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Welcome to one of the greatest weeks of the sporting calendar. The Masters and my 2023 The Masters betting preview. A tournament steeped in history & tradition. Traditions such as caddies all in white Jumpsuits, a champion’s Dinner, and a par 3 Contest the day before the tournament are just a few of the week’s events. This week really is a week like no other.
The Masters is always held at the same venue every year. Augusta National has held this event since 1934 except for 1943-45 which was canceled because of the war. The pristine golf course always lights up our screens at this time of year when not a blade of grass is out of place & the Azaleas are in full, colourful bloom.
This week’s field has forty-nine of the top 50 in the world playing with Arron Wise as the only absentee. Eighty-eight players in total will tee it up this week looking to pick up a green jacket & the estimated $2.7Million 1st prize. The field is an invitation-only tournament which is why it is such a small field. Past winners always get an invite back & the invites are sent out for different qualifying criteria. For example, as a top 12 at the previous year’s Masters, Winning or top 4 finish at the other majors, winning on the PGA Tour & top 50 in the world rankings at the end of the year. There are also invitations for top amateurs & other distinct criteria.
The Masters – Augusta National
This week’s location needs no introduction. Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta Georgia. This year has seen the course lengthened again & now measures 7545 Yards. The course is a par 72 made up of four par 3s measuring 155-240 yards, ten par 4s measuring 350-495 yards & four par 5s Measuring 545-575 Yards. Bobby Jones & Alister Mackenzie designed Augusta in 1933 & it has had various redesigns over the years. Augusta National is a plotters course, you need to get the ball in position off the tee to have a chance of making a birdie. If you are out of position, you need your best golf to even consider a par around here. There are severe undulations all around the course with shots up & downhill at nearly every shot so distance control will be key. The fairways are very much tree lined so tee shot accuracy will be even more crucial than most weeks. The rough is not normally a huge factor around here as its cut short, it is the pine needles that tend to cause players the most issues. The greens will be set up to be as quick as every year up to thirteen on the stimp meter. Augusta truly is a great test of golf; every part of your golf game needs to be on point or you will struggle to make the cut.
Weather Forecast
This years Masters is already looking like a Monday finish & we haven’t even had the par 3 event yet. Rain is forecast throughout the entire week & the scattering of thunderstorms will certainly halt play. The scoreboard will have a lot of ‘Weather Warning’ signs on them as we go through the week. Thursday is looking like the best day weather wise with 30° forecast but there is potential for thunderstorms so let’s hope they pass around the area. Friday, Saturday & Sunday all have rain forecast & a 10° drop in temperature making conditions completely different. Luckily with on eighty-eight players to get round the organisers might not have to fit in a Monday finish but that all depends on how bad the rain gets & if the thunderstorms make to around the area. It could work in the longer hitters favour as the ball won’t be running far on the soft ground, similar to 2020.
Previous Winning Stats (no strokes gained data for The Masters)
2022
Winner – Scottie Scheffler
Score -10
Odds – 16-1
2021
Winner – Hideki Matsuyama
Score -10
Odds – 45-1
2020
Winner – Dustin Johnson
Score -20
Odds – 8-1
2019
Winner – Tiger Woods
Score -13
Odds – 14-1
2018
Winner – Patrick Reed
Score -15
Odds – 50-1
2017
Winner – Sergio Garcia
Score -9
Odds – 40-1
2016 – Danny Willet
Score -5
Odds – 50-1
Top 5 players playing this week per stokes gained categories.
