The Valero Texas Open is the last chance for players not playing the Masters to punch a ticket to one of the pinnacles of the sport. For those eleven players already playing Augusta it’s the last chance for them to home in their game for the year’s first Major.
The Texas open has been the last event before the masters (Noncovid) for the last 3 years after moving back to the week before in 2019 having previously been the curtain raiser from 2013 – 2015 before it was moved again. It has been a yearly event on the PGA tour since 1956 stopping off at seven different venues.
TPC San Antonio has been the home for the now since 2010. It’s a very weak field that tee it up this week with just 8 of the top 50 in the world playing. The majority clearly all have eyes on next week. The previous winners of this show that it’s not always the cream the rises to the top with five triple-digit in betting terms winning here in ten events so as always the Texas Open is anybody’s to take home the $ 1.6 million & the new set of boots.
Valero Texas Open – The Course
This week’s location is TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course in San Antonio Texas. A 7438-yard course compiling of four par 3s measuring 183-241, ten par 4s measuring 342-481 & four par 5s measuring 567-604. The course is a Greg Norman Design with some input from Sergio Garcia. I’m surprised Jay Mohanan has allowed the tour play here after reading that. The Oaks is a parklands course with 64 bunkers,3 water hazards & tree-lined. The Greens are larger than tour average & is Poa overseeded. The fairways are a mix of wide & narrow so picking the right club off the tee will be crucial to find those all-important landing strips. There is potential for a grandstand finish here with the drivable par 4 17th & the risk-reward par 5 18th.
Previous Winning Stats
2022
Winner – JJ Spaun -13
Odds 175-1
Strokes Gained
Off the Tee 10th
Approach 23rd
Tee to Green 5th
Around the Green 13th
Putting 17th
2021
Winner – Jordan Spieth -18
Odds 10-1
Strokes Gained
Off the Tee 10th
Approach 23rd
Tee to Green 5th
Around the Green 13th
Putting 17th
2020 (Korn Ferry)
Winner – Davis Riley -16
Odds 35-1
2019
Winner – Corey Conners -20
Odds 175-1
Strokes Gained
Off the Tee 4th
Approach 1st
Tee to Green 2nd
Around the Green 58th
Putting 26th
2018
Winner – Andrew Landry -17
Odds 200-1
Strokes Gained
Off the Tee 9th
Approach 1st
Tee to Green 1st
Around the Green 33rd
Putting 8th
2017
Winner – Kevin Chappell -12
Odds 28-1
Strokes Gained
Off the Tee 4th
Approach 2nd
Tee to Green 2nd
Around the Green 32nd
Putting 21st
Average Winning Stats
Winning Score -16
Odds 103-1
Strokes Gained
Off the Tee 13th
Approach 6th
Tee to Green 3rd
Around the Green 28th
Putting 16t
Top 5 players playing this week per category
Off the Tee; Buckley, Hatton, List, Grant & D.Thompson
Approach; Hatton, Fowler ,Bhatia, Knox & Hardy
Tee to Green; Hatton l, Fowler, Kuchar, List & N.Taylor
Around the Green; Wallace, An ,Bezuidenhout, Matsuyama & Griffin
Putting; Montgomery, Ryder, Hall, B.Taylor & Putnam
Valero Texas Open – Picks
Matt Kuchar 28-1
Kuch comes back to a venue where he typically plays very well. He is yet to miss a cut here in 10 starts with three top 10 finishes & a best finish of 2nd last year. The 44-year-old is fresh off a last 16 finish at the match play after progressing through his group & equalling Tiger Woods record of most match play victories in the process. Matt is winless on the PGA tour since the Sony Open in 2019, he does have win on the Asian tour in 2020 but he will be looking to pick up his first PGA tour win in a number of years this week. He has made steady progress back into the top 100 in the world over the last two years & now sits 66th.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 67th
Approach 63rd
Tee to Green 27th
Around the Green 18th
Putting 74th
Form – 16/MC/MC/8/32
Course Form – 2/12/7/51/40
Nicolai Hojgaard 50-1 PaddyPower
Nicolai got into this week field with a 2nd place finished last week at the Corales where he shot 71-65-66-68 to finish just one shot behind Matt Wallace. He will be looking to go one better this week & punch a ticket to Augusta. He is 6 events into his schedule which has seen him jet setting over the world, he’s played in Australia Dubai, Thailand, India & now finds himself stateside. During those events he hasn’t finished lower than T38 which shows his game is in a fantastic place. The Dane has had four top 15 finishes in six starts with a best of 2nd last week. With this week’s course being well over 7400 yards & four par 5s to play with I believe Nicolai is set for another great week on the PGA tour.
No Strokes gained Data as he has just 1 PGA tour start. Data taken from last week
Driving Accuracy 67.07% 56th
Greens in Regulation 80.56% 1st
Scrambling 64.29% T42
Putts per GIR 1.655 6th
Form – 2/32/5/13/38
Course Form – Debut
Sam Stevens 80-1
It wasn’t to be last week for the PGA tour rookie who was looking to secure his maiden tour win. He finished with a final round 69 to finish just two shots being Wallace after sharing the
lead after 54 holes. The Oklahoma state grad had just six blemishes over all four days on his cards which shows he is in complete control of his game right now heading into this week. His Greens in reg stats back up this with his GIR for the seasons sitting 26ht at 69.31%. Add his proximity season stat of 35’10 in 20th to the equation & you have to wonder why he hasn’t been in contention more than he has. It can only be down to his putting which he ranks 110th where he is losing strokes to the tour. If he can have another week like last week with the flat stick where he ranked T10 Putts per GIR then he can certainly be there or there abouts come Sunday afternoon
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 30th
Approach 137th
Tee to Green 84th
Around the Green 118th
Putting 110th
Form – 3/MC/15/MC/34
Course Form – Debut
Kevin Chappell 175-1 Bet365 (EW Extra)
Kevin’s only PGA tour victory came here in 2017. I remember it well as I was on him at just 28-1 that week & 2nd placed Brooks Koepka. After struggling to regain the form of 2017 which saw him as high as 26th in the world ranking he has been trending as of late in the right direction. Since his back surgery in 2018 for a microdiscectomy he hasn’t had the best of times missing numerous cuts, Covid happened & he has another injury setback.
There have been positives however he did shoot a 59 in 2019 at the Greenbrier & on a form note comes into this week on his best run for several years. In his last 3 starts he has finished 29th 15th & 16th, its only a matter of time before he breaks back into the top 10. This week is the perfect opportunity for him, it’s a course he clearly likes & has plenty of experience here. Chappell has 11 starts here with various results but does have the win from 2017, a 2nd in 2011 & 18th last year.
Strokes Gained Rank
Off the Tee 155th
Approach 114th
Tee to Green 130th
Around the Green 74th
Putting 107th
Form – 16/15/29/MC/MC
Course Form – 18/MC/DNP/30/1
Other notables
Rickie Fowler – I really wanted to take Rickie this week but at 18s its simply too short of number to be certain of getting a win.
Davis Riley – Won a Korn ferry event at this course in 2020 & in good form but not the right number for me at 25-1
Kevin Roy – very close to putting him as my outsider this week his approach game stat wise is fantastic for someone that high in the betting. Some books have him at 500-1 this week. He could be worth a top 20 bet at 12-1?
Good Luck