The final stop on the PGA Tour for the 2021 regular season is here! After this week, the PGA Tour will begin its three-tournament playoff event. The field is relatively weak, as the best players are resting up for the playoffs. Sedgefield Country Club is consistently one of the easiest courses on Tour. Players need to be prepared for a birdie-fest and scoring is the name of the game this week.
Sedgefield Country Club is a short Par 70, measuring slightly above 7,100 yards. As a Par 70 there are only two Par 5s. The Donald Ross-designed course, is a traditional Carolina style course with tree-lined fairways and undulating greens. The fairways are not overly wide but they are still easy to hit. Hitting greens has traditionally been easier here than the average Tour stop, so players will have plenty of opportunities. With greens being so easy to hit, and the winning score being so low I have completely eliminated Around-the-Green/Scrambling from all of my models.
Former winners of this event are Jim Herman, J.T. Poston, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, and Si Woo Kim. All five winners were either -21 or -22 which shows just how easy this course can play. The key will be scoring on all holes, especially the Par 5s. Despite there being only eight Par 5s throughout the tournament, the last five winners were all -7 or better on those holes. Eagles are there for the taking so players who play with a controlled aggression is what I am looking for. The last five winners were all ranked #4 or better the week they won in strokes gained Approach. Strong Approach play, hitting almost every green, and finding just enough magic with the putter has been the blueprint for success.
Six of the past ten winners were in the triple digits of the betting odds. When courses are easy, every player can contend. This is the type of week where you can take some shots deeper down the odds board and target golfers who have flashed signs of elite scoring upside. I am also targeting players who have been successful on Par 70s such as TPC River Highlands, PGA National, and Wai’alae.
Key Stats: Approach, GIR Gained, Good Drives Gained, 3-Putt Avoidance, Proximity 150-175 yards
Scoring Upside: Par 4 Efficiency (400-450 yards), Par 4 Birdie-or-Better, Par 5 Birdie-or-Better, Opportunities Gained, Birdies-or-Better Gained
Wyndham Championship Betting Tips
Russell Henley 35-1
Russell Henley is one of the best Approach players on Tour and this is a good setup for Henley’s skillset. Henley is an accurate player who lives in the fairways and hits a lot of Greens-in-Regulation. The 32-year-old has three PGA Tour wins, with two of those wins coming on a Par 70 course. This season, Henley has played three events on a Par 70 course (Majors excluded), and he has finishes of 3rd, 11th, and 19th. Henley excels on short Par 70s because he is able to dial up his irons and throw darts.
Henley has recorded three Top 20 finishes in his last four starts, with the one outlier being a missed cut at The Open Championship. Henley is the fourth ranked Approach player among all PGA Tour players, and sixth among all PGA Tour players in Par 4 Scoring Average. Over the past 24 rounds, in this field Henley ranks: second in Proximity from 150-175 yards, eighth in Approach, and 26th in Fairways Gained. Henley fits this course very well and his irons can carry him to the finish line this week.
Jhonny Vegas 55-1
Did someone say it’s an easy course? Jhonny Vegas loves himself a birdie-fest. Vegas is coming in with very good form. He has made his last nine straight cuts, with five Top 20s during that span. Vegas has the scoring upside to go low, highlighted by three consecutive events being double digits under Par.
Vegas is an elite driver of the golf ball, which allows him to have short wedges into greens where he creates a plethora of birdie opportunities. Over his last 24 rounds, in this field Vegas ranks: third in Tee-to-Green, fourth in Birdies-or-Better Gained, eleventh in Opportunities Gained, eleventh in Approach, and 13th in Strokes Gained on Par 5s. Vegas is an elite scorer and on an easy course in a relatively weak field there is value on him.
Mito Pereira 66-1
This season, at alternate events and easy scoring events I always save on spot on my card for an up-and-coming star. The Korn Ferry is extremely competitive right now, and these young players are being trained to go super low. Mito Pereira earned his PGA Tour card via the three-win promotion on the Korn Ferry Tour. Mito is no stranger to winning, and we have seen young players such as Garrick Higgo come on Tour and immediately win. Mito is an excellent ball-striker and during his limited PGA Tour experience he has flashed upside. Excluding the Barracuda, Mito is another player who has strung together three straight events going double digits under Par. The 26-year-old Chilean is a scoring machine and he is looking to capitalize on every PGA Tour opportunity that he gets. There is very limited strokes gained data on him due to his lack of experience on Tour, but Mito has shown to be a great Tee-to-Green player which should translate well this week.
Patton Kizzire 80-1
Patton Kizzire is a streaky player who can get red hot and go nuclear with his putter. Kizzire is a two-time PGA Tour winner, winning at scores of -17 and -19. One of those wins came at Wai’alae, a course that I think has some similarities to Sedgefield. Kizzire is not the most accurate player, but he still finds a way to get himself onto the Green. With the Greens this week being easy to hit, I think he has less pressure on his Off-the-Tee game which will allow him to go birdie hunting. In 26 starts this season, Kizzire has recorded five Top 10 finishes.
Over his last 24 rounds, in this field Kizzire ranks: first in Opportunities Gained, first in Birdies-or-Better Gained, and 17th on Strokes Gained on Par 5s. Kizzire is a top-tier birdie maker and if this week is all about scoring than he makes a lot of sense. Kizzire ranks third among all PGA Tour players in Par 4 Birdie-or-Better Percentage and with twelve Par 4s in store this week, Kizzire profiles well for this course.
Chris Kirk 140-1
This number is outrageous for Chris Kirk. I’ve seen him around 80-1 at most books, but Fanduel decided to almost double those odds. Kirk is a very streaky player, and his inconsistency makes him a tough golfer to project. However, volatility is a good thing for outright bets because his range of outcomes is so wide, he does have winning upside. Kirk has been out of form for the better part of two months. Former winners of this event have not always been in good form prior to their victories. I’m not saying to bet Kirk because he’s been bad, but this course is so easy and scorable that his bad form can completely turnaround for four days. Kirk doesn’t excel in any statistical category but he doesn’t lose strokes in any category either. He’s a very good Par 4 player, ranking sixth among all PGA Tour players in Par 4 Scoring Average. Kirk is ranked fourth among all PGA Tour players in Par 4 Efficiency from 400-450 yards, and there are eight holes this week that are of that distance according to the scorecard. This number was just too big for me to pass on and I believe Kirk can turn around his poor play this week.