The second major of the year is upon us. The PGA Championship looks set to be another block buster major with plenty of potential story lines ready to be written come Sunday evening. Will Jordan Spieth become only the sixth person to complete the grand slam? Will Rory McIlroy use member advantage to win on a course he plays at? Will a LIV golfer take the PGA crown to send the golfing world into a meltdown? Or will Jon Rahm try to emulate Tiger & try to hold every major at the same time? One thing we know is that it will be a fantastic week at the PGA especially after the course changes which will truly test every part of the one hundred & fifty-six players entered this week.
Course
The PGA this week is back at Oakhill Country club on the east course located in Pittsford New York. Oakhill has hosted its fair share of major events over its one hundred & twenty-two-year history. The PGA championship has been held here in 1980, 2003 & 2013. The US Open in 1956,1968 & 1989. One Ryder cup has been held here in 1995. 1949 & 1998 saw the US Amateur here & finally the Senior PGA has been here in 2008 & 2019, so it is a course with a vast history.
There have been numerous changes since the 2013 PGA with Andrew Green redesigning the course. He has removed hundreds of trees on the property which should give players a lot more options that in previous events. They will not have to chip out every time they are wayward into trees. The greens have undergone a state-of-the-art drainage upgrade & they have also been made larger for more pin position options. The greens have also been shaved at the front to catch players out when they come up short with approaches. All the bunkers have been recontoured & filled with new sand. Lastly new tees have been added on half a dozen holes to make the par 70 a monster 7400 yards. To put that length into perspective this week’s Bryon Nelson course is a par 72 which measure 7468 yards & Augusta is a par 72 measuring 7545 yards. Earnie Els described it as “It’s the best, fairest & toughest championship golf course I’ve ever played in all my years as a tour professional”
The par 70 layout is made up of four par 3s measuring between 160 & 245 yards (Average 203), twelve par 4s measuring between 320 & 500 yards (Average 444) & just two par 5s both measuring over 600 yards at 615 & 625. There are seventy-eight bunkers strategically position around the track & water is in play n 6 holes. Fairways are Bentgrass /Poa Annua & the greens are completely Bentgrass after the rebuild of all eighteen greens. Even with the rebuild the greens are considerably small compared with the tour average.
Weather
The weather so far is looking like Saturday may be a problem. Rain is expected all day with 10mph winds which knowing how the PGA operate we will likely see rain delays. Thursday & Friday should get by without any problems with 20° both days & little to no wind & rain predicted so everyone should finish their second rounds on Friday. With rain predicted for much of Saturday there is a high chance we could see early starts on Sunday & even the chance of a two tee start to get the tournament finished on Sunday evening. The Saturday winds also continue into Sunday so some holes will be playing an extra club when they are into the breeze which makes this already long course even longer & harder.
PGA History
2022 – Southern Hills Country Club
Winner – Justin Thomas
Score -5
Odds – 16/1
2021 – Kiawah Island Golf Resort
Winner – Phil Mickelson
Score -6
Odds – 225/1
2020 – TPC Harding Park
Winner – Collin Morikawa
Score -13
Odds – 35/1
2019 – Bethpage State Park
Winner – Brooks Koepka
Score -8
Odds – 10-1
2018 – Bellerive Country Club
Winner – Brooks Koepka
Score -16
Odds – 20-1
2013 – Oakhill Country Club
Winner – Jason Dufner
Score -10
Odds – 40-1
Top 5 players playing this week per stokes gained categories.