Off the Tee; Scheffler, Cantlay, McIlroy, Mitchel & Hovland
Approach; Hoge, Morikawa, Finau, Rahm & Homa
Tee to Green; Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Morikawa & Finau
Around the Green; Thomas, Fleetwood, Matsuyama, Rahm & Spieth
Putting; Burns, Homa, Rahm, Day & Power
The Masters Betting Tips
Scottie Scheffler 7-1 Win only 3PTS Bet365
I feel this week I can’t leave any of the big 3 out of my “the masters betting preview.” So, I’m picking Scottie out of them. The defending champion has already shown this year he is fully capable of defending a title when he defended the Waste Management. He is also fresh of the Player championship victory in his last stroke play start & went twenty-one holes with eventual Match play winner Sam Burns in the Match play Semi Final. The Dallas residents’ stats back up his current form, he ranks second overall for strokes gained total. It’s just his putting which he appears to be lacking with but he’s still managing to rack up wins & top 10s so it cant be that bad. The world no1 will certainly have the spotlight on him this week with him being no1 & defending champ but I’m certain this won’t have any affect on his game this week with his seemingly laid back approach to the game.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 1st
Approach 6th
Tee to Green 1st
Around the Green 21st
Putting 96th
Form – 1/4/12/1/11
Course Form – 1/18/19
Max Homa 33-1 Coral 10 Places
Max has had his critics in major in the lead up to this week’s 1st Major. Just one top 25 in thirteen starts & only five cuts made. This week I am almost certain he will end this by having a great week. Homa is now a 6-time winner on tour & certainly has the confidence in his game to take home a major. Since his last missed cut at The Open Championship he has won twice & has four additional top 10s in fourteen starts with a worst finish of T42 at the Fedex St Jude 12 starts ago. He has only failed to finish in the top 25 just two times in last fourteen which just shows how consistent he has become.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 54th
Approach 5th
Tee to Green 7th
Around the Green 38th
Putting 10th
Form – 6/14/2/39/1
Course Form – 48/MC/MC
Victor Hovland 33-1 Paddy Power 10 Places
Victor is coming Augusta under the radar, there hasn’t been much chatter about him this year compared to usual where he’s been on the shorter side of betting. The Norwegian hasn’t missed a cut since last season’s Scottish Open & has had twelve top 20 finishes in that time. Victor won top amateur back in 2019 here when he finished T32 & has had two solid finishes since finishing 27th & 21st. His short game always gets criticism from the pundits when he duffs a chip on TV but if you look at his short game stats he’s certainly been working on something 31st scrambling & 38th for Sand Save so certainly better than tour average. The confidence he will have after his recent form will be crucial this week, especially after a 3rd placed finish at The Players. He knows his game is in the best place it has been in the run up to a major.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 8th
Approach 27th
Tee to Green 15th
Around the Green 164th
Putting 79th
Form – 3/10/20/42/13
Course Form – 27/21/DNP/32
Sungjae Im 40-1 Paddy Power 10 Places
Sungjae will look to improve his best performance at Augusta this week by bettering his 2nd place finished in 2020. I still find it hard to believe he only has Two PGA tour wins to his name, the Honda Classic in 2020 & Shriners in 2021. The Korean star has three top 10s so far this season with one missed cut. Par 5 scoring is where the easier scoring holes are this week which can be the difference come the end of the week. All the par 5s are reachable in two depending on pin, tee placements & the wind. Sungjae ranks 3rd on tour for par 5 scoring averaging 4.39. Only Cantlay & Rahm are ahead in this category, but Sungjae has played fifty more par5s than them. If Sungjae can play steady enough on the par 3 & par 4s there is every chance, he can take apart the par 5s to post some good numbers.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 15th
Approach 62nd
Tee to Green 13th
Around the Green 30th
Putting 63rd
Form – 6/21/42/56/6
Course Form – 8/MC/2
Justin Rose 50-1 Paddy Power 10 Places
Rosey has been rejuvenated this season after a back injury plagued his 2022 season where he even had to miss the 150th Open championship. Now back to 100% within himself he has already picked up a win this year when he won the AT&T Pebble Beach just five starts ago. Since then, he has also had a 6th placed finish at the Players in one of the highest ranked fields of the year. Justin has clearly put in a great deal of work in on his game over the off season & he is reaping the rewards for this. The former world no1 has plenty of experience around here, this will be the eighteenth time he has teed it up at Augusta National. In those seventeen starts he has finished in the top 12 eight times including two 2nd place finishes. In 2021 he was the 1st round leader after shooting a 65 with seven birdies & an eagle which shows once he gets hot round here, he can go low.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 72nd
Approach 39th
Tee to Green 45th
Around the Green 101st
Putting 28th
Form – 36/6/MC/MC1
Course Form – MC/7/23/MC/12/2/10/2/14/25/8/11 up to 2011
Adrian Meronk 250-1 Paddy Power 10 Places
Meronk will be looking do something that hasn’t been done for a number of years & win the Masters on debut. With the predicted weather Meronk has the better chance of the guys down the pecking in order in the betting. This is down to his driving distance, with the softer fairways from the rain he will have shorter iron into the greens than what the shorter guys will have. He played solid in the match play & was only eliminated in a group playoff. He also finished T14 in the Honda classic & T45 at the Genesis, so he comes into the Masters with a very consistent game.
No strokes gained data available as he hasn’t had enough PGA tour starts. Stats taken from DP World tour.
Driving distance 303.39 160th
Greens in Regulation 76.49 13th
Putts per GIR 1.63 68th
Sand Saves 69 9th
Stroke Average 69.00 9th
Other notables
Rory McIlroy – there is nothing I’d love to see more this week than Rory completing the slam, but I just had to take Scottie over him this week.
Kazuki Higa – nearly my longshot pick for the week but I think his distance off the tee might be an issue especially given the conditions. Will be keeping a close eye on him.
Good Luck