained in Approach
  • Strokes Gained in Putting
  • Putting 15 feet

Driving Accuracy

Here are the Top 20 most accurate Drivers on The PGA Tour this year.

RANKPLAYER NAMEROUNDS%
1Ryan Armour3874.63
2Brian Stuard7171.35
3Abraham Ancer4970.03
4Satoshi Kodaira2669.58
5Chez Reavie5969.55
6Henrik Stenson2569.44
7Brendon Todd5969.43
8Tyler Duncan5369.33
9Jim Herman4169.26
10Brian Harman5469.22
11Kevin Streelman6069.17
12Kevin Kisner5068.81
13Russell Knox6968.59
14Joel Dahmen6168.35
15Austin Cook4568.34
16Louis Oosthuizen2968.33
17Hayden Buckley5768.15
18Vaughn Taylor3568.12
19Collin Morikawa3868.03
20Daniel Berger2967.93

The fairways are massive here, but I am keen to see if there are any players that are leading in SGAPR or on the putting green that complete the package. There isn’t too much to shout about, but I wanted to demonstrate my thought process when narrowing down a field. I am not as weighted towards Driving Accuracy, as I was at The RBC or Wells Fargo, because these are much wider fairways that the players will be aiming at.

Strokes Gained in Approach

I just can’t bring myself to back Kitayama again. However, he is the leader in the field over the last 25 rounds in shots gained through approach (1.39). Other leaders in the field include.

  • Justin Thomas 1.03
  • David Lipsky 0.89
  • Adam Hadwin 0.84
  • Jhonattan Vegas 0.84
  • Scottie Scheffler 0.68
  • Brandon Wu 0.76
  • Austin Smotherman 0.76

Strokes Gained in Putting

Ok, this is where we start to hit some players that I like the look of. Let’s once more look at the best 20 players holistically on tour.

RANK THIS WEEKPLAYER NAMEROUNDSAVERAGE
1Brian Gay391.068
2Tyrrell Hatton421.009
3Scott Brown270.945
4Cameron Smith360.922
5Lucas Herbert330.82
6Beau Hossler400.78
7Kelly Kraft450.756
8Tommy Fleetwood350.747
9Billy Horschel460.697
10Martin Trainer540.695
11Kevin Kisner500.681
12Brendon Todd590.662
13Denny McCarthy680.641
14Matt Kuchar470.638
15Mackenzie Hughes490.634
16Shane Lowry350.622
17Adam Scott380.602
18Troy Merritt570.599
19Matthias Schwab460.595
20Scottie Scheffler570.588

This is where I can start to find some players that I like. Again, we cannot ignore Scottie Scheffler. Brendon Todd, who ran well for me in Mexico appears, as does Tommy Fleetwood, who has gained on average a boeing 0.747 in shots gained putting. This is good to see from Tommy, I have watched him for many years. It’s the Driver and the Putter that can slow him down.

Putting 15 feet

Players that lead in this field of note include, Adam Long, Sam Ryder who led at stages last year and Nate Lashley. The best on tour is Sung Kang, who I have quoted in the podcast as being last years winner. That will go down well with the betting community!

Betting Picks

The top of the leaderbaord is pretty strong. I can see DJ or JT winning, so I will back JT, but I am not too worried about Xander & Brooks. Scottie won’t win again…. Right?

Finally, everyone knows my love for Kurt Katayama. My thoughts are that this field is much deeper and Kitty’s form will unfortunately come to an end. I expect to take one last bullet on Talor Gooch, Kurt Kitayama or Brandon Wu.

Will Zalatoris 20/1 – 10 places – Boyle Sports

Zalatoris was once more exceptional at The Masters, but time has ticked on. I know Will is going to be tipped left, right and centre this week and for good reason.

It’s a ball-striking paradise and I like his game where iron play is key, especially some of the longer irons. The concern is that it’s going to be a putting competition, particularly with that middle of the green access you get here.

However, Will putted well at The Masters. I am fully aware that watching that putting action for 72 holes is going to be tough going but I am happy to accept the challenge. He will find the middle of the greens, and if he can roll it, he can be in with a shout.

