Arnold Palmer Invitational Trend Research

The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with a trip to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As an invitational, the field is shortened to 123 golfers. I will have a full event preview with my betting card posted later in the week. There are some interesting trends for the API this week that are worth considering. This is a reminder that trends exist in hindsight and are most likely not predictive, so I wouldn’t recommend betting on golfers solely because they fit into a trend.

Trend: The last 9 winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have recorded a T25 or better finish in one of their three most recent appearances at the event.

Trend: 7 of the last 9 winners have recorded a T5 or better finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at one point in their career.

Trend: 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the Top 40 Official World Golf Rankings heading into the week that they won.

Let’s look at the last 9 winners and what they have done at API prior to their victory.

Former Winners

Tyrrell Hatton (2020)Hatton had played this event three times prior to his victory, finishing: 29th, 69th, and 4th.

Francesco Molinari (2019) – Molinari had played this event six times prior to his victory, finishing: 26th, 7th, 9th, 17th, 5th, and 34th.

Rory McIlroy (2018) – Rory had played this event three times prior to his victory, finishing: 4th, 27th, and 11th.

Marc Leishman (2017) – Leishman had played this event seven times prior to his victory, finishing: 17th, MC, 31st, MC, 48th, 3rd, and 40th

Jason Day (2016) – Day had played this event five times prior to his victory, finishing: 17th, 45th, 25th, WD, and MC.

Matt Every (2015) –Every had played this event five times prior to his second victory, finishing: 1st, 34th, 24th, MC, and 52nd.

Matt Every (2014) – Every had played this event four times prior to his victory, finishing: 34th, 24th, MC, and 52nd.

Tiger Woods (2013) – Tiger has dominated this event in his career, prior to this victory he had finishes of: 1st, 24th, 1st, 1st, 22nd, 20th, 23rd, 46th, and 1st.

Tiger Woods (2012) – Prior to his 2012 victory, Tiger had finishes of: 24th, 1st, 1st, 22nd, 20th, 23rd, 46th, and 1st.

2021 API Field

            When you look at the first trend, there are 49 golfers in the field this year who have recorded a T25 or better finish in one of their three most recent appearances. That doesn’t narrow down the field that much, so I won’t include all 49 golfers. If you are looking at a golfer and are curious if they’ve met that first trend, send me a tweet and I’ll let you know!

            When you combine the first two trends, (T25 in last 3 appearances + T5 or better in their career), the field is narrowed down to 23 golfers. Here is a list of those golfers:

  • Rory McIlroy – Last three appearances have been: 5th, 6th, 1st. Rory has played this event six times with three top 5 finishes.
  • Francesco Molinari – Last three appearances have been: 1st, 26th, 7th. He didn’t play last year, and has four T10s at this event in his career.
  • Bryson DeChambeau – His last three appearances have been: 4th, 46th, and 2nd.
  • Sungjae Im – Im has played this event twice in his career with back-to-back 3rd place finishes
  • Henrik Stenson – Stenson’s last three appearances have been: MC, 17th, and 4th. He has played this event twelve times with four T5 finishes.
  • Adam Hadwin – Hadwin has played this event three times with finishes of: 33rd, 6th, and 36th (he didn’t play in 2020 or 2018).
  • Keith Mitchell – Mitchell has played this event twice with finishes of 5th and 6th place.
  • Jason Day – Day’s last three appearances have been WD, 22nd, and 23rd. Day won this event in 2016.
  • Tommy Fleetwood – Fleetwood’s last three appearances have been: MC, 3rd, and 26th. He also added a T10 in 2017.
  • Marc Leishman – Leishman’s last three appearances have been 2nd, 23rd, and 7th. Leishman won this event in 2017.
  • Tyrrell Hatton – Hatton’s three most recent appearances have been: 1st, 29th, and 69th. He recorded a 4th place finish in 2017.
  • Jason Kokrak – Kokrak’s last three appearances have been: 18th, 10th, and MC. He finished 4th in 2014.
  • Matt Jones – Jones last three appearances have been: 47th, MC, and 3rd (he did not play from 2017-2019).
  • Justin Rose – Rose’s last three appearances have been: MC, 63rd, and 3rd. Rose has played this event 15 times, and has 5 T5 finishes.
  • Rickie Fowler -Fowler’s last three appearances have been 18th, 40th, and 14th. Fowler finished 3rd in 2013.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick – Fitzpatrick’s last three appearances have been: 9th, 2nd, and MC.
  • Graeme McDowell – McDowell’s las three appearances have been: 32nd, 54th, and 22nd. McDowell has two runner-up finishes in 2005 and 2012.
  • Pat Perez – Perez’s last three appearances have been: MC, 50th, and 17th. Perez finished 4th in 2009.
  • Danny Lee – Lee’s last three appearances have been: 5th, MC, MC.
  • Kevin Kisner – Kisner’s last three appearances have been: MC, 23rd, and MC. He finished 2nd in 2017.
  • Ian Poulter – Poulter’s last three appearances have been: 32nd, 23rd, and 41st. Poulter finished 3rd in 2012.
  • Charly Hoffman – Hoffman’s last three appearances have been: 13th, MC, and 14th. Hoffman finished 2nd in 2017.
  • Joel Dahmen – Dahmen has played this event twice finishing 5th and MC.