Off the Tee; Scheffler, Cantlay, Buckley, Mitchell & Hovland
Approach; Finau, Hoge, Rahm, Morikawa & Schauffele
Tee to Green; Scheffler, Rahm, Finau, McIlroy & Morikawa
Around the Green; Kuchar, Thomas, Todd, Fleetwood & Griffin
Putting; McNealy, Ryder, Montgomery, Burns & B. Taylor
Selections
Xander Schauffele 22-1 William Hill 8 Places 2 PTS
Xander will be looking to pick up his maiden major this week. He comes into the week off the back of a 2nd place finish at the Wells Fargo where he was criticised again for not having the cutting edge to get it done on a Sunday. Even with that lurking in his mind you cannot take away from the fact he is in some of the best form of his life, he is just missing a win to put the cherry on top of season. In his last four Strokeplay starts he has not finished lower than 19th with two top 5 finishes & another top 5 in the team event with Patrick Cantlay. Overall, this season the Olympic champion has had eight top 10 finishes which shows how consistent he has been all year. Xander’s stroke average this season ranks him 3rd with 69.448 behind only Rahm & Scheffler. There are two stats I particularly like this week for Xander, one is greens in regulation where he ranks 19th hitting 69.71% of greens & the second is his par 4 average scoring which is 3.96 which ranks him 13th
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 68th
Approach 5th
Tee to Green 7th
Around the Green 30th
Putting 19th
Form – 2/4/10/19/39
Course Form – Debut
Sungjae Im 33-1 Bet365 8 Places
Sungjae has a 24-hour trip to deal with this week which he should give himself enough time to recover from any jet lag. He flew out to Korea last week for the Woori Financial group championship which he won by one shot after a final round 68 finished off with an excellent up & down from the bunker on the par 5 18th hole. This win should inject the Korean with even more confidence just intime for the second major of the year. Yet to win this season on the PGA tour but he has still had an incredibly consistent season with twelve top 25 finished, seven of those being top 10s. The win in Korea might just be the medicine he needed to believe he can get tournaments over the line again. his game does not have any huge weaknesses stats wise where he ranks in the top 20 in three of the five main strokes gained categories. One key stat for Sungjae that I like this week is his scrambling, with the length of the course there will be plenty of missed greens by even the best players in the world & Sungjae ranks 15th on tour for scrambling so should he miss a green the likelihood of him getting up & down is particularly good.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 13th
Approach 60th
Tee to Green 14th
Around the Green 19th
Putting 60th
Form – 1/8/7/16/17
Course Form – Debut
Tyrrell Hatton 35-1 Skybet 8 Places
Another player looking for major number one is Tyrrell Hatton. Tyrrell push for a major has been helped with the acquisition of Major Caddy winner Bo Martin after his split earlier this year from Shane Lowrey. Bo could be the perfect fit for Hatton who is known for getting very hot-headed during a round of golf & Bo is the complete opposite he is very relaxed & helped Lowrey keep his cool on the course which can only help Hatton. Their last two starts together they have finished 5th & 3rd so the partnership has got off to a brilliant start. The Englishman’s driver will be a key asset this week with his length & accuracy combination being one of the best on tour. He ranks 31st for distance & 32nd for accuracy which should put him in excellent positions compared with most players on a long track with challenging shots should you miss a fairway.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 11th
Approach 11th
Tee to Green 6th
Around the Green 57th
Putting 25th
Form – 5/3/19/32/MC
Course Form – Debut
Adam Scott 70-1 Skybet 8 Places
Adam Scott is one of the few players teeing it up this week that has played in the previous two PGA championships held here back in 2013 & 2003 where he finished 5th & 23rd. even with the course changes this could still benefit Adam as he knows the grounds & knows he has had two very good finishes here. Scotty is in great form coming in this week with two top 10 finishes in his last two starts & he has the game to relish the challenge this week to pick up his 2nd major championship. The Australians length will be an asset this week, he ranks 15th for average driving distance so even as he reaches his mid-forties he can keep up with the youngsters. Adam ranks 11th for birdies or better on par 4 scoring with one every 21.13% which with twelve par 4s on offer this week it should be a great attribute for him to rely on.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 31st
Approach 142nd
Tee to Green 61st
Around the Green 39th
Putting 54th
Form – 8/5/31/39/31
Course Form – 5/23
Wyndham Clark 80-1 WilliamHill 8 Places
Fresh of his maiden win at the Wells Fargo you will struggle to find somebody with more confidence that Wyndham this week. There is not really a weakness in his game, he is ranked 62nd at worst in strokes gained categories. Clark is par 3,4 & 5 scoring ranking on average is one of the best on tour. He ranks 44th for par 3 with 3.02, 27th for par 4 with 3.98 & 13th for par 5 with 4.5. this shows how consistent he has become this year & the win on his last start im sure will be the first of many now he has the monkey off his back. Distance off the tee will not be an issue for The American who is one of the longest on tour averaging 301 yards which is the 20th longest on tour, an attribute that he will be able to use to his advantage this week.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 57th
Approach 20th
Tee to Green 21st
Around the Green 62nd
Putting 61st
Form – 1/24/3/29/6
Course Form – Debut
Thorbjorn Olesen 300-1 Skybet 10 Places 0.75PTS
Thorbjorn now free of his court case has relished being back on the DP world tour. He defends in a couple of weeks at the British masters & won just four starts ago in Thailand. He is the currently stroke average leader on the DP Tour with an average round of 68.89. the Dane averages just shy of 300 yards & is hitting over 72% of greens in regulation. A 3rd place finish on his last start will bring some belief in his game that he is ready for one of the toughest weeks in golf. As a twenty-three-year-old ten years ago he played here & finished 40th. Olesen got some stateside golf experience back in his pocket when he teed it up with fellow Dane Nicolai Hojgaard, so he will not be too rusty when it comes to stateside conditions. There are other long shots from various tours that I like this week, but I think Olesen has the best chance of picking up some valuable place money.
Strokes Gained Rank (Stats from DP world) 4
Off the Tee – 18th
Approach – 6th
Tee to Green – 5th
Around the Green – 70th
Putting – 24th
Form – 3/40/6/1/4
Course Form – 40
Good Luck
Ryan Hamilton – RH_G0lf
Odds correct as if 14:00 15/05/23