When I ran my model for this week Will was 8th, only the market leaders really featured ahead. I do believe a winner will be in “pot 2” of the talent for the week. With all eyes on The PGA Championship next week, Will is a player I like to have a little extra focus and get the win.

Tommy Fleetwood 28/1 – 10 places – Boyle Sports

Tommy needs a win on The PGA Tour. The week before a major just feels right. Nothing to statical in that assumption but it’s fair to say again that players above him in the market will be focussing on sharpening up for next week.

I have watched Tommy for many years on the European Tour and recently The PGA Tour. When I last watched him closely was at in the middle east, where his driver was spraying and predominately being lost to the right.

Tommy has excelled in the middle east many years, and those courses are a little firm, long but wide. I am not supporting this with data; however, I feel some of the tournament in Abu Dhabi & the Dubai Dessert Classic, will have some performance-based correlation.  Again, this is from what I have seen rather than being data driven and more my own personal opinion. For what it’s worth.

Potentially more factually, anyone who saw him at The Masters can certainly presume that this has been fixed and the data suggests the same. He has improved off the tee over the last 12 rounds. He actually gains nearly 2 shot in total SG, this was only 0.14 in his previous 36, he is certainly trending.

I was shocked to see Tommy performing so well on the greens and this was the final piece of the puzzle for me (maybe an oversight I wasn’t aware). I did my first TikTok about a month ago and I said after The Masters, I will be tracking Tommy. Let the tracking begin.

Nate Lashley 100/1 – 10 Places – Boyle Sports

Nate is a player that pops up for me time and time again. I am pulling the trigger on him for a number of reasons. The first one is his recent performance in Mexico on a “birdie fest, showed that the birdies he probably needs to make this week is possible. He also has a similar result from Puerto Rico earlier this year where he cam T7.

In the correlated courses he has a T3 and T17 at the WM Phoenix Open (2020 & 2021). He has a T19 at the Tournament of Champions and a recent T11 in Mexico.

Lashley from a statistical point of view, fits well for this course. The only area I did have concerns was driving distance, but I think the course will play shorter than last year due to the run. Statically, length isn’t as much as a fact of Mexico a fortnight ago.

He gains marginally in the approach and gains 0.68 shots putting. Given his form, this shows in Mexico and Puerto Rico, this shows me the long game is good enough to hit the greens. I have the thinking that I can’t risk players that don’t excel in iron play this week. If you are missing these relatively easy greens, then you won’t be placing, fact.

My angle on Nate is the positive trend with the putter. In his last 36 rounds he was losing 0.70 shots whereas now he is gaining. The long game also has improved in that time as well. His Total SG is currently sat at 0.72 in his last 12, where it was -0.46 in the last 36.

The trends are good, the course fits and I think that Nate will be a good price. Obviously the quality of this field compared to a Puerto Rico or Mexico Open is a stark difference. However, Nate can reach the number, and a good price at 10 places or a Top 20 bet is what I will be taking.

Summary of picks

  • Justin Thomas 1u
  • Tommy Fleetwood 0.5u EW
  • Will Zalatoris 0.5u EW
  • Nate Lashley 0.25u EW

I will fire one last bullet as discussed but I am not sure where yet. Awaiting for the Lost fore Words and / or Chasing Pars lads to do their thing.

I hope you enjoyed my Byron Nelson Betting preview. Please feel free to feedback any thoughts and if you wish to follow me, my social buttons are below, they are all @MattTizzardGolf

Good luck this week, see you Thursday on the pod!

Matt

WELLS FARGO BETTING APPROACH by MattTizzardGolf

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

We have a lot happening at Waggle Duff this week. We also have Wells Fargo picks and a betting preview from NelsonsGolfTips here. British Masters betting preview and tips from RH_G0lf here.

If you are looking to play Waggle Duff free fantasy golf and want to submit a team, the link is here!

You can listen to this article in the above Podcast episode, as I break my thought process down. Just search “The Waggle Duff Podcast” on Spotify, Apple or Amazon

Last time out with the coupon

Before we head into the Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview, a quick recap from Mexico.

The Mexico Open, much like the RBC Heritage was a “nearly week”. We turn a small 2u profit on the tournament following a place from Kitayama at 125/1, finishing 1 shot back from winner Jon Rahm. This is the 2nd time I’ve placed with Kitty this year, following his 400/1 place at The Honda Classic.