DAY 3 – WGC WORKDAY – WAGGLE DUFF LEADERBOARD

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#NamePoints
1Sammie_D9680
23 Putt Only75
3NJHolden65
4AndrewYJohnson60
5Driscollmania60
6DerekDavidson60
7LewisBroley8855
8BrandonPoole45
9LinksandWhiskey45
10ADAMP_7045
11JimmyFitz40
12Andrew_Tizzard40
1347_Irish40
14GolfTipster535
15Steve_Donnelly35
16AverageJoePublic30
17SamBudgen30
18GolfBets10125
19Steve_Br825
20Mark_Higgins25
21LeoDuckett25
22Bagshaw211220
23JRSpratt20
24mcla2120
25JaxonGolf20
26GirleyGolfer201320
27ShaunMaca120
28JBecker106820
29ThirtySixHoles15
30Marrs_Jordan15
31TheMIitchTobin15
32CoxyYork15
33GolfSmiler15
34D_Doback15
35J Stanley15
36PeterSmith27215
37Spinney1215
38GaryCrooks1115
39_Mitch_Cumstien10
40Giraffe HK10
41FreddieMiekle10
42CliveWinward10
43M30kle10
44RichCrow201010
45nicksmith_M10
46GolfFather5
47GrizzleyBear725
48PaulJacksonGolf5
49Cee WhizBets5
50MigaBarrerag5
51GolfSportint550
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Player Round 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
W Simpson105520
M Fitzpatrick105520
B Horchel55515
K Kisner5510
B Koepka510520
S Garcia55
C Smith5510
T Finau5510
P Reed55515
S Im55
W Ormsby55
J Rahm55
C Morikawa 101020
L Oosthuizen55
A Ancer55
B DeChambeau55
R Mcilroy55
V Hovland55
S Scheffler55
H Matsuyama55
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 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1Bagshaw21122051050
 D Johsnon0
 B Koepka2051050
 X Schauffele0
 L Westwood0
 A Scott0
 BONUS 20 ->
2AndrewYJohnson601520100
 P Reed305550
 T Finau105500
 B Koepka2051050
 P Perez0
 Kokrak0
 BONUS 20 ->
33 Putt Only752025100
 B Koepka4051050
 W Simpson2010550
 T Finau105500
 A Ancer50500
 H English0
 BONUS 20 ->
4GolfFather50050
 D Johsnon0
 X Schauffele0
 J Rose0
 V Hovland50050
 M Homa0
 BONUS 20 ->
5_Mitch_Cumstien105500
 J Thomas0
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 H English0
 C Smith105500
 BONUS 20 ->
6Giraffe HK105050
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy50050
 R MacIntyre0
 R Hojgaard0
 BONUS 20 ->
7GolfBets10125105100
 T Hatton 0
 R Mcilroy50050
 W Simpson2010550
 Zalatoris0
 R Palmer0
 BONUS 20 ->
8Sammie_D96802520150
 B Koepka4051050
 W Simpson2010550
 T Finau105500
 S Garcia55000
 H Matsuyama50050
 BONUS 20 ->
9BrandonPoole45101050
 B Koepka4051050
 T Hatton 0
 J Rose0
 S Garcia55000
 S Lowry0
 BONUS 20 ->
10Driscollmania602015100
 P Reed305550
 R MacIntyre0
 C Smith105500
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 M Fitzpatrick2010550
 BONUS 20 ->
11GrizzleyBear7255000
 J Thomas0
 D Johnson0
 J Rose0
 S Garcia55000
 H English0
 BONUS 20 ->
12ThirtySixHoles1510000
 J Rahm105000
 X Schauffele0
 S Im55000
 J Day0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
13FreddieMiekle105500
 D Johnson0
 B DeChambeau50500
 S Im55000
 A Scott0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->
14NJHolden651515150
 B Koepka4051050
 R McIlroy50050
 P Reed155550
 S Garcia55000
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
15JRSpratt2010550
 D Johnson0
 T Finau105500
 V Hovland50050
 Kokrak0
 S Garcia55000
 BONUS 20 ->
16CliveWinward105000
 R Rahm105000
 D Johnson0
 J Day0
 J Thomas0
 G Woodland0
 BONUS 20 ->
17Marrs_Jordan155550
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 T Finau105500
 H Matsuyama50050
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
18mcla21205550
 V Hovland100050
 J Rahm55000
 T Hatton 0
 J Rose0
 A Ancer50500
 BONUS 20 ->
19TheMIitchTobin155550
 X Schauffele0
 P Reed155550
 T Hatton 0
 E Van Rooyen0
 A Rai0
 BONUS 20 ->
20CoxyYork155050
 J Rahm105000
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy50050
 J Nienmann0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
21M30kle105050
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy50050
 Kokrak0
 R MacIntyre0
 BONUS 20 ->
22GolfSmiler155550
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy50050
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
23D_Doback150550
 V Hovland100050
 T Hatton 0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 S Lowry0
 BONUS 20 ->
24GolfSportint5500000
 D Johnson0
 C Ortiz0
 B Wiesberger0
 B Todd0
 R Hojgaard0
 BONUS 20 ->
25AverageJoePublic3010550
 T Finau205500
 J Rahm55000
 S Scheffler50050
 A Scott0
 M Homa0
 BONUS 20 ->
26Steve_Br82510550
 J Rahm105000
 T Finau105500
 V Hovland50050
 A Scott0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
27PaulJacksonGolf50050
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland50050
 H English0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
28GolfTipster5351010100
 B DeChambeau100500
 D Johnson0
 V Hovland50050
 M Fitzpatrick2010550
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
29Mark_Higgins25101000
 J Rahm105000
 B DeChambeau50500
 C Smith105500
 J Rose0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
30JimmyFitz402010100
 D Johnson0
 W Simpson2010550
 M Fitzpatrick2010550
 D Berger0
 J Day0
 BONUS 20 ->
31Andrew_Tizzard4010550
 M Fitzpatrick4010550
 C Ortiz0
 A Sullivan0
 L Griffin0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
32LewisBroley88551515100
 P Reed305550
 S Im55000
 B Koepka2051050
 J Rose0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
33LinksandWhiskey45101050
 B Koepka4051050
 T Hatton 0
 S Im55000
 Zalatoris0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
3447_Irish40101050
 P Reed305550
 X Schauffele0
 D Johnson0
 R Palmer0
 C Smith105500
 BONUS 20 ->
35JaxonGolf2051000
 B DeChambeau100500
 X Schauffele0
 T Finau105500
 Zalatoris0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
36Cee WhizBets50500
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 J Thomas0
 J Nienmann0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
37J Stanley1551000
 D Johnson0
 B DeChambeau50500
 T Finau105500
 J Rose0
 J Day0
 BONUS 20 ->
38MigaBarrerag50500
 D Berger0
 T Fleetwood0
 M Wolff0
 A Scott0
 B DeChambeau50500
 BONUS 20 ->
39DerekDavidson601515150
 P Reed305550
 C Morikawa20010100
 J Rahm55000
 S Garcia55000
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
40RichCrow2010105500
 D Berger0
 J Thomas0
 T Finau105500
 M Homa0
 L Westwood0
 BONUS 20 ->
41ADAMP_70452510100
 D Johnson0
 D Berger0
 M Fitzpatrick2010550
 J Rahm55000
 W Simpson2010550
 BONUS 20 ->
42LeoDuckett255550
 T Finau205500
 R McIlroy50050
 T Fleetwood0
 J Rose0
 L Herbert0
 BONUS 20 ->
43PeterSmith272155550
 X Schauffele0
 R McIlroy50050
 T Finau105500
 R MacIntyre0
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
44Steve_Donnelly35105150
 S Scheffler100050
 W Simpson2010550
 V Hovland50050
 A Scott0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
45SamBudgen30101000
 T Finau205500
 X Schauffele0
 S Garcia55000
 M Wolff0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
46GirleyGolfer201320101000
 J Thomas0
 J Nienmann0
 C Ortiz0
 T Finau105500
 C Smith105500
 BONUS 20 ->
47ShaunMaca1205550
 J Rahm105000
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland50050
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
48Spinney12155550
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy50050
 J Rahm55000
 J Rose0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
49JBecker10682051050
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 B Koepka2051050
 Zalatoris0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
50nicksmith_M105500
 J Thomas0
 T Finau105500
 J Nienmann0
 C Ortiz0
 L Westwood0
 BONUS 20 ->
51GaryCrooks11155550
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy50050
 T Finau105500
 H English0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->

