We are now over halfway through the PGA tour season & its just a few weeks until the 2nd major of the season. The Wells Fargo is the last elevated event before the PGA so a chance for the best players to home in their games before the 2nd major. The elevated status promised the best names at these events but the scheduling clearly now taking its toll on a few players with some notables not playing this week, nine of the top 30 in the world will not be playing this week. Jon Rahm & Scottie Scheffler being the main notables not patriating. Even without these players taking the week off there is a $20million purse to play for. Life changing for some of the players lower down in the fedex listings & they can take huge confidence from the amount of ‘shock’ winners in this event that has seem some very high-priced winners here. 500/1 being the largest.
Course
This week’s course needs no introduction, it has been hosting professional events since 1969. It is Quail Hollow Located in Charlotte, North Carolina USA. Quail Hollow has been hosting the Wells Fargo every year since 2003 with 2017 & 2022 the only exceptions. However, both missing years still saw Quail Hallow used for tour events, 2017 was the PGA Championship & 2022 was the Presidents Cup which USA won 17.5 – 12.5. Before becoming the home of the Well Fargo, it was the home of the Kemper Open from 1969 – 1979 & then it hosted the Senior Tours PaineWebber Invitational from 1983 to 1989. Quail is already scheduled in to host the 2025 PGA Championship.
The course itself is a George Cobb design completed in 1961 which has had numerous Tom Fazio redesigns in the past 20 years most recently in 2016 to lengthen the course ready for the 2017 PGA Championship. The course this year will be a par 71 measuring a monster 7538 Yards & will be made up of four par 3s measuring between 184 & 249 (Average 216), eleven par 4s measuring between 344 & 524 (average 456) & three par 5s measuring between 546 & 592 yards (average 571). There are sixty-one bunkers strategically placed on this course with the majority around the greens & water will be in play on seven holes. Both fairway & the greens are Bermuda grass with the greens overseeded poa annua & fairways overseeded ryegrass. For the 2nd week running its looking like the longer hitters will have the advantage here as the 2nd shots will be looking to be around 180+. Scrambling will also be key this week to getting up & down around missed greens in regulation.
Weather
The first two days of competition look like it will be running smoothly with a 0% chance of rain through Thursday & Friday with temperatures in the high teens to low twenties. Saturday however is a different story; rain is forecast from Friday evening & will continue for much of Saturday morning & afternoon which will more than likely cause delays in play if it gets too heavy. Sunday the weather reverts to the first two days which should mean any delays of play on Saturday can be rectified & the championship should finish on Sunday evening.
Previous Winning Stats
2022
Winner – Max Homa
Score -8
Odds – 45/1
Off the tee 3rd
Tee to Green 10th
Approach the Green 16th
Around the Green 59th
Putting 35th
2021
Winner – Rory McIlroy
Score -10
Odds – 18/1
Off the tee 18th
Tee to Green 9th
Approach the Green 10th
Around the Green 41st
Putting 3rd
2019
Winner – Max Homa
Score -15
Odds – 300/1
Off the tee 18th
Tee to Green 12th
Approach the Green 10th
Around the Green 41st
Putting 1st
2018
Winner – Jason Day
Score -16
Odds – 20/1
Off the tee 19th
Tee to Green 9th
Approach the Green 50th
Around the Green 1st
Putting 2nd
2017 PGA Championship
Winner – Justin Thomas
Score -8
Odds – 40/1
Off the tee 22nd
Tee to Green 11th
Approach the Green 16th
Around the Green 22nd
Putting 4th
Average winning Stats
Score -11
Odds –84.6/1
Off the tee 16
Tee to Green 10.2
Approach the Green 20.4
Around the Green 32.8
Putting 9
Top 5 players playing this week per stokes gained categories.