Long flirted with the places but a poor back 9 on Sunday stopped all proceedings.

This ends what really has been a poor month (-28u) following a hot start to the year. A long way to go and it’s a swingy game we play! I will always be honest with my readers and track all P/L (+14u) on the website. Long-term followers will know I provide the data and my approach in my articles. I believe they will assist in decision making and I hope continue to be entertaining!  

On to this week!

Wells Fargo Championship

After an incredible final round at the 2022 Masters, Rory McIlroy is back to headline the field at the Wells Fargo Championship, played at TPC Potomac, just outside the US capital.

In similar fashion to Jon Rahm at last weeks Mexico Open, Rory will be wanting to stamp some authority on the tour and collect his 21’st win. Rory won’t have the same perceived advantage as Rahm last week, but following “that Masters round”, I am expecting punters to track and back him heavily.

TPC Potomac

Due to the President’s Cup taking centre stage at Quail Hollow, the Wells Fargo Championship has been moved to the north to TPC Potomac, a venue we have seen before on tour.

Therefore, unlike last week, we do have some course data that we can analyse. The PGA Tour came to the venue most recently in 2017 and 2018 for the Quicken Loans National (which was replaced by the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2019).

The course was seen on tour in the 90s and naughtiest but wasn’t much of a favourite of the players. This was due to poor drainage and flooding issues which messed with tournament conditions. With a name like “The Booz Allen Classic”, it’s hard to wonder why it didn’t have much sex appeal.

However, after a face-lift we saw the Quicken Loans National take its place on tour and the course reputation improved. In 2018 Francesco Molinari got the dub and in 2017 Kyle Stanley beat Charles Howell to win in a play-off. It was a week where Stanley won despite having negative stroke gained putting. Something to note for later in the article.

As an Englishman from Buckinghamshire, I love the look of this course. It looks like a Berkshire/ Buckinghamshire type of Parkland course. The fairways twist and turn through tree-lined fairways, towards greens that are slightly elevated and protected by some large Scottish or heathland-style bunkers. In 2017 Justin Thomas said to the media he believed this course could hold a US Open. High praise.

Occasional water does come into play, for example, holes 7, 14 17. Also “Rock Run Creek” snakes its way through 5 of the holes including the drivable par 4 14th which gave players an Eagles opportunity, which was snatched at 15 times in 2018. However, the water does come into play. Something Ricky Fowler knows all too well, having drove into the water here on Sunday in 2017 when in contention.

The course is a par 70 made up of 7,139 yards that 156 players will do battle over the $9m purse. A complete key change from last weeks tournament which did end up a bomber fest, despite my thought’s accuracy, could take charge.

The course features Bentgrass greens, tees and fairways with subtle elevation changes and distinctive Mid-Atlantic and Scottish-style bunkering.

Despite being made of mostly Par4’s (2 par 5’s and 4 par 3’s) there is still plenty of variety for the players to contend with. Early on- the course demands correct placement on the fairway but offers some birdie opportunity

Course Correlated

North-eastern bent grass courses that can correlate are hard to come by. Winged Foot for example and The Congressional next door is a little too longer than the positional play that golfers will face this week. Therefore, looking specifically at course correlation and picking players that like the course design or match statistics that did well here in 2017 & 2018 (to come later in the article) is not going to be a line I base my selections on. I do however think players that played the Quicken Loans, have some advantage from a ball position off the tee perspective.

Weather

According to weather.com it appears that Thursday afternoon and Friday will see some showers and thunderstorms. I know things can change quickly, so will be keeping tabs on the draw and the weather.

Key Stats Analysed

We have some good data from PGATour.com initially where we can analyse the recipe to Molinari’s success. I am a little dubious to look capture Kyle Stanley’s data because the winning score was -7. Which was 14 shots worse the Molinari’s win at -21.

It’s also to note that Molinari’s performance in 2018 was an anomaly. This is because at the time it was one of the best performances in stroke gained since ShotLink data was captured in 2003. He gained 20.5 shots on the field! In total 84% of his total shots gained in that winning week were gained tee-to-green.

