PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2022 PREVIEW & PICKS by @NelsonsGolfTips

By @NelsonsGolfTips

Southern Hills Country Club

The 104th PGA Championship and the Wanamaker trophy will return to Southern Hills Country Club; this is the only club to host four PGA Championships and now five.

The last time it hosted was when the great Tiger Woods won by beating Woody Austin by two shots, let’s hope we see the master back where he belongs.

As you would expect the field assembled is a stellar one.

The market is a three-way heading with new world number one Scheffler, Rahm and Mcllroy with Thomas, Morikawa and Johnson close by.

COURSE

Southern Hills Country Club is located in Tulsa, the Championship course, it’s a par 71 featuring three par 5s and four par 3s measuring 7481 yards.

This course was designed in 1936 by Perry Maxwell and renovated in 2019 by Gil Hanse.

Seven major championships for men have been hosted here, four PGA Championships (1970, 1982, 1994, 2007) and three U.S. Open (1958, 1977, 2001). It’s also hosted the first-ever U.S. Womens mid-Amateur in 1987, and 2021 senior PGA Championship.

The greens were all redone with Pure Distinction bentgrasss, underground drainage pipes were all brought to the surface to create a creek system running throughout the golf course.

Cozby the director of golf at Southern Hills says Hanse’s restoration work has made the course more aesthetically pleasing, while probably also making it a bit more difficult.

Listening to Hanse talk about the renovation and regeneration was so insightful, he talks about how he wanted to strip the course back to its former glory,

He goes on to explain that Hes opened up the fairways and returned the edges to the greens creating run offs so any errant wedge shot will be punished. 

10th Hole

Hanse has gone on to say, the changes are evident on many holes on the course, but they stick out most clearly on nos,10,17 and 18, holes that will play a pivotal role in determining the 2022 PGA Championship.

The first hole is a very challenging opening hole. It’s long (451 yards) and the green complex runs away from you. It’s a good hole to hit the centre of the green and walk off with a par.

The 200-yard par-3 sixth hole was a thorn in the side of many a player in 2007, Angel Cabrera ruined his chances by shooting a 10.

Hanse has moved the seventh green back 40-50 yards, The fairway slopes from left to right with the creek coming into play more now on the right side, making it even more important to hit the green.

The par four 15th– 417 yards, is noted to play as one of the top five most difficult holes in a major Championship. 

I’m confident in saying that this will be an awesome venue, that has made a change for the better and will be remembered for an amazing Championship.

HISTORY

PAST TEN WINNERS

2011 Bradley 272

2012 Mcllroy 275

2013 Dufner 270

2014 Mcllroy 268

2015 Day 268

2016 Walker 266

2017 Thomas 276

2018 Keopka 264

2019 Keopka 272 

2020 Morikawa 267

2021 Mickleson 282

Last year’s event was won by Phil Mickelson won’t be defended this year, which is such a shame.

WEATHER

The weather this week should be ok with winds expected to be as high as 10-20 mph, there maybe a few stray showers on the Saturday, and highs of 74. The weather shouldn’t affect the outcome of the Championship.

ANGLE IN

So, looking through what little stats we have, there are some small tit bits, looking through past winners we have Goosen winning here and at Shinnecock hills in 2004, and Floyd winning at both venues, we also have Pavin second here and winning at Shinnecock.

After listening to Hanse its apparent this is going to be a second shot competition with accuracy off the tee and GIR an essential, we will be looking for someone who can navigate round the course and has a solid scrambling game.

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PICKS

BROOKS KOEPKA  33/1 3PTS EW BOYLE 11PLS 1/5 ODDS

This man needs no introduction to the PGA Championship Hes a twice winner of the Wanamaker trophy and two time us open, champion, he also has 8 PGA Tour wins to his name.

Brooks has been struggling of late with his what with his injured wrist, then his both knees had to be sorted, he couldn’t even bend down to read a putt.

Koepka is quoted as saying, I’m playing fine so fine is where I’m at, in short battered Brooks is gone, Brooks the destroyer of the world, is back. Adjust your bets accordingly.

His recent form reads MC-T5-T12-MC-T16-MC-T2, and his stats are SGT2G 108TH-SGOTT 70TH-SGAPR T110TH- GIR 131ST– SGARG 156TH– SGPUTT T76TH.

As you can see the stats are not great but this is no ordinary person, this is a major winning machine that smell glory again.

CAMERON SMITH 18/1 3PTS EW BOYLE 11PLS 1/5 ODDS

We couldn’t leave such a good player out who has this year, and has been consistently there, Hes won twice already, with a wind at the 5th Major the Players Championship and 1st at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Cameron has had a couple of missed cuts along the way, but both only by two shots, so that can be excused, his last outing was in the doubles format, the Zurich classic where he T21 with his partner Leishman.

His results this year read, T21-MC-T3-1ST-T37-T4-1st-MC, his stats on the course are, SGOTT 143RD– SGT2G 28TH-SGAPR 6TH-GIR 6TH SGARG T37TH-SGPUTT 4TH.

Cameron is one or if not the best iron player on the tour, and with the open wide fairways its essential to have a good iron player, he also never gets flustered and we defiantly need a calm head in a Major Championship, I’m hoping to see that mullet bouncing down the 18th fairway with a smile on his face.

VICTOR HOVLAND 20/1 3PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

The smiling assassin is ready and for me going to take one of his many majors in waiting, his quest so for a major has yielded little luck, his best finish was T12th at the US Open in 2019 and T12th at the Open Championship.

Victor has already won three times on the PGA Tour with him winning the Mayakoba Classic twice and the Hero world championship, Hes already won once this year in Dubai.

There has only just been one MC this year and four top ten, Victor is on top of his game with him up to world number 6, his iron play is second to none and he will be contending come Sunday.

His stats this year read as, SGOTT 12th- SGT2G 37th -SGAPR 3rd – GIR 17th- SGARG 210th- SGPUTT 50th. As you can see Victor is still weak around the greens but every week, he grows stronger and better.

Have trust in seeing that big smile come Sunday and lift his first major.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 28/1- 2PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE 1/5 ODDS

The enigmatic Hideki is going for his second major after capturing the fairy tale Masters last year, which will not be forgotten for some time in Japan.

Matsu has made a solid start to the year, he started where he left off last year, and won at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Hes only played eight events this year, not sure why but I do know Hes competed well.

His form this year has yielded one win, four top 20s and a WD, he defended his Masters with a creditable T14th, he also has some good form in past majors, T2 US Open 2017- T4- 2016 PGA Championship- T6- 2013 Open Championship.

Hideki’s stats this year read as SGOTT 62nd -SGT2G 13th-SGAPR 12th– GIR 12th– SGARG 49TH – SGPUTT 154th.

The stats speak for themselves, and for Hideki to win this then he needs a good week with the putter, when he won the Sony, he gained 1.82 with the flat stick so it can be done. 

Matsuyama has the all-round game to become the PGA Champion, his approach play is a sight to behold, so let’s get on him and make some money.

MATT FITZPATRICK 33/1 2PTS EW BOYLE

So far, his first PGA Tour victory has eluded Matt, Hes come close on a few occasions recently, Hes had five top ten so far this season, with a T2 at Wells Fargo the most recent. 

He gained +1.19 OTT and +3.20 in total at Potomac and was probably undone by the torrential rain 

Fitzpatrick has seven DPWT victories to his name, with his last coming in the Abu Dhabi Championships in Dubai.

Matt has the guile off the tee, and will help him to get around this course, Hes’s 6th in SGT2G and 15th SGOTT, and as you can see, he 24th SGAPR which will be vitally important in this tournament.

