Arnold Palmer Invitational Trend Research

The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with a trip to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As an invitational, the field is shortened to 123 golfers. I will have a full event preview with my betting card posted later in the week. There are some interesting trends for the API this week that are worth considering. This is a reminder that trends exist in hindsight and are most likely not predictive, so I wouldn’t recommend betting on golfers solely because they fit into a trend.

Trend: The last 9 winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have recorded a T25 or better finish in one of their three most recent appearances at the event.

Trend: 7 of the last 9 winners have recorded a T5 or better finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at one point in their career.

Trend: 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the Top 40 Official World Golf Rankings heading into the week that they won.

Let’s look at the last 9 winners and what they have done at API prior to their victory.

Former Winners

Tyrrell Hatton (2020) –Hatton had played this event three times prior to his victory, finishing: 29^th, 69^th, and 4^th.

Francesco Molinari (2019) – Molinari had played this event six times prior to his victory, finishing: 26^th, 7^th, 9^th, 17^th, 5^th, and 34^th.

Rory McIlroy (2018) – Rory had played this event three times prior to his victory, finishing: 4^th, 27^th, and 11^th.

Marc Leishman (2017) – Leishman had played this event seven times prior to his victory, finishing: 17^th, MC, 31^st, MC, 48^th, 3^rd, and 40^th

Jason Day (2016) – Day had played this event five times prior to his victory, finishing: 17^th, 45^th, 25^th, WD, and MC.

Matt Every (2015) –Every had played this event five times prior to his second victory, finishing: 1^st, 34^th, 24^th, MC, and 52^nd.

Matt Every (2014) – Every had played this event four times prior to his victory, finishing: 34^th, 24^th, MC, and 52^nd.

Tiger Woods (2013) – Tiger has dominated this event in his career, prior to this victory he had finishes of: 1^st, 24^th, 1^st, 1^st, 22^nd, 20^th, 23^rd, 46^th, and 1^st.

Tiger Woods (2012) – Prior to his 2012 victory, Tiger had finishes of: 24^th, 1^st, 1^st, 22^nd, 20^th, 23^rd, 46^th, and 1^st.

2021 API Field

            When you look at the first trend, there are 49 golfers in the field this year who have recorded a T25 or better finish in one of their three most recent appearances. That doesn’t narrow down the field that much, so I won’t include all 49 golfers. If you are looking at a golfer and are curious if they’ve met that first trend, send me a tweet and I’ll let you know!

            When you combine the first two trends, (T25 in last 3 appearances + T5 or better in their career), the field is narrowed down to 23 golfers. Here is a list of those golfers:

• Rory McIlroy – Last three appearances have been: 5^th, 6^th, 1^st. Rory has played this event six times with three top 5 finishes.
• Francesco Molinari – Last three appearances have been: 1^st, 26^th, 7^th. He didn’t play last year, and has four T10s at this event in his career.
• Bryson DeChambeau – His last three appearances have been: 4^th, 46^th, and 2^nd.
• Sungjae Im – Im has played this event twice in his career with back-to-back 3^rd place finishes
• Henrik Stenson – Stenson’s last three appearances have been: MC, 17^th, and 4^th. He has played this event twelve times with four T5 finishes.
• Adam Hadwin – Hadwin has played this event three times with finishes of: 33^rd, 6^th, and 36^th (he didn’t play in 2020 or 2018).
• Keith Mitchell – Mitchell has played this event twice with finishes of 5^th and 6^th place.
• Jason Day – Day’s last three appearances have been WD, 22^nd, and 23^rd. Day won this event in 2016.
• Tommy Fleetwood – Fleetwood’s last three appearances have been: MC, 3^rd, and 26^th. He also added a T10 in 2017.
• Marc Leishman – Leishman’s last three appearances have been 2^nd, 23^rd, and 7^th. Leishman won this event in 2017.
• Tyrrell Hatton – Hatton’s three most recent appearances have been: 1^st, 29^th, and 69^th. He recorded a 4^th place finish in 2017.
• Jason Kokrak – Kokrak’s last three appearances have been: 18^th, 10^th, and MC. He finished 4^th in 2014.
• Matt Jones – Jones last three appearances have been: 47^th, MC, and 3^rd (he did not play from 2017-2019).
• Justin Rose – Rose’s last three appearances have been: MC, 63^rd, and 3^rd. Rose has played this event 15 times, and has 5 T5 finishes.
• Rickie Fowler -Fowler’s last three appearances have been 18^th, 40^th, and 14^th. Fowler finished 3^rd in 2013.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – Fitzpatrick’s last three appearances have been: 9^th, 2^nd, and MC.
• Graeme McDowell – McDowell’s las three appearances have been: 32^nd, 54^th, and 22^nd. McDowell has two runner-up finishes in 2005 and 2012.
• Pat Perez – Perez’s last three appearances have been: MC, 50^th, and 17^th. Perez finished 4^th in 2009.
• Danny Lee – Lee’s last three appearances have been: 5^th, MC, MC.
• Kevin Kisner – Kisner’s last three appearances have been: MC, 23^rd, and MC. He finished 2^nd in 2017.
• Ian Poulter – Poulter’s last three appearances have been: 32^nd, 23^rd, and 41^st. Poulter finished 3^rd in 2012.
• Charly Hoffman – Hoffman’s last three appearances have been: 13^th, MC, and 14^th. Hoffman finished 2^nd in 2017.
• Joel Dahmen – Dahmen has played this event twice finishing 5^th and MC.