Written by @MattTizzard for @WaggleDuff
WAGGLE DUFF fantasy golf returns to The PGA TOUR this week, you can see the format for the DELL WGC MATCHPLAY here.
Below is the betting preview for the KENYA SAVANNAH CLASSIC
KENYA SAVANNAH CLASSIC – BETTING PREVIEW
Déjà vu, here we are again. Karen Club, Kenya for our 2nd instalment of European Tour action from Africa. For the players, it’s a short 1-day break then back to it, as this event is run from TUESDAY – FRIDAY. The short 6900 course will again be a birdie fest, but we do expect some rain and maybe some storm delays on Tuesday.
I liked my plays last week, OTAEGUI, RAI and HANSEN threatened top 6 at times but didn’t quite get there. I did get carried away with covering a number of other players who were towards tiple digits. TONG LI withdrew and I will not continue my support, MOLINARI I poked at early Thursday morning, but he missed the cut.
I did catch HARDING after day 1 at 18/1 and I felt this was good value for money with SOUTH AFRICANS performing typically well. HARDING closed out a bogey free 66 to get the win on Sunday.
This week, I am going to go a little left wing away from the popular picks (RAI, HANSEN, VEERMAN) but give myself good value in returns. This course and field give you an opportunity to do. With many players threatening over the course of the MAGICAL KENYA OPEN.
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WHAT WE LEARNT FROM LAST WEEK
It is a short course and a birdie fest so being good off the Tee is key. Players that ripped apart the par 5’s and drove right down or on the short par 4s seemed to pick up the birdies necessary. The beast that is NIENABER ticks this box and is 33/1.
A lot of players can make the birdies on what is an easier course to climb the leaderboard. Again, I think this is a field to bet low but cover with many outsiders who have the game to potentially threaten, HEND gets there at 150/1.
I have a mix in my picks this week, although tempting to go with HARDING and KITAYAMA after last week, I am going to pass. I never like backing back-to-back winners and after watching KITAYAMA I did feel he was fighting his swing, particularly off the tee.
He was using his hands a lot through impact to flick the ball straight. I am not sure this is sustainable over another 4 days of tournament play, starting less than 48 hours after the MAGICAL KENYA OPEN.
SUMMARY OF PICKS
- Wilco NIENABER 33/1 – (0.5u)
- Niklas LEMKE 50/1 (0.75u E/W)
- Pep ANGLES 70/1 – (0.25u E/W)
- Soren KJELDSEN 125/1 – (0.25u E/W)
- Scott HEND 150/1 – (0.25u E/W)
OTHER PLAYERS CONSIDERED
- Justin HARDING
- Aaron RAI
- Adrian OTAEGUI
- Dean BURMESTER
KEY STATS
GIR
Putting
Birdie Performance
Last week’s performance indicator
THE COURSE
Parkland style, tight but not as tight as appears on TV
Small greens, pushes me towards GIR stats
Short course compared to most.
RECENT WINNERS MAGICAL KENYAN OPEN (PLAYED ON SAME COURSE)
2021 – Justin Harding
2019 – Guido Migliozzi
2018 – Lorenzo Gagli
2017 – Aaron Rai
2016 – Sebastian Soderberg
2015 – Haydn Porteous
2015 – Jake Roos
2013 – Jordi Garcia Pinto
2012 – Seve Benson
2011 – Mihiel Bothma
2010 – Robert Dinwiddie
Wilco NIENABER 33/1 – (0.5u)
Ticks the boxes for me off the Tee. Can rip the course apart if kept straight. A little undetected in his -10 total for last week, however constantly a popular pick and tip.
Niklas LEMKE 50/1 (0.75u E/W)
LEMKE came T33 last week, remember it is the same course, and this was his worst finish in his last 5 appearances. LEMKE’s recent finishes are T9 (Cyprus), T11 (Joburg Open), T8 (Dubai DP World), T9 (Qatar Masters).
He also made more than enough birdies to challenge last week, just made a number of mistakes. LEMKE is in good form and if he can go a step further can get inside the Top 6. A good each way bet at 50/1/
Pep ANGLES 70/1 – (0.25u E/W)
Solid performance last week finishing T8th. A good price of 70/1 for ANGLES and the game to show. ANGLES ticks the boxes with the length and accuracy of the Tee and kept it quite straight last week. He ranked 6th T2G on the Friday and he ranked 1st off the tee on the Saturday, which indicates the swing is in place.
His approach play let him down, and that was the difference between his performance and KITAYAMA, particularly in round 1, ANGLES ranked 101st in approach play.
ANGLES is a recent winner on the Challenge Tour and this course has historically been a Challenge Tour venue. That combined with a watered-down field for the European Tour, there is no reason he can’t go one better this week.
Soren KJELDSEN 125/1 – (0.25u E/W)
A little emotional pick, but I noticed KJLEDSEN T14 after round 1 last week. I also looked back at his cards and he only dropped 6 shots all week. Where he failed was taking advantages of the Par 5’s and short Par 4’s which the bigger hitters will do.
When play starts tomorrow there is a good chance that rain, and storms may come into play. Someone like KJELDSEN with his tight compact swing and the way he plots round the course could get himself into contention. Particularly if those conditions come into pay.
If he can have a hot week with the putter, KJLEDSEN will be in with a chance, he is always going to find the greens in regulation, just maybe with slightly longer putts!
Scott HEND 150/1 – (0.25u E/W)
Exceptional price, considering HEND was right up there until the last round. He closed with a 73.
Although let’s not ignore the previous 67, 64, 68.
Within that 68 he effectively dropped 4 shots on the field on the short par 4 10th and par 5 11th. The game is there to pick the sticks up tomorrow and compete.