Matt is also third in scrambling this year and with the rough around the creeks and greens, it could prove invaluable. 

TOMMY FLEETWOOD 66/1 0.5PTS EW 11PLS BOYLE

I’m adding another Brit to my selections, world number 43 has been ultra-consistent this year without getting his head in front, his approach stats all year have been solid, only at the Honda has he not gained on the field.

In all recent Majors Hes always been there about without winning, which shows he has the mentality for it, Hes come close a few times with a 2nd and 4th in the US Open and 2nd in the Open championship.

His results this year are, MC- T10TH- T14TH- T35TH – T16TH –T22ND –T20TH –MC –T8TH –T12TH. As you can see three top ten and 6th top 20s.

His numbers this year read as SGOTT 92ND – SGT2G 52ND– SGAPR 133RD – GIR 178TH –SGARG 4TH – SGPUTT 8TH.

Although his numbers don’t read as you would want, tommy hasn’t got so many top ten without playing well, and Hes only one good round away from his first PGA win.

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview & Tips by NelsonsGolfTips

WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PREVIEW by @NelsonsGolfTips

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WELLS FARGO – THE COURSE – TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

We now head to a venue that hasn’t been seen for some time, the last tournament played here was the 2018 Quickens Loans in which Francesco Molinari prevailed by eight shots.

 There have been many PGA tournaments played here, two Quicken Loans and many more played in different guises.

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is a par 70, 7,107 yards, it’s located in Maryland, a suburb northwest of Washington, DC.

The course was designed in 1986 by Ed Ault, Tom Clark & Ed Sneed and re-designed in 2007 by Stephen Wenzloff & Jim Hardy.

Some feature holes were renovated, the sixth hole was a poor copy of the 13th at Augusta and was changed to a long par 4. The par 3 ninth famously suggested to be blown up by no other than Greg Norman was rebuilt up a hill, near old practice green.

The 10th and 11th holes have been combined to into a new tenth, a long par five playing around the restored creek feature. There are four par 3s and only 2 par 5s, with the rest par4s, the longest hole is the 2nd avg 619 par 5. The course is tree-lined with several holes with water coming into play, and at least two doglegs.

The greens and fairways are both Bentgrass, the course record is 62.

 

HISTORY

PAST TEN WINNERS

2021 Mcllroy –274

2020 Cancelled

2019 Homa –269

2018 Day – 272

2017 Harman – 278

2016 Hahn- 279

2015 Mcllroy – 267

2014 Holmes- 274

2013 Ernst – 280

2012 Fowler- 274

2011 Glover – 273

The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 under the name of the Wachovia Championship, and Quail Hollow in 2009-2010. This year were playing a new venue for the Wells Fargo Championship, TPC Potomac, there have been many tournaments played here.

ANGLE

This course was a regular stop on the PGA Tour as the host of the Boozy Allen Classic (originally Kemper Open).

Looking back through the past winners, its apparent that you don’t have to be a big hitter to win, but what you do need is strong iron play and accuracy off the tee.

 When Molinari won here in 2018 he won with stats of 1st SGAPP +2.60 1st SGT2G +4.33 AND +2.60 total, in round 4 he gained +5.80 SGT2G.

Stanley gained in similar style with 4th SGAPP +1.71 1st SGOTT +1.46 and 1st SGT2G +3.40, +3.12 total.

So, I don’t want to state the obvious but I will be definitely siding with the stats that are on show.

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WELLS FARGO – TIPS & PICKS

CONNERS 16/1 3PTS EW –10pls boyle sp

Corey hasn’t been seen since the heritage where he was 18th, he also posted a good number at the Masters where he T12th.

This course should suit his game, with his straight driving and his pin point irons, it sets up for a good weekend, and hopefully his first Wells Fargo.

Conners has had four top ten at the Masters, which has the same greens- bent grass, it might seem insignificant, but if you can putt good at Augusta then the flat stick is no problem. His last five round reads as Heritage T12-Masters T6th- Texas T35- WGC 3rd – Players T26th.

His stats show as, YTD SGT2G 13th –SGOTT 6th –SGAPP 33rd – SGARG  T105th- GSPUTT T105th, and at the heritage where he last played SGAPP 13th SGT2G 18th.

Think the stats are impressive enough to win this twinned with his like for Bent grass.

 TONY FINAU 16/1 2PTS EW BOYLE SPORTS

Big Tony just missed out on by two shots after a cracking 63 in the last round at the Mexico Open.

Tony has made a steady start to the year, but looking at the stats his driving accuracy has been letting him down, this week he was 1st in SGAPP and 2nd in SGT2G. There are many positives to take out of his recent performances and he’s looking like the old tony we know and love.

His last five tournaments read as Mexico T2 – Heritage T12- Masters T35- Players T26- Texas T29

MARK LEISHMAN 25/1  2PT EW BOYLE SP

Mark Leishman has been quiet for too long, but of late. Hes showing signs of the old Aussie.

Mark is still in the world top 50; he hasn’t won on the PGA since 2020 where he won at the farmers. The Farmers has bent grass the same greens Potomac which could be significant also Augusta has the same where Leishman has had some success.

Leishman stats for the year so far stand as 3 top 20s with him recently T30 at the masters and T35 at the WGC.

His stats SGT2G are 46th and SGAPP 46th this year but the reason I’m hedging my bets on him is that he has good course form 2018 T13- 2017 T5th.

SEPP STRAKA 45/1 1PT EW BOYLE SPORTS

Sepp has made an amazing start and transformation in his game this year, after his maiden win at the Honda Classic, he snatched victory from Lowry on the eighteenth with a birdie.

His performances this year have been great, only missing one cut, and he has three top ten, Hes now moved into 53rd in the world, jumping 145 places.

His numbers are probably not where I want them, but as iterated earlier I think SGT2T and SGAPP are important this year, his numbers read SGT2G 105TH –SGAPP 119th but at the heritage when he last played, he was 6th and 33rd respectively.

As shown in recent tournaments double winner in a calendar year is common now.

KEGAN BRADLEY 30/1 1PT EW BOYLE SP

Kegan is showing signs of the man who won the PGA Championship in 2011, it’s been a while since he won, four years to be exact.

He has posted some solid numbers this year, with four top 20s and only one missed cut, Kegan has won on Bent grass before so that’s a plus.

His last five tournaments read as Texas T8th- WGCT-T35- Valspar MC- Player’s 5th – API T11.

His stats this year are 24th SGAPP and 10th SGT2G, Kegan has shown a liking to this course T5th in 2017, a definite plus for me.

KANG 90/1 0.5PTS EW BOYLE SP

We’re taking a leap of faith this year with Kang, prior to his T51st at the Mexico Open he had four missed cuts, but still has two top 20s this year.

Kang has taken a liking to the TPC Potomac with him 3rd in 2017 and T5th in 2018, Hes also won at the Byron Nelson which also has Bent grass.

The stats from the Mexico Open show he was 17th SGAPP and 28th SGT2G, so there you have it, I’m definitely taking a punt with him.

Good Luck everybody and if you wanted to play Waggle Duff this week, we need a British Masters team, which you can enter for free here!

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2022 ZURICH CLASSIC OF ORLEANS BETTING PREVIEW & TIPS

by @NelsonsGolfTips

Waggle Duff fantasy league is back this week, so watch out tomorrow for entries re-opening. Before you do submit your team, be sure to read this betting preview by NelsonsGolfTips on the 2022 ZURICH CLASSIC OF ORLEANS.