However, this does paint somewhat of a picture. TPC Potomac ranks 1st in Driving Accuracy importance. It also ranks 5th in Strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained tee-to green.

In contrast, TPC Potmac ranks 33rd on SG putting. (All data from rickrungood.com).

Let’s take a look at some examples. In 2018 this was the Top 12.(I added Ricky just because)

POSPLAYERScoreR1R2R3R4
1Francesco Molinari-2167656562
2Ryan Armour-1366656868
3Sung Kang-1272646864
T4Abraham Ancer-1165706272
T4Tiger Woods-1170656866
T6Bronson Burgoon-1068706567
T6Beau Hossler-1065667168
T8Brian Gay-967647268
T8Chesson Hadley-971646868
T8Andrew Landry-963726571
T8Ryan Palmer-970676767
12Rickie Fowler-870666967

Firstly, shout out to Tiger. Secondly, 4 of the Top 12 feature inside the top 12 players that gained strokes putting on the week. 9 of those players feature inside the top 12 players that gained strokes tee-to-green and 6 for putting.

Now that isn’t uncommon but for context in Mexico last week, inside the top 12 you would find 6 players that lead the field in strokes gained tee-to-green. This course and tournament feel closer to an RBC Heritage of 2 weeks ago. By this I mean I am leaning towards accurate iron players again, rather than bombers and putters.

Where I am a little surprised from the Quicken Loans in only 2 of these players feature inside the top 12 from 150 – 175 yards (Tiger and Anomilari). I would have thought there would be a higher value placed on short iron play (wedge – 8iron). Also considering that stroke gained in approach ranks 7th in importance at TPC Potomac. I am now looking more within driving accuracy and total strokes gained tee to green.

A note on finding where statically these players are “hanging out” the margin between 10th and 20th is relatively small. However, my purpose is to build a picture of which golfers I believe will perform well and these exercises do often find patterns.

Let’s zoom out a little and simplify. What statistics appear most important at TPC Potomac. Firstly, there are 12 par 4s on the course, so I want to know who is playing them well. Secondly, tee to green and driving accuracy is of the upmost importance. Finally, as we saw with Finau, Woodland last week and a preference of mine is to ensure I am comfortable with their ability to put on the greens if I can.

Stats Analysed

  • Par 4 performance
  • Stroke gained Tee to Green
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Putting from inside 10 feet

Par 4 performance

Taking a look at the Par 4 leaders of 2022, who are playing this week.

TOUR RANKPLAYER NAMEROUNDSSTATUSPAR 4 AVG
T2Matt Kuchar43-323.93
4Cameron Smith36-313.91
6Seamus Power57-293.95
T7Cameron Young49-253.95
9Corey Conners54-243.95
T10Nate Lashley55-233.96
T10Denny McCarthy64-233.96
12Brian Harman50-223.96
T16Russell Henley53-183.97
T20Joel Dahmen57-153.97
26Matt Jones51-123.98
T27Ryan Armour34-113.97
T27Chase Seiffert31-113.96

Stroke gained Tee to Green

A little more of a conventional list of players here and not many surprises. Analysing their last 6 competitive rounds the leader’s tee-to-green are.

STAT RANKPLAYERT2G
1Rory McIlroy1.93
2Gary Woodland1.37
3Corey Conners1.27
4Cameron Young1.27
5Matt Fitzpatrick1.14
6Keith Mitchell1.14
7Mark Hubbard0.99
8Matt Jones0.98
9Keegan Bradley0.97
10Martin Laird0.97
11Matthew NeSmith0.96
12Russel Henley0.95
13Paul Casey0.94

Driving Accuracy

Digging into the most accurate players of 2022 in totality. I am starting to see a few faces pop up again. Brian Harman who is a steady hand on the Par 4’s clearly achieves this by being in position. He isn’t a long hitter, so at 7100 yards, this course isn’t going to overpower him. The same can be said about Joel Dahmen.