DAY 2 – WAGGLE DUFF – WGC WORKDAY

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#NamePoints
13 Putt Only60
2Sammie_D9660
3AndrewYJohnson45
4Driscollmania45
5NJHolden45
6LewisBroley8840
7DerekDavidson40
8BrandonPoole35
9LinksandWhiskey35
10ADAMP_7035
11JimmyFitz30
12Andrew_Tizzard30
1347_Irish30
14SamBudgen30
15AverageJoePublic25
16GolfTipster525
17Mark_Higgins25
18Steve_Br820
19JaxonGolf20
20LeoDuckett20
21GirleyGolfer201320
22Bagshaw211215
23GolfBets10115
24ThirtySixHoles15
25JRSpratt15
26J Stanley15
27Steve_Donnelly15
28ShaunMaca115
29JBecker106815
30_Mitch_Cumstien10
31FreddieMiekle10
32CliveWinward10
33Marrs_Jordan10
34mcla2110
35TheMIitchTobin10
36CoxyYork10
37GolfSmiler10
38RichCrow201010
39PeterSmith27210
40Spinney1210
41nicksmith_M10
42Giraffe HK5
43GrizzleyBear725
44M30kle5
45D_Doback5
46Cee WhizBets5
47MigaBarrerag5
48GolfFather0
49GolfSportint550
50PaulJacksonGolf0
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Player Round 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
W Simpson10515
M Fitzpatrick10515
B Horchel5510
K Kisner5510
B Koepka51015
S Garcia55
C Smith5510
T Finau5510
P Reed5510
S Im55
W Ormsby55
J Rahm55
C Morikawa 1010
L Oosthuizen55
A Ancer55
B DeChambeau55
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 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1Bagshaw21121551000
 D Johsnon0
 B Koepka1551000
 X Schauffele0
 L Westwood0
 A Scott0
 BONUS 20 ->
2AndrewYJohnson45152000
 P Reed205500
 T Finau105500
 B Koepka1551000
 P Perez0
 Kokrak0
 BONUS 20 ->
33 Putt Only60202500
 B Koepka3051000
 W Simpson1510500
 T Finau105500
 A Ancer50500
 H English0
 BONUS 20 ->
4GolfFather00000
 D Johsnon0
 X Schauffele0
 J Rose0
 V Hovland0
 M Homa0
 BONUS 20 ->
5_Mitch_Cumstien105500
 J Thomas0
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 H English0
 C Smith105500
 BONUS 20 ->
6Giraffe HK55000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy0
 R MacIntyre0
 R Hojgaard0
 BONUS 20 ->
7GolfBets1011510500
 T Hatton 0
 R Mcilroy0
 W Simpson1510500
 Zalatoris0
 R Palmer0
 BONUS 20 ->
8Sammie_D9660252000
 B Koepka3051000
 W Simpson1510500
 T Finau105500
 S Garcia55000
 H Matsuyama0
 BONUS 20 ->
9BrandonPoole35101000
 B Koepka3051000
 T Hatton 0
 J Rose0
 S Garcia55000
 S Lowry0
 BONUS 20 ->
10Driscollmania45201500
 P Reed205500
 R MacIntyre0
 C Smith105500
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 M Fitzpatrick1510500
 BONUS 20 ->
11GrizzleyBear7255000
 J Thomas0
 D Johnson0
 J Rose0
 S Garcia55000
 H English0
 BONUS 20 ->
12ThirtySixHoles1510000
 J Rahm105000
 X Schauffele0
 S Im55000
 J Day0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
13FreddieMiekle105500
 D Johnson0
 B DeChambeau50500
 S Im55000
 A Scott0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->
14NJHolden45151500
 B Koepka3051000
 R McIlroy0
 P Reed105500
 S Garcia55000
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
15JRSpratt1510500
 D Johnson0
 T Finau105500
 V Hovland0
 Kokrak0
 S Garcia55000
 BONUS 20 ->
16CliveWinward105000
 R Rahm105000
 D Johnson0
 J Day0
 J Thomas0
 G Woodland0
 BONUS 20 ->
17Marrs_Jordan105500
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 T Finau105500
 H Matsuyama0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
18mcla21105500
 V Hovland0
 J Rahm55000
 T Hatton 0
 J Rose0
 A Ancer50500
 BONUS 20 ->
19TheMIitchTobin105500
 X Schauffele0
 P Reed105500
 T Hatton 0
 E Van Rooyen0
 A Rai0
 BONUS 20 ->
20CoxyYork105000
 J Rahm105000
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy0
 J Nienmann0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
21M30kle55000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy0
 Kokrak0
 R MacIntyre0
 BONUS 20 ->
22GolfSmiler105500
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
23D_Doback50500
 V Hovland0
 T Hatton 0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 S Lowry0
 BONUS 20 ->
24GolfSportint5500000
 D Johnson0
 C Ortiz0
 B Wiesberger0
 B Todd0
 R Hojgaard0
 BONUS 20 ->
25AverageJoePublic2510500
 T Finau205500
 J Rahm55000
 S Scheffler0
 A Scott0
 M Homa0
 BONUS 20 ->
26Steve_Br82010500
 J Rahm105000
 T Finau105500
 V Hovland0
 A Scott0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
27PaulJacksonGolf00000
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland0
 H English0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
28GolfTipster525101000
 B DeChambeau100500
 D Johnson0
 V Hovland0
 M Fitzpatrick1510500
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
29Mark_Higgins25101000
 J Rahm105000
 B DeChambeau50500
 C Smith105500
 J Rose0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
30JimmyFitz30201000
 D Johnson0
 W Simpson1510500
 M Fitzpatrick1510500
 D Berger0
 J Day0
 BONUS 20 ->
31Andrew_Tizzard3010500
 M Fitzpatrick3010500
 C Ortiz0
 A Sullivan0
 L Griffin0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
32LewisBroley8840151500
 P Reed205500
 S Im55000
 B Koepka1551000
 J Rose0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
33LinksandWhiskey35101000
 B Koepka3051000
 T Hatton 0
 S Im55000
 Zalatoris0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
3447_Irish30101000
 P Reed205500
 X Schauffele0
 D Johnson0
 R Palmer0
 C Smith105500
 BONUS 20 ->
35JaxonGolf2051000
 B DeChambeau100500
 X Schauffele0
 T Finau105500
 Zalatoris0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
36Cee WhizBets50500
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 J Thomas0
 J Nienmann0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
37J Stanley1551000
 D Johnson0
 B DeChambeau50500
 T Finau105500
 J Rose0
 J Day0
 BONUS 20 ->
38MigaBarrerag50500
 D Berger0
 T Fleetwood0
 M Wolff0
 A Scott0
 B DeChambeau50500
 BONUS 20 ->
39DerekDavidson40151500
 P Reed205500
 C Morikawa1001000
 J Rahm55000
 S Garcia55000
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
40RichCrow2010105500
 D Berger0
 J Thomas0
 T Finau105500
 M Homa0
 L Westwood0
 BONUS 20 ->
41ADAMP_7035251000
 D Johnson0
 D Berger0
 M Fitzpatrick1510500
 J Rahm55000
 W Simpson1510500
 BONUS 20 ->
42LeoDuckett205500
 T Finau205500
 R McIlroy0
 T Fleetwood0
 J Rose0
 L Herbert0
 BONUS 20 ->
43PeterSmith272105500
 X Schauffele0
 R McIlroy0
 T Finau105500
 R MacIntyre0
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
44Steve_Donnelly1510500
 S Scheffler0
 W Simpson1510500
 V Hovland0
 A Scott0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
45SamBudgen30101000
 T Finau205500
 X Schauffele0
 S Garcia55000
 M Wolff0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
46GirleyGolfer201320101000
 J Thomas0
 J Nienmann0
 C Ortiz0
 T Finau105500
 C Smith105500
 BONUS 20 ->
47ShaunMaca1155500
 J Rahm105000
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
48Spinney12105500
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy0
 J Rahm55000
 J Rose0
 L Oosthuizen50500
 BONUS 20 ->
49JBecker10681551000
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 B Koepka1551000
 Zalatoris0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
50nicksmith_M105500
 J Thomas0
 T Finau105500
 J Nienmann0
 C Ortiz0
 L Westwood0
 BONUS 20 ->