After a mad two weeks with the Masters and the Heritage where golfer Jordan Spieth won on the second Easter Sunday in a row. We now head over to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic, in its doubles format. It was changed in 2017 from singles to a doubles format, in 2016 there was just 23 players of the world’s top 100 in the line-up and in 2017 there were 24 players in the top 50 lining up. So thumbs up from the players for the new format.

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ZURICH CLASSIC – THE COURSE – TPC Louisiana

TPC Louisiana is located in the south west of New Orleans, it was designed by the renowned Pete Dye in consultation with Steve Elkington and Kelly Gibson, it’s a par 72 measuring just over 7400 yards. The course made it’s debut in the event in 2005 but just a year later the tournament returned to its old venue, English Turn, after Hurricane Katrina devastated this venue. The event returned in 2007 and it’s been here ever since.

The greens are Bermuda grass over seeded with Poa Trivialis and the fairway’s Bermuda grass.

FORMAT

The 72- hole stroke play tournament features four-ball (best ball) during the first and third rounds and foursomes (alternative shot) during the second and third rounds.

The starting field consists of 80 teams (160 players) with the low 33 teams and ties after 36 holes make the cut.

HISTORY

The first edition was won by Cameron Smith and Jonas Blixt in 2017, beating Kevin Kisner and Scott Brown in a play-off, whilst last year’s edition was won by Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith with a score of 268, the only other two events was won by Horschel-Piercy in 2018 and Rahm- Palmer in 2019.

ANGLES IN

So with little data to go off I had to dig deep and found what I think are some good little nuggets. Looking at the stats the tournament played or the week before the Zurich the winners had either good stats in  SG Putting or  SG TTG.

The week before Blixt won in 2017 he T44 and ranked 1st in putting with 2.43 shots gained and Smith T29th and was T28th in SGTTG. Smith again won in 2021 and the week before he T9th at Harbour Town and was 15th with SGTTG gaining 1.43, and Leishman T5th at the masters. He was 6Th in SGTTG gaining 2.04 on the field.

Horschel in 2018 was T5th at the Heritage and was 4th in SGPUTT gaining 2.04 on the field and Piercy was T16. Piercy was 15th in SGTTG gaining 1.69, we also have some correlating courses with this being a Pete Dye course. Austin country springs to mind with players playing well at both courses, you only have to look at the stats to see the likes of Billy Horschel. Who has won at both courses, and players that played well at Harbour Town have gone on to play well at the Zurich.

GOLF TIPS & PICKS

HOVLAND &MORIKAWA 7/1- 3PTS WIN-8PLS

My main pick is the favourites, not a surprise but world number 2&5 respectively are not to be sniffed at. Collin has had a slow start to the year but is showing signs of the old Collin, his recent form is good he T5 at the Masters and T9th at the Match play. He finished with a 68 at the Heritage but only finished T26 but he was 8th in SGTTG, gaining 1.907 on the field. Victor had a week off and was only T27th at the masters but was 10th in SGPUTT, these young guys will just enjoy every moment and will be smiling all the way to the winner’s circle.

GARCIA & FLEETWOOD 16/1-3PTS EW 8PLS

The European duo of Tommy and Sergio are here for another crack at winning this event after finishing second in 2019. They missed the event in 2021, this year both players have been steady without winning, Tommy has had five top 30s this year, with three top 20s. His effort at Harbor Town was by no mean feat with a 64 mid round, he ranked first in putting gaining 2.10 on the field. Sergio had last week off, after a half decent Masters where he was 3rd SGAPR and 17th SGTTG, which puts them both in a good position to give a good account of themselves.

NIEMANN & PEREIRA 25/1- 8PLS

The Chilean due will be very popular this week after some really good tournaments, Niemann is up to world number 16 after gaining his second win on the PGA tour, he has two top 10s and some solid rounds to his name, don’t think he would have been far away this week if he hadn’t shot 72 in the second round, he was 21st in SGTTG, with Mito 11th gaining 1.571 on the field, Mito is slowly gaining a reputation of being a solid iron player and shown some good form coming into this, with a 13th at the Valero Texas Open and a T27th at the Valspar, it won’t be long before this guy gets his maiden tour win.

ZALATORIS & RILEY 33/1 – 8PLS

 The only place to start with Will is his putting, believe it or not he ranked 6th in SGPUTT in his last tournament the Masters gaining 1.40 shots on the field and 3.15 in total. I’m sure will has used this week off to spend time with his putting coach Stephen Sweeney. It seems like a lot of hard work has gone into his putting with tension and nerves show up in his legs. They have worked on ways to relieve the tension, so make no mistake this guy will undoubtedly win multiple times once his maiden win is out the way.

Wills partner is Davis Riley has been giving a good account of himself on the PGA tour. Unfortunately he missed the cut at Harbour Town, but at the Valspar he finished 2nd just missing out on his maiden win by losing in a play-off to Sam Burns.

LAIRD & MACINTYRE 66/1- 0.5PTS EW 8PLS PP

The Scottish duo are going to be an interesting pairing with hopefully Laird will be guiding the youngster to his first win in the States. Macintyre produced a cracking T23 in the master, not bad for a Scottish youngster, he finished off with a 69 and finished 15th in SGPUTT, he’s had three top 20s this year and has shown some strong form. He has the potential to be a Ryder cup player for years to come. Martin however has been on the tour for many a year, he gained his first PGA win in 2009 at the Shriners in which he won again in 2020 which was his last win.

His recent form has been up and down. His last outing, he finished T29th at the Valero Texas open where he finished 5th SGOTT and 19th SGTTG which gives us a hope that they can both combine to put a good show for our money.

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THE MASTERS 2022 TIPS & BETTING PREVIEW by @NelsonsGolfTips

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Thursday 7th April – @NelsonsGolfTips.

Following the Valero Texas Open where Adam Hadwin placed, we move onto what for me is the best major of the year The Masters. This will be the 86th edition and the first major of the year, I cant wait to see the Azaleas in full spring bloom

The fun that is the par 3 contest is always a good watch, no player has ever gone on to win the Masters after winning it. It will be interesting to see what Matsuyama has in store for his champions dinner, lets’s hope his bad back holds out and he’s able to defend his title.

The betting market is very congested at the top. With former world number 1 Rahm heading it up. You then have three players; Morikawa, Spieth, and Thomas on 12/1. There has been plenty of support in the market also for the new world number one Scottie Scheffler following his third win of the year at the WGC, he has been in sensational form.

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COURSE

Augusta National is a par 72 and officially plays 7475 yards.

The course was designed by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones, it was opened in 1932. Augusta hed the first Masters in 1934. The course went under construction for a redesign in 2008 there are two-course record-holders which are Greg Norman and Nick Price with 63.

The greens are Bentgrass and the Fairways are Ryegrass, the greens normally run as fast as 15 on the stimpmeter with them slowing down in the evening when the sunsets.

It has to be said that the key to success at Augusta is playing the par 5’s well and then playing solid on the par 4’s, you need to have good ball-striking to put the ball in the right positions on the green if not it will be near impossible to get up and down.

AMEN CORNER

11TH HOLE (WHITE DOGWOOD) PAR-4 505 YARDS

Ahmen corner, the masters golf tips betting preview

The 11th tee is the first of two blind drives on Amen corner, its the narrowest of drives that would make any mans heart pump faster. The fairway cambers from right to left so a slight fade off the tee is in order, flattening as you move around the corner. If you hit your ball left or right into the trees a pitch out is likely and it will leave a tricky up and down with the green so slick and the water waiting on the left.

