GENESIS INVITATIONAL PREVIEW & BETTING TIPS

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The west coast swing makes its final stop at historic Riviera Country club. The Genesis invitational is thought to be one of the best tournaments of the year.

Course Riviera Country Club

The Riviera was designed by George C. Thomas Jr and William P. Bell. It’s a par 71 measuring 7,322 yards. The fairways and rough consist of kikuyu grass and the greens are Poa annua. There are also tight tree lined fairways so accuracy is key off the tee, but if it is wet conditions it can then become a driving fest. The Genesis Invitational normally entices the big guns in the top 20, with no other than at least eight of the top ten here religiously every year, including Dustin Johnson who hasn’t missed playing here from the start of the Genesis. Looking at the course historically the first hole is the easiest on the course and most of would be disappointed if they walked off with a par. The risk and reward hole 10th is drivable at 315 yards, it’s a good eagle opportunity but if you miss on the wrong side then a bogey is a possibility, the great Tiger Woods once said it’s the coolest par 4 we’ll play.

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THE LAST TEN WINNERS

2012 HAAS -7 won play off. stats SG TTG 31st/ SG OTT 50th/ SG GIR T58 /SG APR 51st/ SG PUTT 3rd.

2013 MERRICK -11 won play off. stats SG TTG 1st/ SG OTT 37th/ SG GIR T23/ SG APR 7th/ SG PUTT 15th

2014 WATSON -15 SG TTG 1st/ SG OTT 1st/ SG GIR 11th/ SG APR 16th/ SG PUTT 20th.

2015 HAHN -6 won play off. stats SG TTG 2nd/ SG OTT 7th/ SG GIR T28/ SG APR 22nd/ SG PUTT 50th.

2016 WATSON -15 stats SG TTG 5th/ SG OTT 16th/ SG GIR T7/ SG APR 3rd/ SG PUTT 11th.

2017 JOHNSON -17 stats SG TTG 8th/ SG OTT 2nd/ SG GIR 1st/ SG APR 20th/ SG PUTT 3rd.

2018 WATSON -12 stats SG TTG 2nd/ SG OTT 17th/ SG GIR T7/ SG APR 11th/ SG PUTT 21st.

2019 HOLMES -14 stats SG TTG 11th/ SG OTT T31/ SG GIR T2/ SG APR 6th/ SG PUTT 1st.

2020 SCOTT -11 stats SG TTG 3rd/ SG OTT 17th/ SG GIR 26th/ SG APR 3rd/ SG PUTT 27th.

2021 HOMA -12 won play off. stats SG TTG 3rd/ SG OTT 2nd/ SG GIR T5/ SG APR 21st/ SG PUTT 7th.

When trying to find any connection with past winners and places players, it becomes clear that previous course form is quite relevant. Before he won last year, Homa previously posted T5th in the year before and T37 in 2019. Adam Scott, 2020 winner was another who posted a top ten the year before he won. Johnson posted a 4th in 2016 the year before he won, highlighting what i said about course form. Another connection I found is that recent form, which again can be considered, is as important as course form. The stats speak for themselves, the winner posted no worse than T29 at the event before they won at Riviera, only Bubba Watson and J B Holmes are the exceptions, two weeks before Genesis they posted a top 20, so were back to recent form as a plus, Max Homa posted T7 at Pebble the week before his win, Scott won at the Australian Open the week before, Johnson posted 3rd at Pebble the week before his 2017 win, 2015 Hahn was 29th the week before his win, Watson was T2 in 4014 the event before his win, Merrick in 2103 was T16 the week before his win and Haas was T19 the event before his win at Riviera. so as you can see recent form with course form is a must especially if you want to find the winner. looking at the stats SG TTG is showing as a definite starting point, only Holmes 11th and Haas 31st are out of the top 10 in SG TTG, two other good ones are SG GIR and SG APR, most of the last ten winners have posted inside top 30, only Hass is the exception.

WEATHER

Over the four days the weather is forecast sunny Thursday and Friday, Saturday and Sunday sunny with overcast at times, the wind will be between 5-10 mph.

PICKS

RAHM 9/1 2PTS WIN BET 365

John is going through a lean spell, being world number one comes with a hefty weight on your shoulders, his recent form is half decent, he has three top tens and a T14 at the Amex, his stats for his T10 at the Phoenix Open reads SG OTT 1st, SG TTG 3rd, SG GIR 2nd, his putting stats are 58th which as you can see is letting him down, but his driving and iron play is still solid and that’s what he needs to win this, he also has a good record here with two top tens, his last win came in the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2021, it’s time to show the world why he is the best player on the planet..

SCHAUFFLE 22/1 2PTS EW PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

Zander has had a good Phoenix Open just falling short by a shot, he only had two bogeys over the four rounds, it sets him up nicely for the Genesis Open, his stats for last week was 8th SG OTT, 1st TTG, 9th APR, 1st GIR, 5th SCRAMBLING, his recent form is T34 Farmer and 12th at the Sentry, his last win came in the Olympics in 2021 in Japan, which he dedicated it to his father who has dedicated his life in making Zander the golfer he is today, he’s started year with a glint in his eye and looks like the Zander of old, banging in the wedges for tap in birdies, guaranteed it won’t, be long before he gets another win on the tour, overall he’s back to his best doing what he used to, hitting long straight drives and dialing in his wedges.

WILL ZALATORIS 28/1 2PTS EW PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

What can we say apart from like Scotty Scheffler this man should already have his first win, but as you know getting your first win on the tour is tough due to the talent that your up against, can Will make it two first time winners in a row, I hope so, he’s made a solid start to the year with two top tens, a T6th at the Amex and 2nd in the Farmer, his driving stats are where you want them to be, after the Farmer he was 1st TTG, 13th OTT, 1st APR, 10th GIR and 145 putting, as you can see the flat stick needs some attention and with the time off I’ve no doubt he’s been working on it, I will be surprised not to see him in the top ten come Sunday.

FITZPATRICK 33/1 2PTS EW PADDY POWER 1/5 ODDS

Matt has made a good start to the season posting a T6th at the AT&T at Pebble Beach, stats for the tournament reads SG TTG 19th, SG GIR 30th, SG PUTT 2nd gaining 1.193 on the field, he then went on to post a T10 at the Phoenix Open, stats there was SG OTT 22nd, SG TTG 11th, SG APR 8th, SG GIR T47 and 30th in Putting, with a final round of 67, Matt’s still looking for his first PGA Tour win, he last won on the DP World Tour in 2021 at the famous and hard Valderrama golf course in the Andalucia Masters, Matt’s game is trending in the right direction twinned with his T5th at Riviera it’s got to give him a good chance.

HOMA 40/1 0.5 PTS EW WILLIAM HILL 1/5 ODDS

Max is the winner of last year’s event with a score of -12 and winning it in a play off with the unlucky Tony Finau, this season he’s only played in three events and one of them he missed the cut, but he has posted two top 20s with a 15th at the Sentry and 14th at the Waste Management, posting stats of 5th OTT, 27th TTG, 39th APR, T23 GIR and 16th in PUTT, Max is showing some of his old form and if he gets his approach game in order then watch out, moustache or no moustache he’s still in the top 50 and he’s top draw.

preview by @NelsonsGolfTips.