AT&T Pebble Beach 2021 Trend Research

            The PGA Tour returns to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, this year will not feature any amateurs due to COVID-19 restrictions. I will post a full event preview later in the week. There is one trend for this week that I want to highlight in particular.

Trend: Since 2009, the last 12 winners of this event have recorded a T21 or better finish at Pebble Beach within one of their three previous appearances immediately preceding their victory.

To take this trend one step further, 9 of the last 12 winners of this event have recorded a T10 or better finish at Pebble Beach within one of their three previous appearances immediately preceding their victory.

Let’s look at this trend.

2009 Winner: Dustin Johnson. DJ recorded a T7 finish in his course debut in 2008.

2010 Winner: Dustin Johnson. DJ won the year prior and finished T7 two years prior.

2011 Winner: D.A. Points. Points did not play this event in 2010, missed the cut in 2009, and in 2008 he finished T14.

2012 Winner: Phil Mickelson. Mickelson finished T9th in 2011, T8th in 2010, and T55th in 2009.

2013 Winner: Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker did not play this event in 2012, and he missed the cut in 2011. In 2010, Snedeker finished T21st.

2014 Winner: Jimmy Walker. In 2013, Walker finished T3rd. In 2012, Walker finished T9th. Walker finished T9th again in 2011.

2015 Winner: Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker missed the cut in 2014, but won it all in 2013.

2016 Winner: Vaughn Taylor. Taylor finished T10th in 2015.

2017 Winner: Jordan Spieth. Spieth finished T21st in 2016, T7th in 2015, and T4th in 2014.

2018 Winner: Ted Potter Jr. The man who almost broke this trend. This was more difficult to find, but Potter did not tee it up at this event from 2015-2017. He did play in 2014 where he missed the cut. However, in 2013 he finished T16th. Remember, the trend is to finish T21st or better in one of the 3 previous appearances, not three previous years.

2019 Winner: Phil Mickelson. Mickelson loves this course. Prior to his 2019 win, Mickelson finished T2nd in 2018, 65th in 2017, and 2nd in 2016.

2020 Winner: Nick Taylor. Taylor finished T28th in 2019, missed the cut in 2018, but finished T10th in 2017.

The biggest takeaway from this trend is that course history does matter here. Using this trend to construct your entire betting card probably does not make sense. It is impossible to definitively say this trend will continue. However, it might make you feel better about your picks if you see your golfer fits into this trend.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week. There are 52 golfers in the field who have recorded a T21 or better finish in one of their three previous appearances at Pebble Beach. There are 30 golfers in the field who have recorded a T10 or better finish in one of their three previous appearances at Pebble Beach.

Finished T21 or Better:

  • Ryan Armour – Finished T20th in 2018.
  • Sangmoon Bae (Listed as an alternate) – Finished T15th in 2018.
  • Joseph Bramlett – Finished T18th last year.
  • Bronson Burgoon – Has only played this course twice, recording a T21st finish in 2016.
  • Patrick Cantlay – Finished T11th last year
  • Wyndham Clark -Finished T18th last year.
  • Joel Dahmen – Finished T14th last year.
  • Matt Every – Finished T14th in 2019.
  • Jim Furyk – Finished T14th in 2019.
  • Brenden Grace – Finished T20th in 2018.
  • Chesson Hadley – Finished T18th last year.
  • Brian Harman – Has only played this course three times. He played here from 2012-2014, recording a T20th place finish in 2012.
  • Harry Higgs – Finished T18th last year.
  • J.B. Holmes – Finished T14th last year.
  • Sung Kang – Finished T14th in 2019.
  • Russell Knox – Finished T14th in 2019.
  • Peter Malnati – Finished T11th last year.
  • Ryan Moore – Has played this course five times in his career, only two times since 2012. In 2012, Moore finished T20th.
  • Matthew NeSmith -Finished T11th last year.
  • Brandt Snedeker – Finished T20th in 2018.
  • D.J. Trahan – Finished T18th in 2019.
  • Aaron Wise – Finished T15th in 2018.

Finished T10 or Better:

  • Daniel Berger – Finished T5th last year.
  • Paul Casey – Finished 2nd in 2019.
  • Kevin Chappell – Finished T8th in 2018.
  • Jason Day – Finished 4th last year.
  • Brian Gay – Finished T7th in 2019.
  • Bill Haas – Has only played this course three times in his career with an 8th place finish in 2016.
  • Max Homa – Finished T10th in 2019.
  • Dustin Johnson – Finished T2nd place in 2018.
  • Matt Jones – Finished T5th last year.
  • Si Woo Kim – Finished T4th in 2019.
  • Kelly Kraft – Did not play last year, and finished 2nd in 2017.
  • Maverick McNealy – Finished T5th last year.
  • Troy Merritt – Finished T8th in 2018.
  • Phil Mickelson – Finished 3rd last year.
  • Grayson Murray – Finished T8th in 2018.
  • Nick Taylor – Finished 1st last year.
  • Seung-yul Noh – Finished T8th the last time he played here in 2017.
  • Rob Oppenheim – Finished T8th in 2017 (did not play in 2019).
  • Cameron Percy – Finished T10th in 2017 (did not play in 2019 or 2020).
  • Scott Piercy – Finished T10th in 2019.
  • Ted Potter Jr – Finished 1st in 2018.
  • Chez Reavie – Finished T2nd in 2018.
  • Patrick Rodgers – Finished T8th in T2018.
  • Jordan Spieth – Finished T9th last year.
  • Kevin Stadler – Finished T3rd in 2013 (was his third most recent appearance)
  • Scott Stallings – Finished T3rd last year.
  • Kevin Streelman – Finished 2nd last year.
  • Michael Thompson – Finished T10th in 2019.
  • Jimmy Walker – Finished T8th in 2018.

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