12TH HOLE (GOLDEN BELL) PAR -3 155 YARDS

The 12th hole is one of the most iconic and famous holes in golf. The green is narrow, with a bunker long and short of it. Short shots are in danger of going into Raes creek that you can see in the image above. The usual pin placement at the Masters is tucked right of the green, it’s a scary approach for the pros, (just ask Jordan Spieth).

13TH HOLE ( AZALEA) PAR 5- 510 YARDS

Ahmen corner, the masters golf tips betting preview

The closing hole of Amen corner is the short par 5, players tee off behind Raes creek on the previous hole. The fairway doglegs from right to left with Raes creek running parallel to the left rough. The green is surrounded by four large bunkers, with the creek running virtually across most of the green from leaf to right. It’s said to be a good birdie chance, but if you hook your drive then par is a good outcome.

LAST TEN WINNERS

2021 HIDEKI MATSUYAMA -10

2020 DUSTIN JOHNSON -20

2019 TIGER WOODS -13

2018 PATRICK REED -15

2017 SERGIO GARCIA -3

2016 DANNY WILLETT -5

2015 JORDAN SPIETH -18

2014 BUBBA WATSON -8

2013 ADAM SCOTT -9

2012 BUBBA WATSON -10

2011 CHARL SCHWARTZL -14

So going through the historic stats the players at the top of the market have a poor record here, it tends to be the pack just under the leaders who prevail here. We have some interesting facts thanks to one of my friends on twitter.

  • Nine of the past ten winners were in their 20-30s
  • Eight of the last ten winners were ranked in the world top 20.
  • Eight of the last ten winners played at least three Masters.
  • Seven of the last ten winners posted a previous top ten.
  • A look at the last ten winners shows that all ten had finished in the top 30 in at least one of their two starts before Augusta.
  • Nine of the last ten winners had posted a top six in a major in one of the previous two seasons.

So after putting all thoes stats together we get oursleves a good short, list but its your choice to use the information. My take on it is its a great tool and concept to help you decide who you want to back or place into your Waggle Duff team.

To see more The Masters stats & data sheets click here

GOLF TIPS & PICKS

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Cameron Smith 14/1 – 10 Places – Paddy Power 1/5

With two wins and one of them being the fifth major that is The Players Championship. The other win was the sentry tournament of champions and he’s played some solid golf this year with a T4th in Saudi and a T33rd at the Genesis, propelling himself up to world #6 and is pushing for a top spot soon enough.

Smith’s numbers at Augusta are 10-2-57-5-55.

In 2020 he was T2 with Sungjae Im but after DJ shot 2 rounds of 65 it was a bridge too far, but he certainly made a good account of himself.

His stats this year reads as SGTTG 18th – SGOTT 147th – SGAPR – 8th – SGGIR 7th – SGARG 20th – SGPUTT 3rd.

Cameron just needs to keep doing what he has done from the start of the year, he has all the tools to put the green jacket on.

BROOKS KOPEKA – 16/1 — 11 Places – SkyBet 1/5

It’s been a long journey back for Brooks with all the injuries he has had to overcome, he said it would be one of the first times in five years he;’s been healthy. The world number 19 has already amassed four major championships and been placed second in August and PGA championship so he’s no stranger to these big events and you can be sure if he’s fully fit or as near as then he will be contesting at august.

Brooks is looking back to his best and tide 5th at the WGC only losing to a rejuvenated Dustin Johnson the week before he T12th at the Valspar and T16 two weeks before that at the Honda classic he was also third in phoenix and has missed three cuts this year.

His stats this year reads as SGTTG 98th – SGOTT 64th – SGAPR 103rd – SGGIR 133rd – SGARG 148th – SGPUTT 84th.

He is a four-time major champion and oozes class, looking to return to how he was before the injury. His course form reads 22 – 21 – 11 – 2 – 7 – MC.

Xander Schauffele – 20/1 — 10 Places – Paddy Power 1/5

Xander is slowly getting back to the man who at one stage had world number 1 written all over him. It’s hard to if he has underachieved with only 6 wins to him name. He won the Tour Championship in 2017 and the Olympic title in 2021. He almost won a major here with a T2 in 2019 and a T3 in 2021. He’s pushing himself for that first major title, which definitely could be at The Masters this week. His game is in good shape, and he is in good form, including a T3 at Phoenix and a T18 in Saudi.

Shane Lowry- 35/1 — 11 Places – SkyBet 1/5

Shane at the ripe old age of 35 has already one major championship to his name, he’s pushing to wear his favourite colour… green! Shane has grown as a player and is an accomplished PGA Tour player, he’s up to World number 35 ad like so many other he’s chasing his first win. Unfortunately, mother nature and a brilliant iron shot from Sep Straka prevented him from his 6th professional wain at The Honda. Its been a few years since he won, that came at the Open Championship. He cam close in 2016 to a US Open title and was T4 in last years PGA Championship where Phil Mickelson at 50 years made history by being the oldest winner.

His stats this year reads as SGTTG 25th – SGOTT 53rd – SGAPR 14th – SGGIR 29th – SGARG 116th  – SGPUTT 18th

Will Zalatoris – 28/1 — 11 Places – SkyBet 1/5

Will has seen a meteoric rise in the world of golf he was ranked outside the top 2000 players not so long ago, how things have changed in a short time. He’s up to 29th in the world now.

He was raised in Texas and played alongside Jordan Spieth in junior tournaments he shot the course record at Bent Tree when he was around 11 years old and he shot 29 on the front nine and finished with a 63 so his rise is no surprise to most because he was such a talent at a young age and won the US Junior Open.

Will is looking for his first win on the PGA Tour and lost in a playoff recently to Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open. This year he has not missed a cut, we all know that his Achilles heal is putting but that has improved of late and looked strong at the WGC Matchplay.

Joaquin Niemann – 45/1 — 11 Places – SkyBet 1/5

Joaquin has won quite a few tournaments in the US and in Chile as an amateur. He has 2 wins on the PGA Tour, his first at the Greenbrier in 2019 and then this year at the Genesis. He’s also lost twice in the play-offs in 2021. Is ball striking off the tee and approach have been solid so far this year.

He won the Genesis and averaged 4.61 strokes gained on the field. This year could be the first Chilean winner of the Masters

DEBUTANTES TO LOOK OUT FOR

  • Sam Burns 50/1
  • Talor Gooch 150/1
  • Sepp Straka 200/1
  • Lucas Herbert 200/1
  • CAmeron Davis 300/1

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW 2022

MARCH 15TH 2022 – ‘@NelsonsGolfTips.

The Players Championship is so hard to follow but the Valspar is equal to the task, the Players Championship was won by Cameron Smith and weren’t without its interruptions with the weather,.the on-course staff did a tremendous job of getting it playable.

We are weeks away from the master so were expecting a solid field at the Copperhead Course to get their game fine-tuned, last year we had four of the top ten and I can see more big guns coming here, more notable players were here last year including Corey Conners, Abraham Ancer, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed and Joaquin Niemann.

Course copperhead course

The Copperhead Course is played at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, just north of Tampa Florida, it was opened in 1970 it has four golf courses on the property with Copperhead being the most famous, it was designed by someone called Larry Packard.

The course measures 7340 yards par 71, many if not all the holes have some resemblance of dog legs which will play into the hands of someone who can work the ball both ways, there are four par 5s and five par 3s with

The signature holes on the course come right at the end of the round with them being the 16th through to the 18th and need no introduction, it’s called The Snake Pit.

16TH HOLE – 475 Yards

The 16th hole is a par four 475 Yards, it has a wall of trees on the left-hand side coupled with a large pond on the right-hand side waiting for those wayward drives. And the further you drive the ball the narrower the fairway gets, It is possibly seen as a non-driving hole but sacrificing distance can leave a very long shot into a small green.

