Valspar Championship 2023 – Betting Preview & Tips

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Before we dive into the Valspar Championship 2023, last week, Tyrrell Hatton finishes solo 2nd to place for us at odds of 30/1. A magnificent 29 shots he played his last 9 holes in to rally home to claim the position. It was looking to be a nice number sitting in the clubhouse, but step forward Scottie Scheffler who surged to a 5-shot victory and claimed the World Number 1 position. A superb golfer, winning a superb Championship.

There is no Waggle Duff Fantasy Golf this week, but if you are betting, please bet responsibly and enjoy this betting preview for the Valspar Championship by JS_GolfingTips

Valspar Championship 2023

Our last stop on the Florida swing takes the players a 4-hour drive back down the coast to Palm Harbour, where they’ll compete this week on the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. The Florida swing consists of some massive tournaments and I still consider the Valspar to be one of them at the Copperhead course is no pushover and promises to play long and tough as it usually does.

Copperhead Course @ Innisbrook Resort

  1. Par 71, 7320 yards
  2. Larry Packard design
  3. Bermuda greens wth an overseed of Poa Trivialis
  4. 5 x Par 3s – ranging from 195-235 yards
  5. 9 x Par 4s – ranging from 380-475 yards
  6. 4 x Par 5s – ranging from 560-605 yards
  7. Shot shapers course
  8. Holes with water – 9
  9. Tough set of Par 3s/4s

The first 5 holes at Copperhead will grip the player’s attention immediately at the Valspar Championship.

The first is a 565-yard Par 5. Now, that doesn’t sound a lot but the players will be forced to hit something other than the driver off the tee if they want to set themselves up nicely for their second shot. Which is around 310 yards to the first fairway bunker, so the bombers may try and clear that. However, the fairway narrows close to and past that bunker, so they will still have to be accurate.

The second hole is a 435 par 4 dog left right to left. Which again will require a potential 3 wood from the tee. If players are greedy and pull the driver out here, there is a huge lake on the right-hand side. Which comes into play if they push their tee shot. 

On the third hole, the players arrive at a 455-yard par 4. Anything less than driver again is required off the tee. At around 300 yards the fairway dog legs quite harshly to the right. The very narrow fairway runs in between 2 water hazards, so a 3/5 wood for position off the tee to set the players up for a comfortable 180-yard approx. approach.

The guy’s long iron game will then be tested at a heavily bunkered 195-yard Par 3. Hitting into a slim green!

Then they arrive at a mammoth 605-yard uphill par 5. Usually, into the wind, the fairway bunker on the right of the fairway that sits at 290 yards will be more than in play for the guys and will require an accurate tee shot if they wanted to capitalize here. A 3 shorter for all the players this week just like most of the Par 5s here at Copperhead.

Summary of The Course

Overall, the fairways at the Valspar Championship are narrow and tree-lined. Therefore, players are forced time and time again to lay up off the tee and the players are forced to move the ball both ways around this course. The keepers’ of the course have let the Bermuda Rough grow slightly thicker this year. This will provide a slightly different spectacle from what we have seen previously. Therefore, magnifying driving accuracy and course management even further.

Previous Winners and their Performance Stats at The Valspar Championship

2022 Winner – Sam Burns -17
56th OTT 4th T2G 13th GIR 3rd APP 40th SCR 1st PA

2021 Winner – Sam Burns -17
16th OTT 5th T2G 35th GIR 14th APP 30th SCR 2nd PA

2019 Winner – Paul Casey -8
6th OTT 1st T2G 5th GIR 7th APP 47th SCR 5th PA

2018 Winner – Paul Casey -10
50th OTT 6th T2G 30th GIR 7th APP 3rd SCR 7th PA

2017 Winner – Adam Hadwin -14
47th OTT 5th T2G 5th GIR 2nd APP 7th SCR 2nd PA

2016 Winner – Charl Schwartzel –
52nd OTT 4th T2G 10th GIR 3rd APP 45th SCR 2nd PA

Average stats for the past 6 winners – Average Score -11
40th OTT 4th T2G 16th GIR 6th APP 32th SCR 3rd PA

Summary/Stats to consider

  • SG: OTT/T2G/APP
  • Putting Averages on Poa Trivialis greens (firm and fast)
  • Par 3/5 scoring
  • Good experience here 

As you can see, in the last 4 renewals we have had 2 defending champions come back to Copperhead and defend their titles! This must mean something from a tipping point of view, if this place fits a certain players eye, then carrying on backing them!

SG:OTT/SG: T2G/SG: Approach are stats I will look at as a whole.Rreaders may feel that this is very much of a cop-out as I am spreading my opinion out over 3 main Strokes Gained stats. However, looking at what I have stated above about the course (first 5 holes in particular) it demands a great deal from the players this week from Tee2Green.

A positional drive needed, whether that’s with the Driver or with a long Iron, and then finding these large greens in regulation and within good proximity to these holes is the biggest challenge the guys will face this week, if the weather behaves like it has the past few years, the greens will dry up lovely the really test the players to hold the greens. Then performing well on them is clearly a trait the guys that have been successful here have excelled in, an average of 3rd in Putting Average for the last 6 winners of this tournament is evidence of this.

On a layout where there are just 9 Par 4s, we will turn our attention to guys that have really excelled on the Par3s and 5s regularly this season. A demanding set of Par 3s will make the players grind their Pars out for sure, with water lurking on 2 of them and the other 3 demand at least a 5/6 iron off the tee for these guys, in terms of a set of Par 3s we see on your average PGA Tour event, they are consistently some of the longest we see out here. The Par 5s this week are all scorable indeed with 3 out of 4 of them easily reachable in 2, so expect birdies and eagles aplenty! So focus will be turned to guys who do this regularly!

Selections

5 1pt each way tips again for you all this week! All took at 8 places with Boyle Sports unless stated in brackets! Good luck all.


Matt Fitzpatrick 16/1 (6)
Justin Rose 22/1 (6)
Ben Griffin 35/1
Alex Smalley 60/1
Matt NeSmith 100/1

About The Author

Started on twitter as a low key Golf punter. Progressed into a successful Golf podcast where we interviewed numerous professional guests and previewed every tournament on the PGA Tour/DP World Tour for 2 years. Have since wrote Betting Preview for an Odds Comparison company where I have consistently return profit over 18 months.

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