DAY 1- WGC WORKDAY – WAGGLE DUFF

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#NamePoints
1Sammie_D9630
23 Putt Only25
3Driscollmania25
4ADAMP_7025
5AndrewYJohnson20
6NJHolden20
7JimmyFitz20
8Andrew_Tizzard20
9LewisBroley8820
10DerekDavidson20
11BrandonPoole15
12ThirtySixHoles15
13AverageJoePublic15
14Steve_Br815
15Mark_Higgins15
16LinksandWhiskey15
1747_Irish15
18SamBudgen15
19GolfBets10110
20JRSpratt10
21CliveWinward10
22CoxyYork10
23GolfTipster510
24LeoDuckett10
25Steve_Donnelly10
26GirleyGolfer201310
27ShaunMaca110
28Bagshaw21125
29_Mitch_Cumstien5
30Giraffe HK5
31GrizzleyBear725
32FreddieMiekle5
33Marrs_Jordan5
34mcla215
35TheMIitchTobin5
36M30kle5
37GolfSmiler5
38JaxonGolf5
39J Stanley5
40RichCrow20105
41PeterSmith2725
42Spinney125
43JBecker10685
44nicksmith_M5
45GolfFather0
46D_Doback0
47GolfSportint550
48PaulJacksonGolf0
49Cee WhizBets0
50MigaBarrerag0
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Player Round 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
W Simpson1010
M Fitzpatrick1010
B Horchel55
K Kisner55
B Koepka55
S Garcia55
C Smith55
T Finau55
P Reed55
S Im55
W Ormsby55
J Rahm55
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 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1Bagshaw211255000
 D Johsnon0
 B Koepka55000
 X Schauffele0
 L Westwood0
 A Scott0
 BONUS 20 ->
2AndrewYJohnson2015000
 P Reed105000
 T Finau55000
 B Koepka55000
 P Perez0
 Kokrak0
 BONUS 20 ->
33 Putt Only2520000
 B Koepka105000
 W Simpson1010000
 T Finau55000
 A Ancer0
 H English0
 BONUS 20 ->
4GolfFather00000
 D Johsnon0
 X Schauffele0
 J Rose0
 V Hovland0
 M Homa0
 BONUS 20 ->
5_Mitch_Cumstien55000
 J Thomas0
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 H English0
 C Smith55000
 BONUS 20 ->
6Giraffe HK55000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy0
 R MacIntyre0
 R Hojgaard0
 BONUS 20 ->
7GolfBets1011010000
 T Hatton 0
 R Mcilroy0
 W Simpson1010000
 Zalatoris0
 R Palmer0
 BONUS 20 ->
8Sammie_D963025000
 B Koepka105000
 W Simpson1010000
 T Finau55000
 S Garcia55000
 H Matsuyama0
 BONUS 20 ->
9BrandonPoole1510000
 B Koepka105000
 T Hatton 0
 J Rose0
 S Garcia55000
 S Lowry0
 BONUS 20 ->
10Driscollmania2520000
 P Reed105000
 R MacIntyre0
 C Smith55000
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 M Fitzpatrick1010000
 BONUS 20 ->
11GrizzleyBear7255000
 J Thomas0
 D Johnson0
 J Rose0
 S Garcia55000
 H English0
 BONUS 20 ->
12ThirtySixHoles1510000
 J Rahm105000
 X Schauffele0
 S Im55000
 J Day0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
13FreddieMiekle55000
 D Johnson0
 B DeChambeau0
 S Im55000
 A Scott0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->
14NJHolden2015000
 B Koepka105000
 R McIlroy0
 P Reed55000
 S Garcia55000
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
15JRSpratt1010000
 D Johnson0
 T Finau55000
 V Hovland0
 Kokrak0
 S Garcia55000
 BONUS 20 ->
16CliveWinward105000
 R Rahm105000
 D Johnson0
 J Day0
 J Thomas0
 G Woodland0
 BONUS 20 ->
17Marrs_Jordan55000
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 T Finau55000
 H Matsuyama0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
18mcla2155000
 V Hovland0
 J Rahm55000
 T Hatton 0
 J Rose0
 A Ancer0
 BONUS 20 ->
19TheMIitchTobin55000
 X Schauffele0
 P Reed55000
 T Hatton 0
 E Van Rooyen0
 A Rai0
 BONUS 20 ->
20CoxyYork105000
 J Rahm105000
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy0
 J Nienmann0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
21M30kle55000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy0
 Kokrak0
 R MacIntyre0
 BONUS 20 ->
22GolfSmiler55000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm55000
 R McIlroy0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen0
 BONUS 20 ->
23D_Doback00000
 V Hovland0
 T Hatton 0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen0
 S Lowry0
 BONUS 20 ->
24GolfSportint5500000
 D Johnson0
 C Ortiz0
 B Wiesberger0
 B Todd0
 R Hojgaard0
 BONUS 20 ->
25AverageJoePublic1510000
 T Finau105000
 J Rahm55000
 S Scheffler0
 A Scott0
 M Homa0
 BONUS 20 ->
26Steve_Br81510000
 J Rahm105000
 T Finau55000
 V Hovland0
 A Scott0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
27PaulJacksonGolf00000
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland0
 H English0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
28GolfTipster51010000
 B DeChambeau0
 D Johnson0
 V Hovland0
 M Fitzpatrick1010000
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
29Mark_Higgins1510000
 J Rahm105000
 B DeChambeau0
 C Smith55000
 J Rose0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
30JimmyFitz2020000
 D Johnson0
 W Simpson1010000
 M Fitzpatrick1010000
 D Berger0
 J Day0
 BONUS 20 ->
31Andrew_Tizzard2010000
 M Fitzpatrick2010000
 C Ortiz0
 A Sullivan0
 L Griffin0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
32LewisBroley882015000
 P Reed105000
 S Im55000
 B Koepka55000
 J Rose0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
33LinksandWhiskey1510000
 B Koepka105000
 T Hatton 0
 S Im55000
 Zalatoris0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
3447_Irish1510000
 P Reed105000
 X Schauffele0
 D Johnson0
 R Palmer0
 C Smith55000
 BONUS 20 ->
35JaxonGolf55000
 B DeChambeau0
 X Schauffele0
 T Finau55000
 Zalatoris0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
36Cee WhizBets00000
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 J Thomas0
 J Nienmann0
 L Oosthuizen0
 BONUS 20 ->
37J Stanley55000
 D Johnson0
 B DeChambeau0
 T Finau55000
 J Rose0
 J Day0
 BONUS 20 ->
38MigaBarrerag00000
 D Berger0
 T Fleetwood0
 M Wolff0
 A Scott0
 B DeChambeau0
 BONUS 20 ->
39DerekDavidson2015000
 P Reed105000
 C Morikawa0
 J Rahm55000
 S Garcia55000
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
40RichCrow201055000
 D Berger0
 J Thomas0
 T Finau55000
 M Homa0
 L Westwood0
 BONUS 20 ->
41ADAMP_702525000
 D Johnson0
 D Berger0
 M Fitzpatrick1010000
 J Rahm55000
 W Simpson1010000
 BONUS 20 ->
42LeoDuckett105000
 T Finau105000
 R McIlroy0
 T Fleetwood0
 J Rose0
 L Herbert0
 BONUS 20 ->
43PeterSmith27255000
 X Schauffele0
 R McIlroy0
 T Finau55000
 R MacIntyre0
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
44Steve_Donnelly1010000
 S Scheffler0
 W Simpson1010000
 V Hovland0
 A Scott0
 J Rose0
 BONUS 20 ->
45SamBudgen1510000
 T Finau105000
 X Schauffele0
 S Garcia55000
 M Wolff0
 L Oosthuizen0
 BONUS 20 ->
46GirleyGolfer20131010000
 J Thomas0
 J Nienmann0
 C Ortiz0
 T Finau55000
 C Smith55000
 BONUS 20 ->
47ShaunMaca1105000
 J Rahm105000
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland0
 H English0
 L Oosthuizen0
 BONUS 20 ->
48Spinney1255000
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy0
 J Rahm55000
 J Rose0
 L Oosthuizen0
 BONUS 20 ->
49JBecker106855000
 D Johnson0
 T Hatton 0
 B Koepka55000
 Zalatoris0
 C Bezeuidenhout0
 BONUS 20 ->
50nicksmith_M55000
 J Thomas0
 T Finau55000
 J Nienmann0
 C Ortiz0
 L Westwood0
 BONUS 20 ->

WGC WORKDAY CHAMPIONSHIP – ODDS, PREVIEW

Hi all

Sorry about the delay last week with results, back to it this week with WGC! Buzzing!

So – Teams of 5 tweeted to @WaggleDuff on Twitter. (using the hastag #waggle69)

Your first pick is your captain

2 of your players must be 50/1 or greater, as per the below list! (LOOKING AT OUTRIGHT COLUMN ONLY!)

PlayerOutrightTop 10Rd 1 Leader
Dustin Johnson13/24/611/1
Jon Rahm9/11/116/1
Xander Schauffele14/111/820/1
Justin Thomas16/17/422/1
Patrick Cantlay16/16/422/1
Rory McIlroy16/17/420/1
Bryson Dechambeau18/115/825/1
Tony Finau18/17/425/1
Tyrrell Hatton20/12/128/1
Viktor Hovland20/19/430/1
Brooks Koepka25/15/233/1
Daniel Berger25/15/230/1
Patrick Reed28/111/433/1
Webb Simpson28/111/433/1
Sung-Jae Im33/110/340/1
Collin Morikawa35/13/135/1
Joaquin Niemann40/110/340/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick40/17/240/1
Scottie Scheffler40/17/240/1
Tommy Fleetwood40/17/240/1
Cameron Smith45/17/240/1
Adam Scott50/19/245/1
Harris English50/19/250/1
Hideki Matsuyama50/14/145/1
Justin Rose50/19/245/1
Jason Day55/19/245/1
Louis Oosthuizen55/19/250/1
Max Homa55/19/245/1
Will Zalatoris55/19/250/1
Sergio Garcia66/111/260/1
Ryan Palmer70/111/255/1
Abraham Ancer80/16/166/1
Bubba Watson80/113/260/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout80/113/260/1
Billy Horschel90/16/166/1
Jason Kokrak90/17/166/1
Kevin Kisner90/17/160/1
Kevin Na90/17/160/1
Marc Leishman90/17/160/1
Matthew Wolff90/115/266/1
Robert MacIntyre90/115/260/1
Carlos Ortiz100/115/266/1
Shane Lowry100/115/266/1
Rasmus Hojgaard110/110/166/1
Victor Perez110/18/166/1
Bernd Wiesberger125/111/180/1
Gary Woodland125/111/180/1
Lanto Griffin125/110/170/1
Lee Westwood125/111/180/1
Mackenzie Hughes125/110/180/1
Andy Sullivan150/112/180/1
Brendon Todd150/111/180/1
Cameron Champ150/114/180/1
Thomas Detry150/114/180/1
Laurie Canter175/114/180/1
Matt Kuchar175/112/180/1
Erik Van Rooyen200/116/190/1
Lucas Herbert200/116/1100/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello200/116/190/1
Sami Valimaki200/116/1100/1
Sebastian Munoz200/112/1100/1
Aaron Rai250/120/1110/1
Brandon Stone250/120/1100/1
David Lipsky250/118/1100/1
Jason Scrivener250/122/1110/1
Chan Kim400/128/1125/1
Minwoo Lee400/130/1150/1
Wade Ormsby400/140/1150/1
Brad Kennedy500/140/1150/1
Daniel Van Tonder500/140/1150/1
Yuki Inamori500/140/1150/1
JC Ritchie750/150/1175/1
Trevor Simsby1000/180/1250/1

