WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PREVIEW by @NelsonsGolfTips
WELLS FARGO – THE COURSE – TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm
We now head to a venue that hasn’t been seen for some time, the last tournament played here was the 2018 Quickens Loans in which Francesco Molinari prevailed by eight shots.
There have been many PGA tournaments played here, two Quicken Loans and many more played in different guises.
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is a par 70, 7,107 yards, it’s located in Maryland, a suburb northwest of Washington, DC.
The course was designed in 1986 by Ed Ault, Tom Clark & Ed Sneed and re-designed in 2007 by Stephen Wenzloff & Jim Hardy.
Some feature holes were renovated, the sixth hole was a poor copy of the 13th at Augusta and was changed to a long par 4. The par 3 ninth famously suggested to be blown up by no other than Greg Norman was rebuilt up a hill, near old practice green.
The 10th and 11th holes have been combined to into a new tenth, a long par five playing around the restored creek feature. There are four par 3s and only 2 par 5s, with the rest par4s, the longest hole is the 2nd avg 619 par 5. The course is tree-lined with several holes with water coming into play, and at least two doglegs.
The greens and fairways are both Bentgrass, the course record is 62.
HISTORY
PAST TEN WINNERS
2021 Mcllroy –274
2020 Cancelled
2019 Homa –269
2018 Day – 272
2017 Harman – 278
2016 Hahn- 279
2015 Mcllroy – 267
2014 Holmes- 274
2013 Ernst – 280
2012 Fowler- 274
2011 Glover – 273
The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 under the name of the Wachovia Championship, and Quail Hollow in 2009-2010. This year were playing a new venue for the Wells Fargo Championship, TPC Potomac, there have been many tournaments played here.
ANGLE
This course was a regular stop on the PGA Tour as the host of the Boozy Allen Classic (originally Kemper Open).
Looking back through the past winners, its apparent that you don’t have to be a big hitter to win, but what you do need is strong iron play and accuracy off the tee.
When Molinari won here in 2018 he won with stats of 1st SGAPP +2.60 1st SGT2G +4.33 AND +2.60 total, in round 4 he gained +5.80 SGT2G.
Stanley gained in similar style with 4th SGAPP +1.71 1st SGOTT +1.46 and 1st SGT2G +3.40, +3.12 total.
So, I don’t want to state the obvious but I will be definitely siding with the stats that are on show.
WELLS FARGO – TIPS & PICKS
CONNERS 16/1 3PTS EW –10pls boyle sp
Corey hasn’t been seen since the heritage where he was 18th, he also posted a good number at the Masters where he T12th.
This course should suit his game, with his straight driving and his pin point irons, it sets up for a good weekend, and hopefully his first Wells Fargo.
Conners has had four top ten at the Masters, which has the same greens- bent grass, it might seem insignificant, but if you can putt good at Augusta then the flat stick is no problem. His last five round reads as Heritage T12-Masters T6th- Texas T35- WGC 3rd – Players T26th.
His stats show as, YTD SGT2G 13th –SGOTT 6th –SGAPP 33rd – SGARG T105th- GSPUTT T105th, and at the heritage where he last played SGAPP 13th SGT2G 18th.
Think the stats are impressive enough to win this twinned with his like for Bent grass.
TONY FINAU 16/1 2PTS EW BOYLE SPORTS
Big Tony just missed out on by two shots after a cracking 63 in the last round at the Mexico Open.
Tony has made a steady start to the year, but looking at the stats his driving accuracy has been letting him down, this week he was 1st in SGAPP and 2nd in SGT2G. There are many positives to take out of his recent performances and he’s looking like the old tony we know and love.
His last five tournaments read as Mexico T2 – Heritage T12- Masters T35- Players T26- Texas T29
MARK LEISHMAN 25/1 2PT EW BOYLE SP
Mark Leishman has been quiet for too long, but of late. Hes showing signs of the old Aussie.
Mark is still in the world top 50; he hasn’t won on the PGA since 2020 where he won at the farmers. The Farmers has bent grass the same greens Potomac which could be significant also Augusta has the same where Leishman has had some success.
Leishman stats for the year so far stand as 3 top 20s with him recently T30 at the masters and T35 at the WGC.
His stats SGT2G are 46th and SGAPP 46th this year but the reason I’m hedging my bets on him is that he has good course form 2018 T13- 2017 T5th.
SEPP STRAKA 45/1 1PT EW BOYLE SPORTS
Sepp has made an amazing start and transformation in his game this year, after his maiden win at the Honda Classic, he snatched victory from Lowry on the eighteenth with a birdie.
His performances this year have been great, only missing one cut, and he has three top ten, Hes now moved into 53rd in the world, jumping 145 places.
His numbers are probably not where I want them, but as iterated earlier I think SGT2T and SGAPP are important this year, his numbers read SGT2G 105TH –SGAPP 119th but at the heritage when he last played, he was 6th and 33rd respectively.
As shown in recent tournaments double winner in a calendar year is common now.
KEGAN BRADLEY 30/1 1PT EW BOYLE SP
Kegan is showing signs of the man who won the PGA Championship in 2011, it’s been a while since he won, four years to be exact.
He has posted some solid numbers this year, with four top 20s and only one missed cut, Kegan has won on Bent grass before so that’s a plus.
His last five tournaments read as Texas T8th- WGCT-T35- Valspar MC- Player’s 5th – API T11.
His stats this year are 24th SGAPP and 10th SGT2G, Kegan has shown a liking to this course T5th in 2017, a definite plus for me.
We’re taking a leap of faith this year with Kang, prior to his T51st at the Mexico Open he had four missed cuts, but still has two top 20s this year.
Kang has taken a liking to the TPC Potomac with him 3rd in 2017 and T5th in 2018, Hes also won at the Byron Nelson which also has Bent grass.
The stats from the Mexico Open show he was 17th SGAPP and 28th SGT2G, so there you have it, I’m definitely taking a punt with him.
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