TOUR RANKPLAYER NAMEROUNDS%FAIRWAYS HIT
1Ryan Armour3472.9304
2Brian Stuard6971.24639
5Tyler Duncan5169.4449
6Abraham Ancer4569.35387
7Kevin Streelman5869.21553
8Chez Reavie5568.86502
10Jim Herman3968.75352
11Austin Cook4368.72391
13Satoshi Kodaira2468.2223
14Lucas Glover5768.18527
15Hayden Buckley5568.16501
16Brian Harman5068.1442
T18Russell Knox6567.93574
20Vaughn Taylor3367.91292
21Joel Dahmen5767.84500

Putting from inside 10 feet

Before looking at the best putters from 6 feet, I noticed that Matt Kuchar over his last 5 tournaments has gained 0.87 strokes in putting. A recipe that can be cooked up from the data is Matt is super steady on the par 4s (ranking 2nd on tour) but also is the 8th best putter over the last 5 tournaments played. But it’s 2022 and I can’t be betting Kuch? Can I?

After disappointing week last week, Abraham Ancer is another player who is putting well (1.05 strokes gained in the last 5 tournaments). He also is one of the most accurate players in the field.

Sepp Straka and Davis Riley are two of the few players that gain stokes off the tee and dominate with the flat stick. Davis played Mexico last week and this is a big key change in course and climate. I would lean towards Sepp personally.

Finally, Chase Seiffert has been an excellent par 4 player in 2022, ranking 27th. He is also gaining 0.48 shots in strokes gained putting over the last 5 tournaments and rolling the ball well. A potential EW bet as I would hope he has generous odds.

I went from inside 10 feet because out of my T2G specialists I will need some conversion. I won’t be placing too much weight on this statistic, as we have seen good performances can come with a cold wand. See Kyle Stanley for details. Again though, Matt Kuchar appears in 13th position in 2022 and Tyrrell Hatton remains one of the best putters, returning to the field this week.

Picks

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

I am going to commit to 3 today and long list who I will keep tabs on throughout the week. You can see my final picks by following me on Twitter or TikTok or other socials below;

The reason for this is, as I write, the stormy weather and the rain expected late on Thursday. If this changes throughout the week, comes earlier or not at all. This will affect certain sides of the draw. By this I mean those teeing off AM and PM.  This is something that had an effect on the Mexico Open with the wind heavily blowing PM on the Thursday and almost killed Kevin Na!

Rory McIlroy (2u) – 13/2 Boyle Sports

Doesn’t need any introduction but I think The Sunday Masters was a turning point for Rory.  His main competition on paper likely comes from Conners & Fitzpatrick and he must fancy that.

Joel Dahmen (0.75u e/w) –  40/1 Boyle Sports

Finished T12 last time out at the RBC Heritage without making any ground on Sunday. If I am going to trust my process, then Joel & Brian are going to make my line ups. He is one of the most accurate players on tour and performs well on 4s throughout 2022. I dislike his hat, but certainly like his play from the tee.

 I don’t love his price, because you could have picked Joel up much cheaper earlier in the season.

His best tour finish comes from Quail Hollow at this event in 2019 where he had much worse form heading in.

Brian Harman (0.75u e/w) – 45/1 Boyle Sports

Brian made the cut at the RBC Heritage and didn’t play in Mexico. So, I am hoping he is fully rested and ready to battle. He has some good performances this year, playing well at The Valspar Championship (5th) and The American Express (3rd).

This course is built for steady Brian, and the lefty can plot his way through the trees and around the bunkers. I definitely want players that keep the ball straight and Brian is the 16th straightest on tour this year.

He gains marginally with the putter and off the tee, so I like this combination with this course. I suspect he will be heavily backed this week, so I will commit and try to fire in early for a good price.

PLAYERS I WILL CONSIDER (likely to pick 2, perhaps 3, closers to Thursday)

  • Tony Finau (only player from Mexico considering)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Sepp Straka
  • Russell Henley
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Joel Dahmen
  • Chase Seiffert
  • Matt Wallace
  • Charl Schwartzel

I hope you enjoyed my thought process ahead of the Wells Fargo Championship. Always happy to have a discussion on Twitter if you wanted to reach out.

You can also find further betting previews from NelsonsGolfTips and RH_Golf here.

Good luck with your plays, and I look forward to seeing you soon on The Waggle Duff Podcast.