FINAL RESULTS – GENESIS INVITATIONAL

1GirleyGolfer2013140
2CliveWinward135
3Njholden134
4Dan92Miller129
5Mark_Higgins69121
6LewisBroley88121
7AndrewYJohnson120
8ADAMP_70119
9GiraffeHK107
10CoxyYork102
11LeoDuckett99
12jbecker106891
13JimmyFitz88
14PeterSmith27284
15M30kle83
16DerekDavidson82
17LinksandWhiskey80
18GarySpencer7479
19jstanbets79
20D_Doback78
21Bagshaw211276
22AverageJoePublic69
23RichCro201069
24FreddieMiekle68
25PaulJacksonGolf66
26GolfGuyBets66
27AmitMoh66
283PuttOnly62
29TheMitchTobin62
30BelowParGolfer62
31Marrs_Jordan59
32Spinney1259
33JaxonGolf55
34GaryCrooks1154
35Stephen_Donelley_53
36Sammie_D9652
37_MitchCumstien_52
38GolfBets10151
39CeeWhizBets48
40DriscolMania46
41batboy4ever43
42Golftipster538
43JRSpratt36
44Andrew_Tizzard32
4547_Irish30
46NickSmith_M6
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Player Round 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
S Burns1512101855
M Fitzpatrick5751431
M Homa5753047
W Clark575926
P Cantlay525618
J Niemann57214
M Jones525921
S Scheffler57517
T McCumber5712
A Noren575623
J Kokrak57416
H Kim20222
J Speth75618
D Johnson75921
S Harrington7512
T Finau252532
A Landry257
W Zalatoris268
C Smith251623
B Grace257
J Furyk257
T Gooch25613
J Holmes22
J Hahn268
B Steele224
S Munoz224
K Streelman22
B Koepka246
C Tringale257
M Hughes22
L Griffin257
X Schauffele268
J Rahm21416
T Duncan246
S Straka224
W Bryan224
V Hovland21416
M NeSmith257
R Fowler257
S Kang22
D Lee22
S Piercy22
P Rodgers268
C Davis224
N Taylor257
N Lashley22
B Gay22
R Henley246
K Stanley246
b Hoag246
C T Pan257
F Molinari2911
M Wolff22
R Werenski22
A Putnam246
K Na246
H Varner III22
C Morikawa224
A Scott246
J T Poston224
K Lee22
B Harman22
T Hodge22
C Hoffman22
A Hadwin257
M Leishman246
C Schwartzel22
K Bradley22
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 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1AverageJoePublic69511532
 J Rahm3202014
 R McIlory0
 A Scott60204
 M Fitzpatrick3157514
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->2
2JRSpratt36511014
 A Scott120204
 S Scheffler175705
 D Johnson0
 S Garcia0
 L Griffin70205
 BONUS 20 ->
3Stephen_Donelley_5359534
 0
 H Matsuyama0
 A Scott60204
 M Homa4757530
 M Kucher0
 BONUS 20 ->
4LinksandWhiskey80520516
 J Niemann285702
 J Speith180756
 A Scott60204
 M Leishman60204
 C Hoffman20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
5Njholden1345201061
 J Speith360756
 J Rahm1602014
 M Homa4757530
 J Hahn80206
 M NeSmith70205
 BONUS 20 ->20
6Sammie_D965258514
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay185256
 A Scott60204
 M Wolff20200
 M Leishman60204
 BONUS 20 ->20
7Mark_Higgins691215181047
 D Johnson420759
 C Morikawa40202
 B Watson0
 M Homa4757530
 Zalatoris80206
 BONUS 20 ->20
847_Irish3006024
 J Thomas0
 J Rahm1602014
 X Schauffele80206
 M Leishman60204
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
9CliveWinward13510181551
 D Johnson420759
 X Schauffele80206
 P Cantlay185256
 M Kucher0
 M Homa4757530
 BONUS 20 ->20
10batboy4ever4308015
 R McIlroy0
 C Morikawa40202
 A Scott60204
 K Na60204
 A Hadwin70205
 BONUS 20 ->20
11CoxyYork102520531
 D Johnson420759
 J Rahm1602014
 J Niemann145702
 R Henley60204
 C Davis40202
 BONUS 20 ->20
12RichCro201069511540
 X Schauffele160206
 V Hovlan0
 H Matsuyama0
 M Homa4757530
 M Leishman60204
 BONUS 20 ->
13Golftipster538516512
 H Matsuyama0
 J Speith180756
 J Niemann145702
 K Na60204
 M McNealy0
 BONUS 20 ->
143PuttOnly62561035
 B Koepka120204
 P Cantlay185256
 T Finau3202525
 H Norlander0
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
15Marrs_Jordan59011527
 J Rahm3202014
 D JOhnson210759
 J Thomas0
 K Na60204
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
16GirleyGolfer201314010232067
 C Ortiz0
 A Noren235756
 J Speith180756
 T Finau3202525
 M Homa4757530
 BONUS 20 ->20
17DriscolMania4656510
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay185256
 M Leishman60204
 C Hoffman20200
 Redman0
 BONUS 20 ->20
18GarySpencer74795161027
 D Johnson420759
 B Koepka60204
 B DeChambeau0
 S Garcia0
 M Fitzpatrick3157514
 BONUS 20 ->
19M30kle835111531
 D JOhnson420759
 P Cantlay185256
 R McIlroy0
 S Garcia0
 C Smith2302516
 BONUS 20 ->
20DerekDavidson8258526
 P Cantlay365256
 J Rahm1602014
 C Morikawa40202
 K Na60204
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->20
21Bagshaw211276013517
 D JOhnson420759
 A Scott60204
 J Thomas0
 M Wolff20200
 K Na60204
 BONUS 20 ->20
22Dan92Miller1295201053
 D JOhnson420759
 X Schauffele80206
 B Koepka60204
 K Na60204
 M Homa4757530
 BONUS 20 ->20
23GolfBets1015159532
 J Thomas0
 C Morikawa40202
 H Matsuyama0
 M Homa4757530
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
24FreddieMiekle685161037
 B DeChambeau0
 D Johnson210759
 J Rahm1602014
 M Fitzpatrick3157514
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
25JimmyFitz885131019
 D Johnson420759
 P Cantlay185256
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman60204
 M Wolff20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
26_MitchCumstien_52513014
 J Thomas0
 X Schauffele80206
 C Morikawa40202
 J Niemann145702
 R Henley60204
 BONUS 20 ->20
27jbecker106891581030
 P Cantlay365256
 C Morikawa40202
 V Hovlan0
 W Zalatoris80206
 C Smith2302516
 BONUS 20 ->20
28GaryCrooks1154011517
 D JOhnson420759
 J Thomas0
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman60204
 K Na60204
 BONUS 20 ->
29PaulJacksonGolf66010028
 X Schauffele160206
 V Hovland1602014
 B Koepka60204
 M Leishman60204
 M Wolff20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
30PeterSmith272845161053
 R McIlroy0
 D Johnson210759
 J Rahm1602014
 C Ortiz0
 M Homa4757530
 BONUS 20 ->
31TheMitchTobin6258516
 X Schauffele160206
 B DeChambeau0
 P Cantlay185256
 K Na60204
 M Wolff20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
32JaxonGolf55511534
 B Watson0
 V Hovland1602014
 H Matsuyama0
 C Smith2302516
 J Kokrak165704
 BONUS 20 ->
33jstanbets79513025
 V Hovland3202014
 J Niemann145702
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman60204
 C Tringale70205
 BONUS 20 ->20
34GolfGuyBets665111019
 D JOhnson420759
 J Thomas0
 P Cantlay185256
 C Ortiz0
 R Henley60204
 BONUS 20 ->
35D_Doback781020014
 J Niemann285702
 M Leishman60204
 K Na60204
 J Kokrak165704
 C Hoffman20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
36LewisBroley8812115181040
 P Cantlay365256
 C Morikawa40202
 J Niemann145702
 C Ortiz0
 M Homa4757530
 BONUS 20 ->20
37GiraffeHK1075181033
 D Johnson420759
 R McIlroy0
 X Schauffele80206
 M Fitzpatrick3157514
 K Na60204
 BONUS 20 ->20
38LeoDuckett995131030
 D JOhnson420759
 P Cantlay185256
 X Schauffele80206
 A Ancer0
 F Molinari110209
 BONUS 20 ->20
39Spinney1259011522
 D JOhnson420759
 R McIlroy0
 B Koepka60204
 F Molinari110209
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
40CeeWhizBets4809513
 D JOhnson420759
 J Thomas0
 B Koepka60204
 C Ortiz0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
41BelowParGolfer620161015
 D JOhnson420759
 J Speith180756
 B DeChambeau0
 M Wolff20200
 B Todd0
 BONUS 20 ->
42AndrewYJohnson1205131546
 D Johnson420759
 P Cantlay185256
 T Finau3202525
 S Garcia0
 Zalatoris80206
 BONUS 20 ->20
43AmitMoh66011529
 D Johnson420759
 J Rahm1602014
 X Schauffele80206
 S Garcia0
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
44Andrew_Tizzard32011516
 R McIlroy0
 J Speith180756
 C Ortiz0
 C Tringale70205
 M NeSmith70205
 BONUS 20 ->
45ADAMP_701195181050
 Hovland3202014
 Hoffman20200
 Speith180756
 McIlroy0
 Homa4757530
 BONUS 20 ->20
46NickSmith_M60204
 R McIlroy0
 J Thomas0
 B Koepka60204
 C Ortiz0
 S Garcia0

WGC-Workday Championship Preview

            The PGA Tour ended its California swing with a highly entertaining Genesis Invitational. The Tour will begin its Florida rotation this week with the World Golf Championships – Workday Championship at The Concession Golf Course in Bradenton, Florida. The WGC-Workday is replacing the WGC-Mexico which had been held at Club de Chapultepec in Mexico City since 2017. Due to COVID-19, the Tour decided to change the venue of the event this year. The Concession is a Jack Nicklaus designed course that has never been played on Tour. The only type of “course history” that exists is the 2015 NCAA Division I Men’s Golf Championship. However, I did not take that event into consideration when handicapping the event this week.

