AT&T Pebble Beach 2021 Trend Research

            The PGA Tour returns to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, this year will not feature any amateurs due to COVID-19 restrictions. I will post a full event preview later in the week. There is one trend for this week that I want to highlight in particular.

Trend: Since 2009, the last 12 winners of this event have recorded a T21 or better finish at Pebble Beach within one of their three previous appearances immediately preceding their victory.

To take this trend one step further, 9 of the last 12 winners of this event have recorded a T10 or better finish at Pebble Beach within one of their three previous appearances immediately preceding their victory.

Let’s look at this trend.

2009 Winner: Dustin Johnson. DJ recorded a T7 finish in his course debut in 2008.

2010 Winner: Dustin Johnson. DJ won the year prior and finished T7 two years prior.

2011 Winner: D.A. Points. Points did not play this event in 2010, missed the cut in 2009, and in 2008 he finished T14.

2012 Winner: Phil Mickelson. Mickelson finished T9^th in 2011, T8^th in 2010, and T55^th in 2009.

2013 Winner: Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker did not play this event in 2012, and he missed the cut in 2011. In 2010, Snedeker finished T21^st.

2014 Winner: Jimmy Walker. In 2013, Walker finished T3^rd. In 2012, Walker finished T9^th. Walker finished T9^th again in 2011.

2015 Winner: Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker missed the cut in 2014, but won it all in 2013.

2016 Winner: Vaughn Taylor. Taylor finished T10^th in 2015.

2017 Winner: Jordan Spieth. Spieth finished T21^st in 2016, T7^th in 2015, and T4^th in 2014.

2018 Winner: Ted Potter Jr. The man who almost broke this trend. This was more difficult to find, but Potter did not tee it up at this event from 2015-2017. He did play in 2014 where he missed the cut. However, in 2013 he finished T16^th. Remember, the trend is to finish T21^st or better in one of the 3 previous appearances, not three previous years.

2019 Winner: Phil Mickelson. Mickelson loves this course. Prior to his 2019 win, Mickelson finished T2^nd in 2018, 65^th in 2017, and 2^nd in 2016.

2020 Winner: Nick Taylor. Taylor finished T28^th in 2019, missed the cut in 2018, but finished T10^th in 2017.

The biggest takeaway from this trend is that course history does matter here. Using this trend to construct your entire betting card probably does not make sense. It is impossible to definitively say this trend will continue. However, it might make you feel better about your picks if you see your golfer fits into this trend.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week. There are 52 golfers in the field who have recorded a T21 or better finish in one of their three previous appearances at Pebble Beach. There are 30 golfers in the field who have recorded a T10 or better finish in one of their three previous appearances at Pebble Beach.

Finished T21 or Better:

• Ryan Armour – Finished T20^th in 2018.
• Sangmoon Bae (Listed as an alternate) – Finished T15^th in 2018.
• Joseph Bramlett – Finished T18^th last year.
• Bronson Burgoon – Has only played this course twice, recording a T21^st finish in 2016.
• Patrick Cantlay – Finished T11^th last year
• Wyndham Clark -Finished T18^th last year.
• Joel Dahmen – Finished T14^th last year.
• Matt Every – Finished T14^th in 2019.
• Jim Furyk – Finished T14^th in 2019.
• Brenden Grace – Finished T20^th in 2018.
• Chesson Hadley – Finished T18^th last year.
• Brian Harman – Has only played this course three times. He played here from 2012-2014, recording a T20^th place finish in 2012.
• Harry Higgs – Finished T18^th last year.
• J.B. Holmes – Finished T14^th last year.
• Sung Kang – Finished T14^th in 2019.
• Russell Knox – Finished T14^th in 2019.
• Peter Malnati – Finished T11^th last year.
• Ryan Moore – Has played this course five times in his career, only two times since 2012. In 2012, Moore finished T20^th.
• Matthew NeSmith -Finished T11^th last year.
• Brandt Snedeker – Finished T20^th in 2018.
• D.J. Trahan – Finished T18^th in 2019.
• Aaron Wise – Finished T15^th in 2018.

Finished T10 or Better:

• Daniel Berger – Finished T5^th last year.
• Paul Casey – Finished 2^nd in 2019.
• Kevin Chappell – Finished T8^th in 2018.
• Jason Day – Finished 4^th last year.
• Brian Gay – Finished T7^th in 2019.
• Bill Haas – Has only played this course three times in his career with an 8^th place finish in 2016.
• Max Homa – Finished T10^th in 2019.
• Dustin Johnson – Finished T2^nd place in 2018.
• Matt Jones – Finished T5^th last year.
• Si Woo Kim – Finished T4th in 2019.
• Kelly Kraft – Did not play last year, and finished 2^nd in 2017.
• Maverick McNealy – Finished T5^th last year.
• Troy Merritt – Finished T8^th in 2018.
• Phil Mickelson – Finished 3^rd last year.
• Grayson Murray – Finished T8^th in 2018.
• Nick Taylor – Finished 1^st last year.
• Seung-yul Noh – Finished T8^th the last time he played here in 2017.
• Rob Oppenheim – Finished T8^th in 2017 (did not play in 2019).
• Cameron Percy – Finished T10^th in 2017 (did not play in 2019 or 2020).
• Scott Piercy – Finished T10^th in 2019.
• Ted Potter Jr – Finished 1^st in 2018.
• Chez Reavie – Finished T2^nd in 2018.
• Patrick Rodgers – Finished T8^th in T2018.
• Jordan Spieth – Finished T9^th last year.
• Kevin Stadler – Finished T3^rd in 2013 (was his third most recent appearance)
• Scott Stallings – Finished T3^rd last year.
• Kevin Streelman – Finished 2^nd last year.
• Michael Thompson – Finished T10^th in 2019.
• Jimmy Walker – Finished T8^th in 2018.