The British Masters Preview & Tips

The British Masters Preview & Tips by @RH_G0LF, follow on the links below

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

After a stunning week at PGA Catalunya where Adri Arenas finally became a DP World tour winner it’s time to move to the UK & the Midlands for the British Masters. Firstly, a quick recap on last week on tour, not much luck for me with Howie not starting setting me up for a bad week. Just Haotong Li making the cut & he never got going after a good first round. Adri Arnaus beating Oliver Bekker on the 6th hole of the playoff at a pre-event price of 40-1.

Onto this week & it’s the return of the British Masters at the Belfry for the 2nd year running. The Brabazon course will take centre stage being the showcase course the Belfry has to offer. It has hosted the Ryder cup four times in 1985,89,93 & 2002 & also various stroke play events throughout the years most recently in 2020 with the ISPS Handa UK Championship which Rasmus Hojgaard won. Richard Bland will defend after the fairy-tale of last year winning in the playoff against Guido Migliozzi for his 1st DP World Tour victory & fittingly, he will make his 500th start this week. 156 Players will compete for a £1.85 million purse & 3500 DP world points which is more than the usual 2000 or 2750 that are available at non Major,WGC & Rolex events.

Course

This week is one of the only courses on tour I’ve actually played before. A stunning & hard test of golf especially when the pins get tucked around the bunkers & on the blind spots over mounds. I walked the course 3 weeks ago for the Robert Rock Junior Masters as Caddy & the course was in fantastic shape then. I played parallel to a few holes on the Brabazon on Friday when I teed it up on the Derby course & it looks stunning. The course as expected looks tournament ready with tightly cut fairways, lush rough & from watching a few players on the 2nd the green they are quick. The course measures 7328 yards & will play as a par 72 made up of three par 3s measuring between 177 & 226, twelve par 4s measuring between 319 & 497yards & three par 5s measuring between 538 & 566 yards. Nine of the holes have water in play so plenty of places to rack up some big numbers but also plenty of risk & reward opportunities especially the Par 5 3rd & of course the Iconic 10th hole, who will have the onions to go for it off the tee & who will play it safe with a layup. Along with the water there are 72 bunkers to stay out of & plenty of tree lined fairways. A truly great test of golf.

The weather forecast is set to be fairly warm by British standards averaging out at 17degrees for the 4 days. Players will want to get a good score in on the Thursday as Friday looks to be the worst day weather wise with rain showers forecast throughout the day. The rest of the week looks to be almost ideal playing conditions with high teen temperatures & relatively low winds never getting above 10mph.

Previous British Masters Course Winners & Stats

2021 Richard Bland -13 Winner in a Playoff 140-1

Driving accuracy 1st

SG – Off the Tee 31st

Green in Regulation 3rd

SG – Approach to Green 3rd

SG – Tee to Green 1st

SG – Around the green 61st

SG – Putting 87th

2020 – Rasmus Hojgaard -14 14-1

No Stats available.

If you enjoy this week’s betting podcast from Waggle Duff, please may I ask for a good review and maybe some 5 stars!

RH_G0LF Selections for The British Masters

Adrian Meronk 30-1 Boylesport 8 Places

Adrian comes into this week in fine form with five top 8 finishes in ten starts with no miss cuts in this period apart from a withdrawal in Abu Dhabi. He has had back-to-back 3rd place finishes at the Qatar masters & Catalunya championship, so I fully expect him to go well again this week at a venue where he finished 3rd last year. Last week he ranked 1st in bogey avoidance with just 1.5 average a round which will be key this week to keeping a good score. He was also ranked 3rd & 4th for par 3 & 4 scoring on the week & was under par for the par 5s. The 28-year-old approach game was also statistically in a great place, he was 19th SG approach to green & 7th SG tee to green, even the putting stats were all in the top part of the field (20th SG putting) He will be desperate to get his 1st win on the DP World tour before Turing 29 at the end of the month, it would be a great early birthday present to himself to get the job done this week.

Danny Willet 40-1 Boylesports 8 Places

The 2016 Masters Champion & host this week will be looking to maintain his form he has picked up in recent weeks, a top 12 at the Masters a few weeks ago showed his game is in a good place. Hosts don’t normally do well this week because of having much more to do in the week than just golf with all the additional media duties, however last year showed that didn’t affect Willet when he finished 11th. He has played predominantly on the PGA TOUR this year without much success but has only missed one cut so picking up the cheques each week. His best finish this year was his 12th place finish at the masters. His remaining PGA TOUR finishes average out at around 43rd place. This week I’m hoping he can rely on previous experience as he did & Augusta to put in solid performance for the week.