The Concession will play as a Par 72 and measure nearly 7,500 yards. There are four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s. Three of the Par 3s will play over 200 yards, and three of the Par 5s will play over 550 yards. The field consists of 72 golfers, and there will not be a cut this week.

With various unknowns surrounding the course this week, the betting community will have many different ways of approaching this event. I started my handicapping process by looking to other Jack Nicklaus designed courses. Nicklaus courses include: Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament and 2020 Workday Charity Open) and Sherwood (2020 ZoZo). Nicklaus also re-designed PGA National in 2014 (Honda Classic). I also looked at other courses that are played in Florida to see if there are any players who consistently play well in the Sunshine State. Florida courses I looked at were: Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS Championship).

Based off the information I gathered about the Concession Golf Course, I decided to look at ball-striking, Around the Green play, and overall putting. With water hazards in play this week, Off-the-Tee play will also be important.

Key Stats: Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, Distance, Approach, Greens-in-Regulation, Around the Green, Putting, and Putting Average

Scoring Stats: Birdie-or-Better Percentage, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4 Birdie-or-Better Percentage, Par 3 Efficiency (200-225 yards), and Par 5 Efficiency (550-600 yards).

WGC – Workday Championship Tips

Patrick Cantlay 18-1 (Fanduel)

          Cantlay has been one of the hottest players on Tour. He flashed his incredible upside when he jolted up the leaderboard on Day 4 at the American Express, tying the course record of 61. Cantlay followed up that explosive finish by tying the course record in the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In a small field event with no cut, I am looking for a golfer who has the scoring upside to beat the very best, and Patrick Cantlay is that guy.

At the end of 2020, Cantlay won the ZoZo Championship at Sherwood Country Club. In 2019, Cantlay won the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Two wins in two years on Jack Nicklaus courses is reason enough to be intrigued, but it gets better for Cantlay. Over his last three events, Cantlay has gained: 8.5, 9.6, and 6 strokes tee-to-green. He’s gained off-the-tee, and on approach in each of his last three events as well. Using 2020 ShotLink data, Cantlay ranks amongst this field are: 11th Tee-to-Green, 10th in Approach, 7th in Putting Average, 13th in Birdie-or-Better Percentage, and 10th in Par 3 Efficiency (200-225 yards). Cantlay’s game profiles well for a WGC and I am looking for him to take down a Nicklaus course for the third straight year.

Tyrrell Hatton +2250 (DraftKings)

            Hatton is making his 2021 PGA Tour debut this week after a successful month on the European Tour. Hatton’s last four finishes on the Euro Tour have been: T8th, 1st, T22nd, and T6th. The #5 ranked golfer in the world has been playing very solid golf lately, and has very few holes in his game. Hatton won the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year, so he is no stranger to winning in Florida. The Arnold Palmer Invitational also draws a very strong field, and is a course where golfers need to grind in order to win.

            In this field, Hatton ranks: 12th Tee-to-Green, 15th Around the Green, 3rd in Approach, 7th in Greens-in-Regulation, 3rd in Putting Average, 4th in Birdie-or-Better Percentage, 4th in Par 4 Birdie-or-Better Percentage, and 9th in Bogey Avoidance. With the unknowns surrounding Concession Golf Course, I want to back a guy who can win regardless of the general scoring conditions and has shown the ability to win against the very best.

Webb Simpson 29-1 (Fanduel)

          Webb is a complete golfer who has changed his game in recent years to become a “course proof” player. The perception about Webb Simpson is that he is a short hitter, who gets it done on his approach and on the greens. However, Webb can drive it. He can’t drive it nearly as far as most of the other big-name players, but last year Webb averaged 296.2 yards in driving distance. 296 yards is nothing to scoff at, and this aspect of Webb’s game goes unnoticed. If Webb can live in the fairways and continue playing his style of golf, he has the skillset to contend on any course. He finished T17th at the ZoZo Championship, the last Nicklaus designed course played on Tour. Webb has had success in Florida especially in at the PAYERS Championship. His last three appearances at that event have resulted in: T16th, 1st, and T16th.

            In this field, Webb ranks: 14th Tee-to-Green, 5th in Approach, 3rd in Greens-in-Regulation, 13th in Around-the-Green, 7th in Putting, 1st in Putting Average, 1st in Birdie-or-Better Percentage, 1st in Par 4 Birdie-or-Better Percentage, 3rd in Par 3 Efficiency (200-225 yards), and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. Webb has the scoring ability to compete when the winning scores get really low, but is also a consistent player who keeps himself in contention regardless of scoring conditions.

Scottie Scheffler +4650 (DraftKings)

            Scheffler is coming off a pretty volatile Genesis Invitational. For two rounds, Scheffler shot three over par, and for two rounds he shot four under par or better. Scheffler is a young player who continues to gain valuable experience from playing in elite fields and on tougher courses. Scheffler finished T22nd at the Memorial Tournament, and T17th at the ZoZo Championship.

            In this field, Scheffler ranks: 9th Off-the-Tee, 9th Tee-to-Green, 10th in Distance, 10th in Greens-in-Regulation, 14th in Approach, 6th in Birdie-or-Better Percentage, and 3rd in Par 4 Birdie-or-Better Percentage. Scheffler has had two consecutive good events, finishing T7th at Waste Management and T20th at the Genesis Invitational. Scheffler has elite scoring upside, and in a no-cut event I am more willing to embrace the volatility.

Tommy Fleetwood 55-1 (DraftKings)

            Fleetwood, like Hatton, is making his 2021 PGA Tour debut this week. The 5-time European Tour winner has been in good form recently. Fleetwood’s last four events on the Euro Tour have resulted in: T26th, T17th, T7th, and T10th. Fleetwood has played great in Florida, the only thing he’s missing is a win. The last two times Fleetwood has played in the Honda Classic he has finished: 3rd and 4th (he did not play in 2019). At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Fleetwood has finishes of: T3rd and T26th (2019, and 2018). At the PLAYERS Championship, Fleetwood has finishes of: T5th and T7th (2019 and 2018). Fleetwood has shown a clear Top 5 upside against tough fields on Florida courses.

            In this field, Fleetwood ranks: 13th in Putting, 9th in Distance, 2nd in Par 3 (200-225 yards), and 8th in Par 4 Birdie-or-Better Percentage. In a WGC event, I did not want to stray too far from the top of the betting board. I like this number for the #21 ranked golfer in the world, who’s name seems to live on the first page of leaderboards.

DAY TWO – WAGGLE DUFF LEADERBOARD

#NamePoints
1D_Doback62
2LewisBroley8860
3LinksandWhiskey57
4CliveWinward55
5GirleyGolfer201353
6Njholden52
7CoxyYork52
8Dan92Miller52
9Mark_Higgins6950
10GiraffeHK50
11JimmyFitz45
12LeoDuckett45
13AndrewYJohnson45
14ADAMP_7045
15DerekDavidson40
16Bagshaw211240
17jbecker106840
18jstanbets40
19_MitchCumstien_38
20TheMitchTobin35
21Sammie_D9633
22PaulJacksonGolf32
23DriscolMania31
24batboy4ever28
25GarySpencer7428
26M30kle23
27GolfGuyBets23
28BelowParGolfer23
29Golftipster521
30FreddieMiekle21
31PeterSmith27221
32AverageJoePublic18
33JRSpratt18
34RichCro201018
35GaryCrooks1118
36Spinney1218
37AmitMoh18
38JaxonGolf16
39CeeWhizBets16
40Stephen_Donelley_14
41GolfBets10114
423PuttOnly13
43Marrs_Jordan13
44Andrew_Tizzard11
4547_Irish6
46NickSmith_M2
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PLAYER POINTS

Player Round 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
S Burns151227
M Fitzpatrick5712
M Homa5712
W Clark5712
P Cantlay527
J Niemann5712
M Jones527
S Scheffler5712
T McCumber5712
A Noren5712
J Kokrak5712
H Kim20222
J Speth77
D Johnson77
S Harrington77
T Finau22
A Landry22
W Zalatoris22
C Smith22
B Grace22
J Furyk22
T Gooch22
J Holmes22
J Hahn22
B Steele22
S Munoz22
K Streelman22
B Koepka22
C Tringale22
M Hughes22
L Griffin22
X Schauffele22
J Rahm22
T Duncan22
S Straka22
W Bryan22
V Hovland22
M NeSmith22
R Fowler22
S Kang22
D Lee22
S Piercy22
P Rodgers22
C Davis22
N Taylor22
N Lashley22
B Gay22
R Henley22
K Stanley22
b Hoag22
C T Pan22
F Molinari22
M Wolff22
R Werenski22
A Putnam22
K Na22
H Varner III22
C Morikawa22
A Scott22
J T Poston22
K Lee22
B Harman22
T Hodge22
C Hoffman22
A Hadwin22
M Leishman22
C Schwartzel22
K Bradley22