17TH HOLE- 215 Yards

This long par three seems to look easy but don’t let it fool you its green is larger than usual but is guarded on all fronts with the bunkers, so walking away with a par will more than suffice.

18TH HOLE -445 Yards

This is why they call it the Snake Pit, it’s an intimidating closing hole with trees and bunkers on both sides of the fairway and if you fall into the left-hand trap then hitting the green in regulation is very hard, while a shot into the bunkers on the right gives you a good look into the green, they are all very narrow so hitting the front side bunkers is a good bailout but hitting the back ones is a big no-no due to the fact the green significantly slopes from back to the front and making it impossible to get up and down.

Overall this course is a stern test of the mind and is very narrow with tree-lined fairways which need the ball moving a lot, the winning score last year was -17 but normally between 7-10 under, the copperhead course is a great test of a golfer.

PAST WINNERS

2021 SAM BURNS -17 STATS SGOTT – 16TH, SGTTG- 5TH SGAPR- 14TH, SGGIR- T35, SGSCR- T30, SGPUTT- 3RD

2020 CANCELLED

2019 PAUL CASEY -8 STATS SGOTT- 6TH SGTTG- 1ST, SGAPR- 7TH, SGGIR- T5, SGSCR- 47TH, SGPUTT- 43RD.

2018 PAUL CASEY -10 STATS SGOTT- 50TH, SGTTG- 6TH, SGAPR- 7TH, SGGIR- T30, SGSCR- 3RD, SGPUTT- T5.

2017 ADAM HADWIN -14 STATS SGOTT- 47TH, SGTTG- 5TH, SGAPR- 2ND, SGGIR- T5, SGSCR- 7TH, SGPUTT- 4TH.

2016 CHARL SCHWARTZEL -7 STATS SGOTT- 52ND, SGTTG- 4TH, SGAPR- 3RD, SGGIR- T10, SGSCR- T45, SGPUTT- 12TH.

2015 JORDAN SPIETH -10 STATS SGOTT- 28TH, SGTTG- 1ST, SGAPR- 12TH, SGGIR- T32, SGSCR- 18TH, SGPUTT- 26TH.

2014 JOHN SENDEN -7 STATS SGOTT 57TH, SGTTG- 3RD, SGAPR- 5TH, SGGIR- T3, SGSCR- T35, SGPUTT- 15TH.

2013 KEVIN STREELMAN -10 STATS SGOTT- 21ST, SGTTG- 5TH, SGAPR- 7TH, SGGIR- T11, SGSCR- 1ST, SGPUTT- 3RD.

2012 LUKE DONALD -13 STATS SGOTT 25TH, SGTTG- T41, SGAPR- 62ND, SGGIR- T43, SGSCR- T28, SGPUTT- 1ST.

2011 GARY WOODLAND – 15 STATS SGOTT 10TH, SGTTG- 7TH, SGAPR- 39TH, SGGIR-T29, SGSCR- 6TH, SGPUTT-3RD.

Looking back at the winner stats the strokes gaines tee to green are up there in the high numbers along side strokes gained approach, so have a good look out for some good recent form with those strong numbers.

PICKS

VICTOR HOVLAND 11/1- 3PTS WIN W,HILL

Victor has been in stupendous form his recent outings have yielded some good scores without getting over the line, he finished T9 at the players -T12 at the API and T4 at the Genesis, his driving and iron play has made him into a solid player with him up to number three in the world ranking, he was 1st in SGTTG and 3rd in SGAPR at the Players, he was 3rd here last year in his only start, expect more wins this season with this one going in the bag.

COLIN MORIKAWA 11/1 – 3PTS WIN W,HILL

Colin missed the cut at the Players and to be honest he and many more of his professional colleagues were on the wrong side of the draw and had to play in horrendous conditions, that’s not the Morikawa we know he has been in such good form with him being rated the best iron player in the world, his recent stats are Players mc – Genesis T2- Dubai T18, he’s still showing good numbers on course with him 9th SGTTG and 12th SGAPR YTD, he has no course form here but can easily contest this tournament.

KOKRAK 33/1 – 2PTS EW 8 PLACES W, HILL

Jason has had a slow start to the season he’s had two top 30s and T53 at the players but as you are well aware that’s not the kokrak we know after two wins in 2021 and one in 2020, he’s better than the bare form suggests, Jason has some good course form here with him T2-T8 and T13 so expect him to be fighting on Sunday for his first win of the year.

KEEGAN BRADLEY 50/1- 1PT EW 8 PLACES W,HILL

Keegan had an excellent Players championship and if had he not gone in the water at the 18th who knows what would have happened, he’s made a solid start to the year with a T11th at the Arnold Palmer which wasn’t an easy ride, he was 2nd TTG and 10th SGAPR at the Players and YTD 11th SGTTG and 26th SGAPR which for me are the most important stats for this tournament, he also has a 2nd here and T31 so I’m hoping for a good showing from Bradley.

HAROLD VARNER lll

Harold has already been in the winners circle this year unfortunately it’s not the PGA win he was after but with his recent good form I can see him making it number two like the trend is showing this year, The win in Saudi was a very strong contest with the likes of DJ – Lowry-Niemann- smith – Ancer and Fleetwood in tow, his numbers at the Players were nothing to be sniffed at with him 7th in both SGTTG and SGAPR, he has had a couple of missed cuts before the Players so probably a leap of faith needed.

AARON WISE 66/1 – 0.5PTS EW 8 PLACES W, HILL

This one is a bit left-field but after recent showings, I cant see why he can’t give it a good go, he’s finished T17th at the Arnold Palmer – T5th CJ Cup- T67 at the Genesis and T50 at the Players his numbers can give him a good chance with him being in form his SGTTG is 16th and 6th SGAPR, his last win came back in 2018 at the Byron Nelson. this could be a little gem at 66/1.

BETTING PREVIEW & TIPS -THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP 2022

MARCH 10TH 2022 – SADDLERS07

By @NelsonsGolfTips.

So after the trials and tribulations of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in which Scotty Scheffler won we now move on to what some would call the pinnacle of golf and the (Fith major, according to most people) The Players Championship.

So this season it has been nothing but dull thus far, we’ve had no more than four tour maiden winners, we had the fairy tale of Tom Hoge winning the AT&T at Pebble Beach, we also had the charismatic Scotty Scheffler winning at the Pheonix Open, two other maiden winners were Luke list(The Farmers) and two weeks ago Straka at the Honda Classic so we are not short of drama, which brings us back to the Players.

last year was an emotional triumph by Justin Thomas, after losing his grandad Paul Thomas the month before he had to come from behind to win the Players by one shot to Lee Westwood.

COURSE TPC SAWGRASS (stadium course)

The players have been held at TPC Sawgrass since 1982 it’s a Pete Dye & Alice Dye masterpiece, they have created some amazing courses but this is the crown jewel of their designs, it’s a par 72 just over 7000 yards, The fairways are a celebration grass overseeded by champion fine ryegrass and the greens are TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded with poa trivialis/velvet bentgrass,.Alice and Pete created this course specifically for the players to create drama and knife-edge viewing.

hole 17TH

There are some amazing holes to talk about and why not start with the 17th which is possibly the most famous hole on the PGA Tour and has been voted in the top ten best par 3 holes in the world alongside such holes as the 12th at Augusta and the 8th at Royal Troon (The Postage Stamp ) it’s an island green 132-yard shot which in the past has made or broken your round.