Haotong Li  60-1 Boylesports 8 Places

Value play 60-1 Betfred 10 Places

Going with Haotong again this week. He was my only selection to make the cut last week finishing 26th. Li has played here twice before finishing 31st in 2020 & MC last year but we all know about his struggles last season. Last week’s stats show his game is looking much improved to last year, he was 13th SG off the tee, 24th greens in regulation with 72% & 36th SG putting. If he can put everything together for four rounds, I feel he has a great chance of going well this week. Li is still winless since 2018 but three top 10s & only two missed cuts in 9 starts certainly show his performances are improving & will only inject confidence into his game.

Richard Mansell 100- Boylesports 8 Places

Value play 100-1 Betfred 10 Places

Richard ranked 1st for SG off the tee last week with his incredible driving distance averaging 336 but only hitting 48% of fairways, however he wasn’t that far off target as he ranked 1st for Green in regulation with 80.55% so he wasn’t really in much trouble after his tee shots. With his power he can take advantage of quite a few holes this week but considerably shortening holes compared to others who average 50 yards less than him off the tee. Mansell finished 57th last year after to great opening rounds of 69 & 71 but came unstuck at the weekend shooting 73 & 75. In the year since then he has won on the minor tour in the States & has gone through wrist surgery. In his two latest starts he has finished 30th & 26th so plenty of positives to take into this week for him.

Odds correct as of 12:15 Monday 2nd May

Good Luck RH_G0LF

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview & Tips by NelsonsGolfTips

WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PREVIEW by @NelsonsGolfTips

Waggle Duff is an affiliate of Boyle Sports and will continue to bring you exclusive offers. Use the link above for £20 of free bets. *New customers only. DM me on Twitter if you have any questions

WELLS FARGO – THE COURSE – TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

We now head to a venue that hasn’t been seen for some time, the last tournament played here was the 2018 Quickens Loans in which Francesco Molinari prevailed by eight shots.

 There have been many PGA tournaments played here, two Quicken Loans and many more played in different guises.

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is a par 70, 7,107 yards, it’s located in Maryland, a suburb northwest of Washington, DC.

The course was designed in 1986 by Ed Ault, Tom Clark & Ed Sneed and re-designed in 2007 by Stephen Wenzloff & Jim Hardy.

Some feature holes were renovated, the sixth hole was a poor copy of the 13th at Augusta and was changed to a long par 4. The par 3 ninth famously suggested to be blown up by no other than Greg Norman was rebuilt up a hill, near old practice green.

The 10th and 11th holes have been combined to into a new tenth, a long par five playing around the restored creek feature. There are four par 3s and only 2 par 5s, with the rest par4s, the longest hole is the 2nd avg 619 par 5. The course is tree-lined with several holes with water coming into play, and at least two doglegs.

The greens and fairways are both Bentgrass, the course record is 62.

 

HISTORY

PAST TEN WINNERS

2021 Mcllroy –274

2020 Cancelled

2019 Homa –269

2018 Day – 272

2017 Harman – 278

2016 Hahn- 279

2015 Mcllroy – 267

2014 Holmes- 274

2013 Ernst – 280

2012 Fowler- 274

2011 Glover – 273

The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 under the name of the Wachovia Championship, and Quail Hollow in 2009-2010. This year were playing a new venue for the Wells Fargo Championship, TPC Potomac, there have been many tournaments played here.

ANGLE

This course was a regular stop on the PGA Tour as the host of the Boozy Allen Classic (originally Kemper Open).

Looking back through the past winners, its apparent that you don’t have to be a big hitter to win, but what you do need is strong iron play and accuracy off the tee.

 When Molinari won here in 2018 he won with stats of 1st SGAPP +2.60 1st SGT2G +4.33 AND +2.60 total, in round 4 he gained +5.80 SGT2G.

Stanley gained in similar style with 4th SGAPP +1.71 1st SGOTT +1.46 and 1st SGT2G +3.40, +3.12 total.

