Masters Trend Preview – Narrowing Down the Field

            The hallowed grounds of Augusta are upon us. The first Major of 2021 caps off a stretch of high-level golf events that featured two WGCs and the PLAYERS Championship. Every year, the Masters garners more attention from golf fans than any other golf event. Augusta is an immaculate course which challenges golfers to be both patient and aggressive. The winners of the Green Jackets have left behind a handful of trends for us bettors to discover. You can view my Masters Trend spreadsheet here. All of the trends I am about to discuss were found in this spreadsheet where I highlight certain similarities amongst the former winners.

Trend 1: 18 of the last 20 winners were ranked inside the OWGR Top 30. The last 10 winners were all ranked inside the OWGR Top 30.

Trend 2: 12 of the last 13 winners have recorded a Top 30 finish or better at Augusta within four years prior to their victory.

Trend 3: 17 of the last 20 winners recorded a Top 15 finish in one of their three most recent events immediately preceding their Masters victory.

Trend 4: Taking Trend 3 one step further, the last 9 winners have recorded a Top 10 finish in one of their five most recent events immediately preceding their Masters victory.

If you apply these four trends there are only 16 golfers who remain.

Brooks Koepka

  • OWGR: 11th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 7, 2, N/A, 11
  • Last 5 Events: 2, 38, 1, MC, MC

Bryson DeChambeau

  • OWGR: 5th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 34, 29, 38, N/A
  • Last 5 Events: 42,3, 1, 22, MC

Cameron Smith

  • OWGR: 30th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta:2, 51, 5, N/A
  • Last 5 Events: 28, 17, 11, 4, MC

Daniel Berger

  • OWGR: 15th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: N/A, N/A, 32, 27
  • Last 5 Events: 18, 9, 35, 1, MC

Jon Rahm

  • OWGR: 3rd
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 7, 9, 4, 27
  • Last 5 Events: 5, 9, 32, 5, 13

Justin Thomas

  • OWGR: 2nd
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 4, 12, 17, 22
  • Last 5 Events: 42, 1, 15, MC, 13

Lee Westwood

  • OWGR: 20th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 38, N/A, N/A, 18
  • Last 5 Events: 18, MC, 2, 2, 61

Louis Oosthuizen

  • OWGR: 28th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 23, 29, 12,41
  • Last 5 Events: 61, 46, 6, 11, 29

Matthew Fitzpatrick

  • OWGR: 16th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 46, 21, 38, 32
  • Last 5 Events: 18, 9, 10, 11, 5

Patrick Cantlay

  • OWGR: 10th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 17, 9, MC, N/A
  • Last 5 Events: 18, MC, 15, 3, 2

Paul Casey

  • OWGR: 18th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 38, MC, 15, 6
  • Last 5 Events: 28, 5, 10, 5, 8

Rory McIlroy

  • OWGR: 12th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 5, 21, 5, 7
  • Last 5 Events: 28, MC, 6, 42, 4

Scottie Scheffler

  • OWGR: 22nd
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 19, N/A, N/A, N/A
  • Last 5 Events: VTO N/A, 2, MC, 5, 20

Sungjae Im

  • OWGR: 19th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 2, N/A, N/A, N/A
  • Last 5 Events: 42, 8, 17, 21, 28

Tommy Fleetwood

  • OWGR: 24th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 19, 36, 17, MC
  • Last 5 Events: 5, MC, 10, 44, 37

Webb Simpson

  • OWGR 9th
  • Last 4 Years at Augusta: 10, 5, 20, MC
  • Last 5 Events: 28, MC, 6, 42, 4

If you wanted to decrease the player pool further you could remove Scottie Scheffler because each of the last 20 winners had already recorded a PGA Tour OR European Tour victory prior to their Masters victory.

There is one more trend that could be added to narrow down the player pool even further.

Trend 5: Over the last 20 years there have been 14 different people to win the Masters (Tiger won 4 times, Mickelson won 3 times, and Bubba has won twice). Out of those 14 golfers, 10 of them have won at one of these courses: Kapalua, Riviera, and Colonial

Out of the remaining 15 golfers, only two golfers have won on at least one of the mentioned courses.

Daniel Berger – Won at Colonial

Justin Thomas – Two wins at Kapalua

Justin Thomas is coming off of a victory at the PLAYERS Championship where he put on a clinic with his irons. Daniel Berger won at Pebble Beach four starts ago, and has been one of the most successful golfers since golf resumed last June. Winning recently is a good thing for these two golfers because 8 of the last 20 winners at the Masters recorded a victory in one of their five starts preceding their Masters victory.

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