TEAM BREAKDOWN

 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1AverageJoePublic1851100
 J Rahm40200
 R McIlory0
 A Scott20200
 M Fitzpatrick125700
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->2
2JRSpratt1851100
 A Scott40200
 S Scheffler125700
 D Johnson0
 S Garcia0
 L Griffin20200
 BONUS 20 ->
3Stephen_Donelley_145900
 0
 H Matsuyama0
 A Scott20200
 M Homa125700
 M Kucher0
 BONUS 20 ->
4LinksandWhiskey5752000
 J Niemann245700
 J Speith70700
 A Scott20200
 M Leishman20200
 C Hoffman20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
5Njholden5252000
 J Speith140700
 J Rahm20200
 M Homa125700
 J Hahn20200
 M NeSmith20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
6Sammie_D96335800
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay75200
 A Scott20200
 M Wolff20200
 M Leishman20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
7Mark_Higgins695051800
 D Johnson140700
 C Morikawa20200
 B Watson0
 M Homa125700
 Zalatoris20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
847_Irish60600
 J Thomas0
 J Rahm20200
 X Schauffele20200
 M Leishman20200
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
9CliveWinward55101800
 D Johnson140700
 X Schauffele20200
 P Cantlay75200
 M Kucher0
 M Homa125700
 BONUS 20 ->20
10batboy4ever280800
 R McIlroy0
 C Morikawa20200
 A Scott20200
 K Na20200
 A Hadwin20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
11CoxyYork5252000
 D Johnson140700
 J Rahm20200
 J Niemann125700
 R Henley20200
 C Davis20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
12RichCro20101851100
 X Schauffele40200
 V Hovlan0
 H Matsuyama0
 M Homa125700
 M Leishman20200
 BONUS 20 ->
13Golftipster52151600
 H Matsuyama0
 J Speith70700
 J Niemann125700
 K Na20200
 M McNealy0
 BONUS 20 ->
143PuttOnly135600
 B Koepka40200
 P Cantlay75200
 T Finau20200
 H Norlander0
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
15Marrs_Jordan1301100
 J Rahm40200
 D JOhnson70700
 J Thomas0
 K Na20200
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
16GirleyGolfer201353102300
 C Ortiz0
 A Noren125700
 J Speith70700
 T Finau20200
 M Homa125700
 BONUS 20 ->20
17DriscolMania315600
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay75200
 M Leishman20200
 C Hoffman20200
 Redman0
 BONUS 20 ->20
18GarySpencer742851600
 D Johnson140700
 B Koepka20200
 B DeChambeau0
 S Garcia0
 M Fitzpatrick125700
 BONUS 20 ->
19M30kle2351100
 D JOhnson140700
 P Cantlay75200
 R McIlroy0
 S Garcia0
 C Smith20200
 BONUS 20 ->
20DerekDavidson405800
 P Cantlay145200
 J Rahm20200
 C Morikawa20200
 K Na20200
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->20
21Bagshaw21124001300
 D JOhnson140700
 A Scott20200
 J Thomas0
 M Wolff20200
 K Na20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
22Dan92Miller5252000
 D JOhnson140700
 X Schauffele20200
 B Koepka20200
 K Na20200
 M Homa125700
 BONUS 20 ->20
23GolfBets101145900
 J Thomas0
 C Morikawa20200
 H Matsuyama0
 M Homa125700
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
24FreddieMiekle2151600
 B DeChambeau0
 D Johnson70700
 J Rahm20200
 M Fitzpatrick125700
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
25JimmyFitz4551300
 D Johnson140700
 P Cantlay75200
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman20200
 M Wolff20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
26_MitchCumstien_3851300
 J Thomas0
 X Schauffele20200
 C Morikawa20200
 J Niemann125700
 R Henley20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
27jbecker1068405800
 P Cantlay145200
 C Morikawa20200
 V Hovlan0
 W Zalatoris20200
 C Smith20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
28GaryCrooks111801100
 D JOhnson140700
 J Thomas0
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman20200
 K Na20200
 BONUS 20 ->
29PaulJacksonGolf3201000
 X Schauffele40200
 V Hovland20200
 B Koepka20200
 M Leishman20200
 M Wolff20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
30PeterSmith2722151600
 R McIlroy0
 D Johnson70700
 J Rahm20200
 C Ortiz0
 M Homa125700
 BONUS 20 ->
31TheMitchTobin355800
 X Schauffele40200
 B DeChambeau0
 P Cantlay75200
 K Na20200
 M Wolff20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
32JaxonGolf1651100
 B Watson0
 V Hovland20200
 H Matsuyama0
 C Smith20200
 J Kokrak125700
 BONUS 20 ->
33jstanbets4051300
 V Hovland40200
 J Niemann125700
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman20200
 C Tringale20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
34GolfGuyBets2351100
 D JOhnson140700
 J Thomas0
 P Cantlay75200
 C Ortiz0
 R Henley20200
 BONUS 20 ->
35D_Dobak62102000
 J Niemann245700
 M Leishman20200
 K Na20200
 J Kokrak125700
 C Hoffman20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
36LewisBroley8860151800
 P Cantlay145200
 C Morikawa20200
 J Niemann125700
 C Ortiz0
 M Homa125700
 BONUS 20 ->20
37GiraffeHK5051800
 D Johnson140700
 R McIlroy0
 X Schauffele20200
 M Fitzpatrick125700
 K Na20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
38LeoDuckett4551300
 D JOhnson140700
 P Cantlay75200
 X Schauffele20200
 A Ancer0
 F Molinari20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
39Spinney121801100
 D JOhnson140700
 R McIlroy0
 B Koepka20200
 F Molinari20200
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
40CeeWhizBets160900
 D JOhnson140700
 J Thomas0
 B Koepka20200
 C Ortiz0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
41BelowParGolfer2301600
 D JOhnson140700
 J Speith70700
 B DeChambeau0
 M Wolff20200
 B Todd0
 BONUS 20 ->
42AndrewYJohnson4551300
 D Johnson140700
 P Cantlay75200
 T Finau20200
 S Garcia0
 Zalatoris20200
 BONUS 20 ->20
43AmitMoh1801100
 D Johnson140700
 J Rahm20200
 X Schauffele20200
 S Garcia0
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
44Andrew_Tizzard1101100
 R McIlroy0
 J Speith70700
 C Ortiz0
 C Tringale20200
 M NeSmith20200
 BONUS 20 ->
45ADAMP_704551800
 Hovland40200
 Hoffman20200
 Speith70700
 McIlroy0
 Homa125700
 BONUS 20 ->20
46NickSmith_M20200
 R McIlroy0
 J Thomas0
 B Koepka20200
 C Ortiz0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->

DAY ONE – GENESIS OPEN

#NamePoints
1LewisBroley8820
2D_Dobak15
3AverageJoePublic10
4LinksandWhiskey10
5CliveWinward10
6GirleyGolfer201310
7DerekDavidson10
8jbecker106810
9JRSpratt5
10Stephen_Donelley_5
11Njholden5
12Sammie_D965
13Mark_Higgins695
14CoxyYork5
15RichCro20105
16Golftipster55
173PuttOnly5
18DriscolMania5
19GarySpencer745
20M30kle5
21Bagshaw21125
22Dan92Miller5
23GolfBets1015
24FreddieMiekle5
25JimmyFitz5
26_MitchCumstien_5
27PeterSmith2725
28TheMitchTobin5
29JaxonGolf5
30jstanbets5
31GolfGuyBets5
32GiraffeHK5
33LeoDuckett5
34AndrewYJohnson5
3547_Irish0
36batboy4ever0
37Marrs_Jordan0
38GaryCrooks110
39PaulJacksonGolf0
40Spinney120
41CeeWhizBets0
42BelowParGolfer0
43AmitMoh0
44Andrew_Tizzard0
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PLAYER POINTS

Player Round 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4Total
S Burns1515
M Fitzpatrick55
M Homa55
W Clark55
P Cantlay55
J Niemann55
M Jones55
S Scheffler55
T McCumber55
A Noren55
J Kokrak55
H Kim2020