HOLE 12TH

Not to be overshadowed by the centrepiece 17th the 12th has its own idea on putting you out your comfort zone but at the same time gives you the excitement of a possible two-shot swing, The redesign par 4th usually plays just over 300 -350 yards depending on the tee box, just under half the pros go for the green in one, they have to contend with water down the left-hand side which runs alongside the whole of the green and ait has a massive bunker alongside it that gives the players a chance to go for it, there are also three small bunkers on the right waiting to give you an awkward up and down.

THE 16TH HOLE

As you can see the par 5- 16th is easy on the eye but easy is not a word for this hole, it plays just over 500yards and is reachable in two, you have water to contend with on the right-hand side and if you don’t go in you will certainly have some rough to deal with which makes the second shot so much harder to control, on the left-hand side you have trees which if you go in your possibly chipping out and then it’s more like a par rather than an Eagle or Birdie hole, by the green you have one bunker on the right and four on the left, you must make sure you get the ball on the right level of the green due to it being two-tier, the green slopes back to the water so you need to keep it well away from the water or it might roll in.

PAST WINNER

2021 JUSTIN THOMAS -14 SGTTG 1ST – OTT 10TH -APR 5TH -GIR T17 -SCR 14TH – PUTT 42ND.

2020 CANCELLED

2019 RORY MCLLROY -16 SGTTG 1ST -OTT 2ND -APR 6TH -GIR T3 -SCR T40 -PUTT 45TH.

2018 WEBB SIMPSON -18 SGTTG 16TH – OTT 32ND – APR 62ND -GIR T5TH – SCR 24TH -PUTT 1ST

2017 SI WOO KIM -10 SGTTG 2ND – OTT 2ND – APR 17TH – GIRT37TH -SCR 1ST -PUTT 37TH.

2016 JASON DAY -15 SGTTG 3RD -OTT 28TH -APR 9TH -GIR T15TH – SCR 1ST – PUTT 8TH.

2015 RICKY FOWLER -12 SGTTG 5TH -OTT 26TH – APR 5TH – GIR T51 -SCR 10TH – PUTT 20TH.

2014 MARTIN KAYMER -13 SGTTG 2ND – OTT 9TH -APR 4TH -GIR 3RD -SCR 4TH -PUTT 19TH.

2013 TIGER WOODS -13 SGTTG 1ST – OTT 30TH -APR 2ND – GIR T3RD – SCR 6TH -PUTT 38TH.

2012 MATT KUCHAR -13 SGTTG 10TH -OTT 20TH -APR 12TH – GIR T3RD -SCR 21ST -PUTT 2ND.

2011 K J CHOI -13 SGTTG 28TH – OTT 45TH – APR 27TH – GIR 21ST – SCR 3RD – PUTT 2ND.

Looking back at the past winner its quite obvious that strokes gained off the tee and approach are important with possibly someone who has strong scrambling stats, looking back you can see some strong iron players have won the players with the likes of Tiger – Rory -Thomas – Day – and fowler, we are looking for the best birdie makers, and we need to identify those with good SG/approach numbers.

correlating courses

QUAIL HOLLOW (results)

HARBOUR TOWN (results)

EAST LAKE (results)

SEDGEFIELD (results)

PICKS

JUSTIN THOMAS 12/1- 3PTS EW 11 PLACES BOYLE SPORTS 1/5 ODDS

After a steady start to the season, last year’s winner is back to defend his title and will be coming down the stretch on the 18th with him winning back to back players. He has three top tens this year out of four starts with him finishing T20th on the other start, his stats for the Genesis where he finished 6th which was his last start read as SGTTG 9th -SGOTT 4th – SGAPR 47th – SGGIR T8th- SCR T12th- PUTT 14th, stats so far this year are SGTTG 4th – OTT 16th – APR 10th- GIR 14th – SCR 16th- PUTT 127th. as you can see from the stats Justin has been steady off the tee with good stats with the TTG, his irons are not the usual darts he throws but they are not a million miles away from being where he wants them to be, Justin is a solid bet and at 11 places its a licence to print money for me.

COLIN MORRIKAWA 12/1- 3PTS EW 11 PLACES WITH BOYLE SPORTS 1/5 ODDS

Colin has started the year with a bit of a mixed bag he has two top tens to his name he also T18 in Dubai and T62 at Abu Dhabi, but his recent start where he was T2 was so much better. His stats for the Genesis were SGTTG 6th SGOTT 7th SGAPR 26th SGGIR T8th SGSCR 1st SGPUTT 3rd, his course form is pretty average with him only T41 in 2021 which was his only start there. Colin has their wins in 2021 with one of them being the open championship, it won’t be long before he adds to that tally.

MATSUYAMA 25/1- 2PTS EW 11 PLACES BOYLE SPORTS 1/5 ODDS

Hideki has already tasted victory this year at the Sony he’s also posted a T8th at the Pheonix and two other top 30s. Last year’s Masters champion has shown that it wasn’t just a fluke and is trying to establish himself as a solid top ten player in the world, at the moment he’s 11th. Hideki has some course form to go on, he’s T7-T17-T22-T23at the stadium course, he’s also played well at some correlating courses such as East Lake and the Wyndham, Matsu has played some solid golf this year and with the stats pointing towards SGOTT and SGAPR Hideki must have a good chance of getting his first win in the players.

DANIEL BERGER 40/1- 1 PT EW -8 PLACES WITH PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

So I’m giving Daniel a reprieve after the Honda debacle, this man has talent in abundance, he made the Ryder Cup-winning team last year with his great form, so far this year he’s posted T5 at the Sentry- T20 Farmers – mc and 4th at the Honda, his missed cut at the Pheonix was by 3 shots, his numbers suggest he’s due a win with him 39th SGOTT -6th SGTTG gaining 1.639 strokes – 3rd APR -22nd GIR -1st SCR and 89th Putt, so let’s hope he used his time off to brush up on the putting, and if he can keep his nerve in the final round then he can get his first Players.

SI WOO KIM 80/1-0.5PTS EW 8 PLACES WITH PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

What can we say about the enigmatic person that is Si Woo that ain’t already been said after being the youngest golfer to win the players at the ripe old age of 21, his numbers this year are trending towards another win after winning the Wyndham last year, he’s posted T26 at the API – 73Rrd at Genesis- T26 phoenix- 11th Farmers- 11th Amex-T55 Sony and T23 at the Sentry, his course form is 1st in 2017 – T9 2021 – T56 in 2019 – T63- 2018 and T23 in 2016, he also has correlating form winning the Wyndham with a 2nd and 3rd, he also has a second at Harbour town. Si Woo is back at his old hunting ground where he feels most comfortable.

KEVIN KISNER 80/1- 0.5PTS EW – 11 PLACES BOYLE SPORTS 1/5 ODDS

Kevin has been on the tour for quite some time but the Players has eluded him, like others in the same boat he’s trying to get his first win at the Stadium Course, he’s placed better than most with the good course form he has and playing well at similar venues, he also comes into the players with the good recent form he mc the Arnold Palmer but after such a hard tournament he can be forgiven that, previously he T38 at the Pheonix -mc – T3rd at the sony and T8th at the Sentry, Kevin is a solid ew player at here.

THE HONDA CLASSIC 2022 BETTING PREVIEW & TIPS

By @NelsonsGolfTips

This event has been hosted at several places over the years but settled at the PGA National since 2007, it hosted the Ryder Cup in 1983 and the 1987 PGA Championship, it went under renovation in 2002.

Course PGA National

Its a par 72 and is 7,048 yards it was designed by George and Tom Fazio then redesigned by Jack Nicklaus, its fairways are Bermudagrass: perennial ryegrass and the greens are Tifeagle Bermuda. The course is made up of four par 5s, four par 3s and ten par 4s.

