Before we explore the Bermuda Championship. Last week we did ok, another place with Kitayama & Jazz over in Mallorca. The Kitayama one was a tough pill to swallow, as he looked in place from halfway through his Friday round.
A number of times now Kitty has hung around though. I remember when he battled Rahm in Mexico he just stuck with the pace, despite looking loose in places. I’m not sure about you but I watch his swing and sometimes I worry about the big block. Although a solid week for him again and another place for us!
Certainly for the hard and fast courses, I will be back on Kitty. We ended the week +2.5u and move on to the Bermuda & Portugal Masters.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Firstly, this Bermuda Championship field sucks. A combination of unreasonable recent travel for the tour (West Coast, East Coast & Japan in 3 weeks) and players wanting a break as we enter the winter period means we have a reduced field. I guess the players need a break at some point and Rory McIlory has called for one this week.
I also saw a cracking tweet yesterday, whereby the bookies were offering odds “Without Denny McCarthy.”
The course, Porta Royal in Burmuda, is a smidge shorter than the usual, at 6828 yards, and is played on a particular type of grass… any guesses?
Last time out we saw LUCAS HERBERT win as the seaside course was battered by the Atlantic wind. Lucas is a big hitter, and certainly, a route of betting this week could be bombers and putters.
As a European, there are a couple of subplots I am interested in tracking. ADRIAN MERONK, the reputable DP World Tour player makes his first PGA Tour start. Looking at his DP performances I am not sure this course suits him but it will be great to see how he goes.
Aaron Rai has been a little out of form but has been slowly building his PGA Tour credentials. Finally, we see JOHN DALY and TOMMY 2 Gloves teeing it up. It’s as exciting as it can get.
The Winning Formula
Disclaimer – my process and analysis is unique to me. I will go through my favoured stats and players based on my experiences watching and betting them. Any additional credit goes to LOST FORE WORDS Podcast & INSIDE GOLF podcast when they run episodes, also to rickrungood.com where I pay for stats to play with. This article is for entertainment, and should be taken as such!
BRANDON TODD & LUCAS HERBERT have won the Bermuda Championship which enters its 4th year. These are two very different styles. The key this week, and what I will be doing is betting late. Play was stopped last year as PATRICK REED was coming through the field due to the high winds. With 48 hours to go, it looks like PM starters on Thursday & definitely Friday will be battling rain.
This course is very exposed, therefore, I will take my 5 picks below and make any late tweaks if required. My initial picks are based on my formula (stats I pick and form).
What can be drawn from the data we have is that Driving Accuracy and Putting are the two leading stats, ranking 14th and 10th out of 44 courses correlated. This leads me straight to AARON RAI, who is picking up a shot on the field, based on his previous 24 rounds. As stated he isn’t in the best of form but with a weaker field, I am sure he sees this as an opportunity to compete toward the top of the leaderboard.
Another player who is picking up a shot in both fields when on a correlated course is SCOTT BROWN. Don’t be fooled, he has many holes in his game of late, and returns to action following a WD, T54, and a MC.
However, looking at which courses get the best of his game, you will find Port Royal & Sea Island inside his top 5, in terms of strokes gained data. I am not convinced with BROWN simply because he’s not scoring and the 250/1 odds back that up.
I will certainly be considering JUSTIN LOWER, with the same method. Justin ticks the boxes in terms of strokes gained OTT and with the putter. He also enters in far better form, a T20 at the Shriners, T45 in the Sandersons & T4 at the Fortinet Championship. LOWER also finished with a T20 in 2021at this tournament and has several good finishes at Seaside courses, including a T6 on the KFT at the Lecom Coast Classic last year.
Finally, when it comes to form, due to the weaker field, it’s important to note players with T30 and T40 finishes in recent weeks. This is the standard that you will find.
WHO IS LEADING THE STATS I LIKE
Looking more holistically at good drivers of the ball (strokes gained off the tee is my focus this week), the leaders based on their previous 50 rounds are (all stats are taken and give credit to rickrungood.com – an unbelievable tool!)
- Kevin Yu
- Adrian Meronk
- Trevor Cone
- Will Gordon
- Patrick Rodgers
In terms of players that enter today with the best putting record (again over their previous 50 rounds).
- Eric Cole
- SH Kim
- Dennis McCarthy (Favourite)
- Scott Brown
- Adrian Meronk
Looking further down the list of players that are gaining +0.4 or more on the field on the putting green, some of which are striking the ball well, (again over 50 rounds for continuity).
- Mark Hubbard, +0.77 in approach
- Chesson Hadley +0.45 in approach
- Adam Long + 0.33 in approach
- Robby Shelton +0.43 around the green, +0.54 T2G & 1.42 overall
Finally, form is a little more challenging to work through this week. Many players do have big gaps from taking a break and with big players missing the typical T10 or T20 trains we look for are few and far between.
THOMAS DETRY has a T10 at the Sandersons and a T20 at the Fortinet. SH KIM has a T20 at the Sandersons, which was backed up a week later on the ZOZO with a T4. Finally, PATRICK ROGERS was 16th placed on his last time out at the ZOZO and finished 4th here last year.
Bermuda Championship Weather
It will be warm as expected but recent reports indicate rain incoming on both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Herbert did the damage with a 65 on Friday & Saturday when the course was at its easiest, after the wind had blown on Thursday.
The wind appears to be at its peak at 17mph on Friday, this is certainly playable, but I will monitor the rain and possible storms tomorrow.
Waggle Duff this week is on the DP World Tour, and you can pick a team of 5 and submit for free on the link here! Good luck if you wish to play.
Picks – EW 6 on BOYLE SPORTS
PATRICK ROGERS 25/1
JUSTIN LOWER 28/1
ROBBY SHELTON 40/1
GARRICK HIGGO 50/1
SCOTT BROWN 250/1
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Matt Tizzard is a “former” +1 Golfer, currently drifting between 0 and 4! Usually found behind the laptop as a specialist Golf Writer and founder of Waggle Duff. Matt is an expert in tournament previews, player interviewing and equipment reviews across the golf industry. Not a tipster, but a golf data fanatic who shares his thoughts! Matt has featured on Golf Podcasts, YouTube Channels and written hundreds of articles for many golf publishers. You can find out more about Matt’s work here.