This week we welcome the first ladies major of the season. The first major of five sees the Chevron Championship take centre stage with a new venue on show. Mission Hills has been the home of this event since its inception in 1972 when the event was not a major. It was in 1983 when the event became a major championship. The Club at Carlton Woods Nicklaus course now takes over as this major championships home. No longer will we see the winners celebratory jump into the famous Poppie Pond. However, this week’s 18th hole does have a large lake next to the green so the winner may still take a leap into the water after claiming victory.
Chevron Championship – The Course
This week’s course is The Club at Carlton Woods (Nicklaus Course) located at the Woodlands, Texas USA. This is the first time we will see the course hold a professional event for the women’s or men’s game, so data on what is required to win around here is very sparce. The course is a Jack Nicklaus design completed in 2001 & winner of numerous awards such as distinguished club, top 200 course in the USA & is recognised as a platinum club of America. The Club is a par 72 & measures 6824 yards for the Ladies this week consisting of four par 3s, ten par 4s & four par5s. Distance on the Ladies yardages has been hard to come by except for the 18th which will play 525yards max. Jack has strategically placed fifty-nine bunkers in & around the course to catch all the errand Tee & approach shots as well as designing nine holes around the surrounding water which play along the fairways & sit in front greens. The fairways & greens are both Bermuda & will be set up to firm & fast.
Previous Winners of the event (not the same course)
2022
Winner – Jennifer Kupcho
Score -14
Odds 80-1
2021
Winner – Patty Tavatanakit
Score -18
Odds 175-1
2020
Winner – Mi Rim Lee
Score -15
Odds 600-1
2019
Winner – Jin Young Ko
Score -9
Odds 10-1
2018
Winner – Pernilla Lindberg
Score -15
Odds 225-1
2017
Winner – Soyeon Ryu
Score -14
Odds 14-1
Top 5 players playing this week per stokes gained categories.
Off the Tee; N.Korda,AL Kim, Pedersen, M.Lee & Ruoning
Approach; Ruoning, JY Ko, S.Ryu, Lindberg & Valenzuela
Tee to Green; Ruoning,JY.Ko, Thitikul, Tardy & Khang
Around the Green; Yin, Hsu, MH.Lee, Hull & Thomas.
Putting; A.Park, Katsu, Hall, Vu & J.Korda.
SELECTIONS
Georgia Hall 18-1 Coral 6 Places 2PTS
Georgia is the form player coming into the first major this week. She leads the race to the CME globe which shows how consistently well she has been playing lately. In her last six starts she is yet to finish lower than T14 & has two 2nd place finishes in that time. The 2018 British Open Champion has recorded the most rounds under par this season with eighteen rounds under par which has her scoring average sitting at 68.5. Georgia has become a birdie machine this season hitting ninety-one birdies which is only eight birdies behind the overall birdie leader Nelly Korda who has ninety-nine. In her latest social post, it shows how determined she is to keep grinding it out to get a win. ‘Keep knocking on that door.’ It will not be long before she gets another win over the line.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 55th
Approach 17th
Tee to Green 30th
Around the Green 87th
Putting 3rd
Form – 6/2/2/14/10
Course Form – Debut
Brooke Henderson 40-1 Unibet 6 Places
Brooke always brings her best game to the majors. She has played in forty-one majors & has made the cut in thirty-eight of them over a nine-year span which when you consider she was 16 at the start of that span is some achievement. In that time, she has picked up two majors & twenty-five top 25s. The Candian is off the back off an 11th placed finish last week at the Lotte where she closed with a round of 71 for a seven under final score. If Brooke can get the flatstick working early on this week I think she will be cashing in her third major this week. She has the precision off the tee & approach to get some low numbers on the card, 79.37% driving accuracy & 71.3% greens in regulation make me optimistic on her chances this week. It’s also worth a note that the 25year old is one of the only players this week that already has a victory this year when she took home the tournament of champions.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 13th
Approach 92nd
Tee to Green 13th
Around the Green 12th
Putting 95th
Form – 11/MC/48/44/1
Course Form – Debut
Maja Stark 50-1 Unibet 6 Places
Maja started the year off in great form, she finished 2nd & 4th place on the LPGA tour’s first two events & in between them she picked up other ladies’ European tour victory when the Swedish native won the Meryem Cup beating fellow compatriot Linn grant to the title. Since that form she had a rib injury in Singapore where she fished down in 52nd then missed the cut the following week. A weekend off did her the world of good & Maja finished 13th the following week which was her last start before taking two weeks off to prep for the first major of the year. Stark hits the fairway 75% of the time which is why she has great green in regulation stats where she hits 72.53% of greens in regulation hit. Her aggressive style of play could benefit her this week as she is not afraid to take on tricky flag positions & get the driver out when the water is looming for poor tee shots to give her the best chance of making a birdie or even an eagle.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 31st
Approach 34th
Tee to Green 21st
Around the Green 68th
Putting 115th
Form – 13/MC/52/4/1
Course Form – Debut
Natthakritta Vongtaveelap 90-1 Bet365 5 Places
Natthakritta has shot onto the scene in recent months rising to 77th in the world from 764th in January. After back-to-back wins on the Ladies Thailand tour in her first & second pro starts, she made her LPGA debut at the Thailand classic where she held the 54-hole lead but was just beaten to the win by Lilia Vu. The Thai prodigy then finished 6th last week which gives me no reason not to back her this week. In her 2 LPGA start she has shown she can play with the best in the world & beat them. Shes only been beaten by 8 other players scoring wise so she can take huge confidence from that going into her first major. The 20-year-old already ranks of one of the longest hitters on tour ranking 4th with an average drive of 285.5 yards. To go with that she has 2nd best green in regulation stats with 79.17% which even with two events worth of stats is exceptional.
Strokes Gained Rank (Not enough measured rounds to collect data)
Driving Distance 4th
Driving accuracy 142nd
Greens in Regulations 2nd
Sand Saves 5th
Putting average 78th
Form – 6/2/1/1
Course Form – Debut
Mao Saigo 250-1 William Hill 6 Places
Mao is a prolific winner on the JLPGA tour. She won 5 times in the 2022 season with an additional three 2nd places & one 3rd place. The Japan star was on fire last year but currently is yet to find the form of last year, but she is progressively trending in the right direction. Last time out she finished T8 with the week before T17 so improving week by week. She took last week off to travel to the states early to get the best prep possible for this week. There were weeks last year where she would go off as the single figure betting favourite so to get such a high price here it is a no brainer.
Strokes Gained Rank (Not enough measured rounds to collect data, Data from JLPGA Site)
Driving Distance 68th
Average Number of putts 6th
Average number of birdies 13th
Par 3 scoring 4th
Par 4 scoring 40th
Par 5 scoring 41st
Form – 8/17/35/MC/65
Course Form – Debut
Other notables
Lexi Thompson – Made changes to her schedule this year but consistently grinding on the range, Im interested to see goes now Shes fresh
Celine Borge – Solid start to her Rookie season & could be a top 40 top 20 bet.
Good Luck