MAGICAL KENYAN OPEN – BETTING PREVIEW
The European Tour heads to Africa now and begins with the Magical Kenya Open. Certainly, one from the B side of the European Tour schedule. This event has flicked between the Safari Tour, Challenge Tour and now European Tour . Still, we shake things up on WAGGLE DUFF and feature the Kenya Open this week.
There is a reason to put a case forward for many 3 digit players this week, its very exciting. Certainly a week to bet small and go for the higher odds players. I have tried to not get carried away, but you can make a case for and I have considered the following;
- McEvoy – Tweeted about him earlier! 150/1
- Kjeldsen – 150/1
- Lars Van Meijel 150/1
- Bjerregaard 175/1
- Rithammer 175/1
However, below is who I have backed. This week I have got a little emotional over OTAEGUI and TONG LI. I believe statistically the other 3 are good performers!
SUMMARY OF PICKS
- Louis De Jager – 55/1 – 1pt EW
- Joachim B Hansen – 40/1 pt EW
- Aaron Rai – 28/1 – 1pt EW
- Adrian Otaegui – 40/1 – 0.5pt EW
- Hao Tong Li – 125/1 – 0.5pt EW
Parkland style, tight but not as tight as appears on TV
Small greens, pushes me towards GIR stats
Short course compared to most.
2019 – Guido Migliozzi
2018 – Lorenzo Gagli
2017 – Aaron Rai
2016 – Sebastian Soderberg
2015 – Haydn Porteous
2015 – Jake Roos
2013 – Jordi Garcia Pinto
2012 – Seve Benson
2011 – Mihiel Bothma
2010 – Robert Dinwiddie
Louis De Jager 55/1 (1pt E/W)
Louis scored highest on the Golf Betting System model that I used for this event. He was also 4th on the official model used by Steve & Paul. The key difference is Driving accuracy will play a part in leading me towards some of my other picks below.
Louis flicks between African and European Tours, which I hope will put him right at home this week.
The South African doesn’t smash the trend of straight hitters, he’s a bit of a monster rather than someone that plots his way around the course. Yet, across the key stats of Driving, Approach, Putting, and Scrambling he has improved from 2019 into 2020.
He has made 9 of his last 10 cuts, which indicates the game is there He can now push on from the T10 in Cyprus late last year.
Joachim B Hansen 30/1 (1pt E/W)
I watched HANSEN at the BMW PGA last year and thought he looked excellent. Since then he has won the JOBURG OPEN and finished 9th last week in Qatar. Players in the typically do well here. I think HANSEN will relish returning to Africa and will be full of confidence come Thursday morning. He also smashes the ball striking stats, which will be important this week.
HANSEN had a good week last week and enters the Kenya Open in good form. His approach play was excellent, and this is a key stat for this week.
Aaron Rai – 28/1 (1pt E/W)
Ok, people know I like Rai a lot. Now using the GolfBettingSystem.com model, Aaron Rai ranks highly due to his putting stats.
Aaron also has a good finish this year, coming T18 in the Workday WGC, against the big boys may I add. A little like Adrian Otaegui he typically starts seasons slow and grows into them. I think this shift following such a good performance in a WGC event will give him a boost.
Aaron is great off the tee, good into the green and good with the putter. I have weighted GIR and putting as the key stats and he is 10th on my model.
Adrian Otaegui 40/1 (1pt E/W)
Ok, my last 2 picks are more on the gut then the stats. I know this isn’t what you read this for, but this is my justification! I would add, I was right with Spieth EW at the WASTE MANAGEMENT Phoenix Open a few weeks ago!
Apart from 2018, recent winners have been towards the -20 mark. What this means is players that can make birdies will do well, and we can look no further than Italian OTAEGUI. I said OTAEGUI starts seasons slow, and yet again he has. So potentially its now time to see him find a groove. Changing from the sandy Arabian courses to the more parkland Karen Club will suit him. There is also a correlation between tight Italian & Spanish courses and good performers in Kenya.
Adrian does frustrate me, in the last 3 weeks he has shot rounds in the 60s, so the game is there. It’s the consistency. I thought that given this week is a bit more of a parkland course, accuracy off the tee is important.
Either way, OTAEGUI has the long game and ranks 11th off the tee this season on Tour. He can certainly put himself in position. Also the KAREN CLUB isn’t the longest course on tour, which will suit his short, accurate play.
Everyone remembers what he did in Scotland, going crazy low to win. It’s in the locker and 40/1 against this field is a good bet.
Hao Tong Li – 125/1 (0.5pt E/W)
Before I start, Li is WELL OUT OF FORM but I have some justification.
It feels like Li has been kicking about for 10 years, well he actually has. He played when he was 14 in the Volvo China Open. This means now he is still only 25 years old, although he has a lot of experiences that can arm him for a big 2021. He’s played in all the majors, WGC and even in the Olympics. Between such events, he holds 6 wins across the European Tour, OneAsia Tour and PGA Tour China.
LI lead the PGA Championship last year by 2 strokes after round 1 last year. He has the experience and game to do well, despite a lack of form and maybe some motivation.
On paper, he doesn’t smash anything so more a gut pick. Either way, 125/1 is a ridiculous price! Surely if I stick with him his good week will come and we will have a lovely payout, right? (+EV pick?)