So, I don’t want to state the obvious but I will be definitely siding with the stats that are on show.

If you enjoy the show this week, please be sure to give us a good rating and review 🙂

WELLS FARGO – TIPS & PICKS

CONNERS 16/1 3PTS EW –10pls boyle sp

Corey hasn’t been seen since the heritage where he was 18th, he also posted a good number at the Masters where he T12th.

This course should suit his game, with his straight driving and his pin point irons, it sets up for a good weekend, and hopefully his first Wells Fargo.

Conners has had four top ten at the Masters, which has the same greens- bent grass, it might seem insignificant, but if you can putt good at Augusta then the flat stick is no problem. His last five round reads as Heritage T12-Masters T6th- Texas T35- WGC 3rd – Players T26th.

His stats show as, YTD SGT2G 13th –SGOTT 6th –SGAPP 33rd – SGARG  T105th- GSPUTT T105th, and at the heritage where he last played SGAPP 13th SGT2G 18th.

Think the stats are impressive enough to win this twinned with his like for Bent grass.

 TONY FINAU 16/1 2PTS EW BOYLE SPORTS

Big Tony just missed out on by two shots after a cracking 63 in the last round at the Mexico Open.

Tony has made a steady start to the year, but looking at the stats his driving accuracy has been letting him down, this week he was 1st in SGAPP and 2nd in SGT2G. There are many positives to take out of his recent performances and he’s looking like the old tony we know and love.

His last five tournaments read as Mexico T2 – Heritage T12- Masters T35- Players T26- Texas T29

MARK LEISHMAN 25/1  2PT EW BOYLE SP

Mark Leishman has been quiet for too long, but of late. Hes showing signs of the old Aussie.

Mark is still in the world top 50; he hasn’t won on the PGA since 2020 where he won at the farmers. The Farmers has bent grass the same greens Potomac which could be significant also Augusta has the same where Leishman has had some success.

Leishman stats for the year so far stand as 3 top 20s with him recently T30 at the masters and T35 at the WGC.

His stats SGT2G are 46th and SGAPP 46th this year but the reason I’m hedging my bets on him is that he has good course form 2018 T13- 2017 T5th.

SEPP STRAKA 45/1 1PT EW BOYLE SPORTS

Sepp has made an amazing start and transformation in his game this year, after his maiden win at the Honda Classic, he snatched victory from Lowry on the eighteenth with a birdie.

His performances this year have been great, only missing one cut, and he has three top ten, Hes now moved into 53rd in the world, jumping 145 places.

His numbers are probably not where I want them, but as iterated earlier I think SGT2T and SGAPP are important this year, his numbers read SGT2G 105TH –SGAPP 119th but at the heritage when he last played, he was 6th and 33rd respectively.

As shown in recent tournaments double winner in a calendar year is common now.

KEGAN BRADLEY 30/1 1PT EW BOYLE SP

Kegan is showing signs of the man who won the PGA Championship in 2011, it’s been a while since he won, four years to be exact.

He has posted some solid numbers this year, with four top 20s and only one missed cut, Kegan has won on Bent grass before so that’s a plus.

His last five tournaments read as Texas T8th- WGCT-T35- Valspar MC- Player’s 5th – API T11.

His stats this year are 24th SGAPP and 10th SGT2G, Kegan has shown a liking to this course T5th in 2017, a definite plus for me.

KANG 90/1 0.5PTS EW BOYLE SP

We’re taking a leap of faith this year with Kang, prior to his T51st at the Mexico Open he had four missed cuts, but still has two top 20s this year.

Kang has taken a liking to the TPC Potomac with him 3rd in 2017 and T5th in 2018, Hes also won at the Byron Nelson which also has Bent grass.

The stats from the Mexico Open show he was 17th SGAPP and 28th SGT2G, so there you have it, I’m definitely taking a punt with him.

Good Luck everybody and if you wanted to play Waggle Duff this week, we need a British Masters team, which you can enter for free here!

Receive the latest Golf Tips, Fantasy Golf updates & Golf Stats direct to your inbox. You will only receive tips and fantasy golf information from Waggle Duff and your data will not be shared.

Join 57 other subscribers