There is only one place to start and that’s the Bear Trap holes 15-17 which are the signature holes on this course possibly only out done by Amen corner as three most famous holes in the states

HOLE15.

The Bear Trap has two par 3s, kicking off on the 15th, it’s a 179-yard hole that requires a slight draw off the tee sending it over the water on the right-hand side. There are two bunkers beyond the green, the smart play is to aim at the bottom tier on the left and hope for a two-putt to a back pin if the hole location is on that portion of the green then more birdies can be had.

HOLE 16

The 16th hole is a dogleg right par 4 which measures 434 yards off the Tee, there is water along the right-hand side with fairway bunkers to protect the aggressive drivers and the overly cautious ones. The green shape runs diagonally to the right of the approach shot from the fairway, we have seen numerous players over the years going for the money shot and ending up either in the bunker or worse into the water, play the safe way and walk off with a much deserved par.

HOLE 17

The final hole on the bear trap is another Par 3, the 17th is the best by far and the scariest of them. It’s a tee shot pretty much over water to a thin-ish green that runs long, miss it on the right side? splash, bail out left? you’ll be fortunate to find a bunker or you might go further left into the grass either way a poor second shot could send your ball to a watery grave.

As stated earlier PGA National is one of the toughest nuts to crack on the tour, undoubtedly solid ball striking is the way to get the job done, keeping your ball out of the numerous water hazards will help you achieve success with solid ball striking.

HISTORY

PGA National is undoubtedly a tough test only twice in the last seven years has the winning score been double digits both Rickie Fowler in 2017 and Matt Jones in 2021 have shot -12, the other winning scores over the past seven years have been -8 -9 -6 -8 and -6 from Sun Jae Im.

Just how difficult the course plays is dictated by how hard the wind blows and of course if the track has been softened up by the rain

PAST WINNERS

2011 RORY SABATINI 1st TTG – 39th SGOTT – 4th SGAPR – T21st GIR – 1st SCR – 21st SG PUTT.

2012 RORY MCllROY 2nd TTG – 2nd SGOTT – 8th SGAPR – T10th GIR – 1st SCR – 9th SG PUTT

2103 M THOMPSON 4th TTG – 34th SGOTT – 3rd SGAPR – T5th GIR – 36th SCR – 5th SG PUTT

2014 R HENLEY 3rd TTG – 28th SGOTT – 16th SGAPR -T26th GIR – T9th SCR – 31st SG PUTT

2015 P HARRINGTON 2nd TTG – 52nd SGOTT -2nd SGAPR – T24th GIR – 6th SCR – 37th SG PUTT

2016 A SCOTT 3rd TTG – 5th SGOTT – 2nd SGAPR – 1st GIR – 6th SCR – 23rd SG PUTT

2017 R FOWLER 7th TTG – 10th SGOTT – 16th SGAPR – T18th GIR – T9th SCR – 2nd SG PUTT

2018 J THOMAS 1st TTG – 13th SGOTT -1st SGAPR – T14th GIR – 1st SCR – 28th SG PUTT

2019 K MITCHELL 1st TTG – 12th SGOTT – 7th SGAPR – T22nd GIR – T2nd SCR – 38th SG PUTT

2020 SUN JAE IM 1st TTG – 11th SGOTT – 5th SGAPR – T2nd GIR – T5th SCR – T38th SG PUTT

2021 M JONES 1st TTG – 10th SGOTT – 7th SGAPR – T5th GIR – 17th SCR – 25th SG PUTT

As we can see from the past 11 years SGTTG and SGAPR are very important stats, only Rickie Fowler has finished out of the top 5 for strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained approach is massively important no winner has finished no worse than 16th, putting doesn’t seem that important but would be good to have the flat stick working for you rather than against you, most of the winner also had decent scrambling stats.

Looking at past winners and placed players a few tournaments keep popping up, form from the Masters – the players and Arnold palmer invitational seems relevant matt Jones 3rd at Arnold Palmer, Sun Jae 3rd twice at the Arnold Palmer, Mitchell T5- T6 at the AP, Thomas 1st in the players and 4th in the Masters, Harrington 2nd twice in the players, Fowler 1st-2nd in the players 2nd in the masters, Mcllroy 1st in the players 1st in the AP. The greens on the course spoken about are Bermuda at both the players and AP and bent grass at the Masters, I would dare to say players who perform well on Bermuda grass will thrive at the Honda,

Another similarity that is relevant some of the winners have form in the Open Championship both Rory and Padraig have won in the Open, Fowler has finished T2nd – T6th and won the Scottish open, JT 11th, Scott 2nd-T3rd -T5th.

One other point to note on this roll of houour only 5 of the past 11 winners have hailed from the US.

From the point of recent form its a bit of a mish mash some players came into it with good form but other have no form to speak of so for me were looking for a player with strong good TTG and good APR twinned with the fact they are good on Bermuda and possibly have some form on the courses i spoke about.

PICKS

BERGER 16/1 3PTS EW W,HILL 8 PLACES

After a much needed break Daniel is back and hopefully with a bang, he missed the cut at the Phoenix and prior to that he posted a T20 at the Farmers and a T5th at the Sentry. The world number 21 has gone close here before finishing second here in 2105 and t4th in 2020, his stats this year lead me to believe he’s got the tools to get the job done here his TTG is T10th his SG APR 7th and his GIR are 30th in this year to date standings, he also has form on other Bermuda grass courses he’s won twice at the St Jude.

OoSTHUIZEN 20/1 2PTS EW W,HILL 8 PLACES

Louis missed last weeks Genesis but the guy is ultra consistent, he’s been plagued at the end of last year with a lower back problem. were hoping for the louis of old with him dialling in the wedges. He’s got some course form here T24 -T21 but nothing to write home about, his recent form reads T14 -MC – T26 – T14, his recent stats read as 1st in GIR 14th TTG. Louis has the course form I’ve spoken about he’s won an Open Championship and T3rd he has a masters 2nd and players T2nd its been quite some time since he won 2018 to be exact so with such a weak field its probably as good time as ever to do it.

FLEETWOOD 20/1 2PTS EW W,HILL 8 PLACES

Just like Louis its been some time since he lifted a trophy not as long though as Oosty he won in 2019 in the Nedbank Challenge hosted by no other than Gary Player, tommys old form boasts of 5 wins on the DPWT Tour and he’ looking to get his first win in the states after his close 2nd in the U.S Open in Shinnecock hills in 2018 losing by one shot to Brooks Koepka. He has a 3rd and 4th place here at the PGA National his recent stats are T8th -T12th -T48th -T36th.

PEREIRA 40/1 1PT EW W,HILL 8 PLACES

Mito had a wonderful year in 2021 winning twice on the KFT he also just missed out on an Olympic medal by finishing T4th, he’s had an up and down start to the season with him missing two cuts and posting two solid efforts to date he T25 at the Farmers and this week a solid T15 at the Genesis, his T14th GIR, 22nd SGOTT and 25th SGAPR are welcome numbers for the form book, it wont be long before this Chilean gets his maiden win

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VEGAS 50/1 0.5PTS W,HILL 8 PLACES

Three time PGA tour winner Jhonattan Vegas is back to his old best with a couple of good scores posted, its been a long time between drinks but after his T8th in the Saudi International his game seems to be in a much better place, his T55 at the genesis showed some good stats he was 20th SGTTG – 14th SGAPR – T8 GIR, He posted a T4th at the Honda and he also posted a 3rd – 7th at the players, it would be nice to see this gentleman in the winners circle.