Off the Tee; Cantlay, Buckley. McIlroy, Mitchell & Hovland
Approach; Finau, Schauffele, Morikawa, McIlroy & Fowler
Tee to Green; McIlroy, Morikawa, Finau, Cantlay & Thomas
Around the Green; An, Thomas, Fleetwood, Griffin & Kuchar
Putting; Ryder, Montgomery, Hall, Burns & B. Taylor
President Cup 2022 Points (Players playing this week only)
| USA | Points | International | Points |
| Sam Burns | 1 | Corey Conners | 0 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 3 | Cam Davis | 2 |
| Tony Finau | 3 | Sung Jae Im | 2.5 |
| Max Homa | 4 | Tom Kim | 2 |
| Collin Morikawa | 2 | SI Woo Kim | 3 |
| Xander Schauffele | 3 | KH Lee | 2 |
| Jordan Spieth | 5 | Taylor Pendrith | 0 |
| Justin Thomas | 4 | Adam Scott | 2 |
| Cameron Young | 1.5 |
Selections
Jordan Spieth 20-1 8Places Bet365 2PTS
Once Jordan went 5/5 at the president’s cup on this course, he must have put this event as a must for 2023, with the elevated status it received that even better for him. Spieth has previously only played here twice before in a Strokeplay event, once in his debut season way back in 2013 & at the PGA championship in 2017. Even with elevated status there no doubt this would have been on his schedule this year. Jordan is one of the few players who have lost their ways & come out the other side as still one of the best players in the world. Currently Spieth is winless this season, but he is trending every week. In his last eight events he has had five top 6 finishes which shows any negative swing thoughts he may have had two years ago have certainly gone & he now has full confidence in the new swing. Knowing how well he performed at the president’s cup he can go into this week knowing he can get the job done.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 77th
Approach 27th
Tee to Green 19th
Around the Green 17th
Putting 64th
Form – 2/4/31/3/19
Course Form – DNP/DNP/DNP/28/DNP/DNP/DNP/32
Justin Thomas 22-1 8 Places Skybet 1.5PTS
Justin Thomas comes into this week fresh off a couple of weeks holiday & a break off the clubs. He has posted on his socials about his spring break with all his golfing friends Jordan, Rickie, Smylie & the wife’s & girlfriends in South Carolina. Justin then went onto post how he tried to do a full week off the clubs, but the golfing bug got him back hitting a few days before the week was over. This break came at the right time for him as even by his standards the last few weeks had not been what he would call clinical. JT only has three top 10s to go on his 2023 resume so far but this week he is fresh & comes to a course where he won his maiden Major in 2017 so a course with fond memories, he also has a couple of top 25 finishes to go with his win here. The now 30-year-old can rely heavily on his long game this week knowing he ranks as one of the best around the green should he miss the greens in regulation where he ranks 1st. Putting has been his downfall this season, but he will know that & will hopefully have worked relentlessly during his break to improve in this category.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 42nd
Approach 42nd
Tee to Green 8th
Around the Green 1st
Putting 152nd
Form – 25/MC/10/60/21
Course Form – 26/DNP/DNP/21/1/MC/7
Wyndham Clark 70-1 8Places WilliamHill
Wyndham made it fifth teen cuts from fifth teen starts last week in Mexico, this is currently the best tour streak with Sahith Theegala. Its hard to find a weakness in Clark’s game coming into this week, he ranks above tour average for all strokes gained categories which proves his game is super consistent. His length will be vital to going well this week with the course set up so long, he ranks 8th in distance this year which will give him shorter irons into greens compared with over half of the field. The American has become a birdie machine this season where he ranks 6th for the season, another attribute that will be great this week with the average winning score at Quail Hollow struggling to reach double figures birdies will be few & far between this week. The last stat I like this week for Clark’s season is his scrambling where he ranks 44th with a 64.08% success rate which will be needed as last year the players that made the weekend missed an average of twenty-five greens
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 59th
Approach 38th
Tee to Green 27th
Around the Green 62nd
Putting 74th
Form – 24/29/6/5/27
Course Form – 43/DNP/MC
Pierceson Coody 300-1 8 Places William Hill 0.75PTS
In just a short space of time Coody has cemented himself on the Korn Ferry tour. In just nineteen starts on tour since last year he has picked up two victories & five additional top 5 finishes. He currently finds himself 6th in the Korn Ferry point ranking which baring a very unfortunate turn in form he will find himself on the PGA tour with full status next year. That being said a win this week would gain him status & this week is a event which has had its fair share of upsets to the form books. In the last ten Wells Fargo championships there have been three huge shock victories, Max Homa was 300/1 in 2019, James Hahn was 500/1 in 2016 & Derek Ernst was also 500/1 in 2013. Pierceson has the game to deliver this week with his huge drives averaging 318.6 yards & greens in regulation stats which any player would be proud of where he hits 73.5% of greens. He ranks 8th for putting average & has a scrambling success rate just short of 60%. If he can bring this game to Quail Hallow this week there no reason, he cannot contest the win come Sunday.
Strokes Gained Rank (No data available, stats from Korn Ferry Tour)
Driving Distance 23rd
Driving Accuracy 52nd
Green in Regulation 38th
Scrambling 65th
Putting Average 8th
Good Luck
Ryan Hamilton – RH_G0lf