BEZUIDENHOUT 50/1 0.5PTS EW W,HILL 8 PLACES

Christian is settling in well on the PGA tour he’s still a maiden on the PGA, he’s been solid this year unfortunately he missed the cut at Genesis seems like the driver wasn’t playing ball hopefully a stint down the range has fixed that, he’s no course form to speak of as he’s not played the Honda before. its going to be tough with him facing the Bear trap for the first time but with that exceptional short game he wont be far away from the first win.

GENESIS INVITATIONAL PREVIEW & BETTING TIPS

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@NelsonsGolfTips.

The west coast swing makes its final stop at historic Riviera Country club. The Genesis invitational is thought to be one of the best tournaments of the year.

Course Riviera Country Club

The Riviera was designed by George C. Thomas Jr and William P. Bell. It’s a par 71 measuring 7,322 yards. The fairways and rough consist of kikuyu grass and the greens are Poa annua. There are also tight tree lined fairways so accuracy is key off the tee, but if it is wet conditions it can then become a driving fest. The Genesis Invitational normally entices the big guns in the top 20, with no other than at least eight of the top ten here religiously every year, including Dustin Johnson who hasn’t missed playing here from the start of the Genesis. Looking at the course historically the first hole is the easiest on the course and most of would be disappointed if they walked off with a par. The risk and reward hole 10th is drivable at 315 yards, it’s a good eagle opportunity but if you miss on the wrong side then a bogey is a possibility, the great Tiger Woods once said it’s the coolest par 4 we’ll play.

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THE LAST TEN WINNERS

2012 HAAS -7 won play off. stats SG TTG 31st/ SG OTT 50th/ SG GIR T58 /SG APR 51st/ SG PUTT 3rd.

2013 MERRICK -11 won play off. stats SG TTG 1st/ SG OTT 37th/ SG GIR T23/ SG APR 7th/ SG PUTT 15th

2014 WATSON -15 SG TTG 1st/ SG OTT 1st/ SG GIR 11th/ SG APR 16th/ SG PUTT 20th.

2015 HAHN -6 won play off. stats SG TTG 2nd/ SG OTT 7th/ SG GIR T28/ SG APR 22nd/ SG PUTT 50th.

2016 WATSON -15 stats SG TTG 5th/ SG OTT 16th/ SG GIR T7/ SG APR 3rd/ SG PUTT 11th.

2017 JOHNSON -17 stats SG TTG 8th/ SG OTT 2nd/ SG GIR 1st/ SG APR 20th/ SG PUTT 3rd.

2018 WATSON -12 stats SG TTG 2nd/ SG OTT 17th/ SG GIR T7/ SG APR 11th/ SG PUTT 21st.

2019 HOLMES -14 stats SG TTG 11th/ SG OTT T31/ SG GIR T2/ SG APR 6th/ SG PUTT 1st.

2020 SCOTT -11 stats SG TTG 3rd/ SG OTT 17th/ SG GIR 26th/ SG APR 3rd/ SG PUTT 27th.

2021 HOMA -12 won play off. stats SG TTG 3rd/ SG OTT 2nd/ SG GIR T5/ SG APR 21st/ SG PUTT 7th.

When trying to find any connection with past winners and places players, it becomes clear that previous course form is quite relevant. Before he won last year, Homa previously posted T5th in the year before and T37 in 2019. Adam Scott, 2020 winner was another who posted a top ten the year before he won. Johnson posted a 4th in 2016 the year before he won, highlighting what i said about course form. Another connection I found is that recent form, which again can be considered, is as important as course form. The stats speak for themselves, the winner posted no worse than T29 at the event before they won at Riviera, only Bubba Watson and J B Holmes are the exceptions, two weeks before Genesis they posted a top 20, so were back to recent form as a plus, Max Homa posted T7 at Pebble the week before his win, Scott won at the Australian Open the week before, Johnson posted 3rd at Pebble the week before his 2017 win, 2015 Hahn was 29th the week before his win, Watson was T2 in 4014 the event before his win, Merrick in 2103 was T16 the week before his win and Haas was T19 the event before his win at Riviera. so as you can see recent form with course form is a must especially if you want to find the winner. looking at the stats SG TTG is showing as a definite starting point, only Holmes 11th and Haas 31st are out of the top 10 in SG TTG, two other good ones are SG GIR and SG APR, most of the last ten winners have posted inside top 30, only Hass is the exception.

WEATHER

Over the four days the weather is forecast sunny Thursday and Friday, Saturday and Sunday sunny with overcast at times, the wind will be between 5-10 mph.

PICKS

RAHM 9/1 2PTS WIN BET 365

John is going through a lean spell, being world number one comes with a hefty weight on your shoulders, his recent form is half decent, he has three top tens and a T14 at the Amex, his stats for his T10 at the Phoenix Open reads SG OTT 1st, SG TTG 3rd, SG GIR 2nd, his putting stats are 58th which as you can see is letting him down, but his driving and iron play is still solid and that’s what he needs to win this, he also has a good record here with two top tens, his last win came in the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2021, it’s time to show the world why he is the best player on the planet..

SCHAUFFLE 22/1 2PTS EW PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

Zander has had a good Phoenix Open just falling short by a shot, he only had two bogeys over the four rounds, it sets him up nicely for the Genesis Open, his stats for last week was 8th SG OTT, 1st TTG, 9th APR, 1st GIR, 5th SCRAMBLING, his recent form is T34 Farmer and 12th at the Sentry, his last win came in the Olympics in 2021 in Japan, which he dedicated it to his father who has dedicated his life in making Zander the golfer he is today, he’s started year with a glint in his eye and looks like the Zander of old, banging in the wedges for tap in birdies, guaranteed it won’t, be long before he gets another win on the tour, overall he’s back to his best doing what he used to, hitting long straight drives and dialing in his wedges.

WILL ZALATORIS 28/1 2PTS EW PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

What can we say apart from like Scotty Scheffler this man should already have his first win, but as you know getting your first win on the tour is tough due to the talent that your up against, can Will make it two first time winners in a row, I hope so, he’s made a solid start to the year with two top tens, a T6th at the Amex and 2nd in the Farmer, his driving stats are where you want them to be, after the Farmer he was 1st TTG, 13th OTT, 1st APR, 10th GIR and 145 putting, as you can see the flat stick needs some attention and with the time off I’ve no doubt he’s been working on it, I will be surprised not to see him in the top ten come Sunday.

FITZPATRICK 33/1 2PTS EW PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

Matt has made a good start to the season posting a T6th at the AT&T at Pebble Beach, stats for the tournament reads SG TTG 19th, SG GIR 30th, SG PUTT 2nd gaining 1.193 on the field, he then went on to post a T10 at the Phoenix Open, stats there was SG OTT 22nd, SG TTG 11th, SG APR 8th, SG GIR T47 and 30th in Putting, with a final round of 67, Matt’s still looking for his first PGA Tour win, he last won on the DP World Tour in 2021 at the famous and hard Valderrama golf course in the Andalucia Masters, Matt’s game is trending in the right direction twinned with his T5th at Riviera it’s got to give him a good chance.

HOMA 40/1 0.5 PTS EW WILLIAM HILL 1/5 ODDS

Max is the winner of last year’s event with a score of -12 and winning it in a play off with the unlucky Tony Finau, this season he’s only played in three events and one of them he missed the cut, but he has posted two top 20s with a 15th at the Sentry and 14th at the Waste Management, posting stats of 5th OTT, 27th TTG, 39th APR, T23 GIR and 16th in PUTT, Max is showing some of his old form and if he gets his approach game in order then watch out, moustache or no moustache he’s still in the top 50 and he’s top draw.

preview by @NelsonsGolfTips.