TEAM BREAKDOWN

 POINTSTotalRound 1Round 2Round 3 Round 4
1AverageJoePublic1010000
 M Gretzsky0
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay55000
 M Homa55000
 M McNealy0
 BONUS 20 ->
2JRSpratt55000
 A Scott0
 S Scheffler55000
 D Johnson0
 S Garcia0
 L Griffin0
 BONUS 20 ->
3Stephen_Donelley_55000
 0
 H Matsuyama0
 A Scott0
 M Homa55000
 M Kucher0
 BONUS 20 ->
4LinksandWhiskey105000
 J Niemann105000
 J Speith0
 A Scott0
 M Leishman0
 C Hoffman0
 BONUS 20 ->
5Njholden55000
 J Speith0
 J Rahm0
 M Homa55000
 J Hahn0
 M NeSmith0
 BONUS 20 ->
6Sammie_D9655000
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay55000
 A Scott0
 M Wolff0
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
7Mark_Higgins6955000
 D Johnson0
 C Morikawa0
 B Watson0
 M Homa55000
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
847_Irish00000
 J Thomas0
 J Rahm0
 X Schauffele0
 M Leishman0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
9CliveWinward1010000
 D Johnson0
 X Schauffele0
 P Cantlay55000
 M Kucher0
 M Homa55000
 BONUS 20 ->
10batboy4ever00000
 R McIlroy0
 C Morikawa0
 A Scott0
 K Na0
 A Hadwin0
 BONUS 20 ->
11CoxyYork55000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm0
 J Niemann55000
 R Henley0
 C Davis0
 BONUS 20 ->
12RichCro201055000
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovlan0
 H Matsuyama0
 M Homa55000
 M Leishman0
 BONUS 20 ->
13Golftipster555000
 H Matsuyama0
 J Speith0
 J Niemann55000
 K Na0
 M McNealy0
 BONUS 20 ->
143PuttOnly55000
 B Koepka0
 P Cantlay55000
 T Finau0
 H Norlander0
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
15Marrs_Jordan00000
 J Rahm0
 D JOhnson0
 J Thomas0
 K Na0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
16GirleyGolfer20131010000
 C Ortiz0
 A Noren55000
 J Speith0
 T Finau0
 M Homa55000
 BONUS 20 ->
17DriscolMania55000
 R McIlroy0
 P Cantlay55000
 M Leishman0
 C Hoffman0
 Redman0
 BONUS 20 ->
18GarySpencer7455000
 D Johnson0
 B Koepka0
 B DeChambeau0
 S Garcia0
 M Fitzpatrick55000
 BONUS 20 ->
19M30kle55000
 D JOhnson0
 P Cantlay55000
 R McIlroy0
 S Garcia0
 C Smith0
 BONUS 20 ->
20DerekDavidson105000
 P Cantlay105000
 J Rahm0
 C Morikawa0
 K Na0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
21Bagshaw211255000
 D JOhnson0
 A Scott0
 J Thomas55000
 M Wolff0
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
22Dan92Miller55000
 D JOhnson0
 X Schauffele0
 B Koepka0
 K Na0
 M Homa55000
 BONUS 20 ->
23GolfBets10155000
 J Thomas0
 C Morikawa0
 H Matsuyama0
 M Homa55000
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
24FreddieMiekle55000
 B DeChambeau0
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm0
 M Fitzpatrick55000
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
25JimmyFitz55000
 D Johnson0
 P Cantlay55000
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->
26_MitchCumstien_55000
 J Thomas0
 X Schauffele0
 C Morikawa0
 J Niemann55000
 R Henley0
 BONUS 20 ->
27jbecker1068105000
 P Cantlay105000
 C Morikawa0
 V Hovlan0
 W Zalatoris0
 C Smith0
 BONUS 20 ->
28GaryCrooks1100000
 D JOhnson0
 J Thomas0
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman0
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
29PaulJacksonGolf00000
 X Schauffele0
 V Hovland0
 B Koepka0
 M Leishman0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->
30PeterSmith27255000
 R McIlroy0
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm0
 C Ortiz0
 M Homa55000
 BONUS 20 ->
31TheMitchTobin55000
 X Schauffele0
 B DeChambeau0
 P Cantlay55000
 K Na0
 M Wolff0
 BONUS 20 ->
32JaxonGolf55000
 B Watson0
 V Hovland0
 H Matsuyama0
 C Smith0
 J Kokrak55000
 BONUS 20 ->
33jstanbets55000
 V Hovland0
 J Niemann55000
 R McIlroy0
 M Leishman0
 C Tringale0
 BONUS 20 ->
34GolfGuyBets55000
 D JOhnson0
 J Thomas0
 P Cantlay55000
 C Ortiz0
 R Henley0
 BONUS 20 ->
35D_Dobak1510000
 J Niemann105000
 M Leishman0
 K Na0
 J Kokrak55000
 C Hoffman0
 BONUS 20 ->
36LewisBroley882015000
 P Cantlay105000
 C Morikawa0
 J Niemann55000
 C Ortiz0
 M Homa55000
 BONUS 20 ->
37GiraffeHK55000
 D Johnson0
 R McIlroy0
 X Schauffele0
 M Fitzpatrick55000
 K Na0
 BONUS 20 ->
38LeoDuckett55000
 D JOhnson0
 P Cantlay55000
 X Schauffele0
 A Ancer0
 F Molinari0
 BONUS 20 ->
39Spinney1200000
 D JOhnson0
 R McIlroy0
 B Koepka0
 F Molinari0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
40CeeWhizBets00000
 D JOhnson0
 J Thomas0
 B Koepka0
 C Ortiz0
 S Garcia0
 BONUS 20 ->
41BelowParGolfer00000
 D JOhnson0
 J Spieth0
 B DeChambeau0
 M Wolff0
 B Todd0
 BONUS 20 ->
42AndrewYJohnson55000
 D Johnson0
 P Cantlay55000
 T Finau0
 S Garcia0
 Zalatoris0
 BONUS 20 ->
43AmitMoh00000
 D Johnson0
 J Rahm0
 X Schauffele0
 S Garcia0
 C Ortiz0
 BONUS 20 ->
44Andrew_Tizzard00000
 R McIlroy0
 J Spieth0
 C Ortiz0
 C Tringale0
 M NeSmith0
 BONUS 20 ->

Genesis Invitational Preview

            The PGA Tour caps off the California swing with a trip to Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. As an invitational, the field is smaller with only 121 golfers. Riviera Country Club is a challenging course, that will require golfers to be playing well in all aspects of their game in order to contend. Riviera is a Par 71 and measures 7,233 yards. There are four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s. The first hole at Riviera is a Par 5 and is an absolute “must birdie” hole. The fairways are Kikuyu grass which gives a slight edge to Australian and South African golfers where this type of grass is more common. The tree-lined fairways are very difficult to hit, and the Poa Annua green complexes lead to some very difficult short putts. The course plays longer than it says on paper, in particular on the Par 4s. Golfers will need to capitalize on their birdie opportunities, and understand that Par is a good score on most of these holes.

Former winners of this event are Adam Scott, J.B. Holmes, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson (again). Upon reviewing their winning scorecards, it becomes obvious that Tee-to-Green play is going to be essential. Over the last five years, the winners have averaged 9.4 strokes gained Tee-to-Green. Strong approach play will be important as always. With such tough putting greens, golfers will need to strike the ball well and give themselves as many short putts as possible. Par 5 scoring will be crucial, as the last five winners have scored on 55% of the Par 5s throughout the tournament.

This week I looked at more correlated courses than usual. I separated the correlated golf courses into two tiers: high-end, and value courses. The high-end courses I looked at were Augusta National, the Plantation Course at Kapalua, and Nine Bridges. These are considered “high-end” courses because they draw an elite field. Augusta is a second shot golf course where the cream rises to the top. Augusta has also seen the likes of Bubba Watson win multiple times. The Plantation Course at Kapalua hosts the Sentry Tournament of Champions, where the field is full of winners. The course requires distance and approach, a recipe for success at Riviera. Nine Bridges caught my eye because there was strong cross-over correlation with the leaderboards, and Nine Bridges has been kind to Australian golfers in the past.

The Value Courses I looked at were TPC San Antonio and TPC Summerlin. These courses host weaker fields and were ranked highly by DataGolf as correlated courses. When reviewing leaderboards from these events players like Martin Laird and Ryan Moore have played very well. Both of those golfers have also recorded Top 10s at Riviera in recent years.

Genesis will host the strongest field of 2021 to date. 20 of the Top 30 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking will be teeing it up this week. With such an elite field there is great value in the betting markets for high quality golfers.

Key Stats: Approach, Tee-to-Green, Distance, Greens-in-Regulation, Around the Green, Putting, Putting Inside 10 feet, and 3 Putt Avoidance

Scoring Stats: Birdie or Better Percentage, Par 3 Birdie or Better Percentage, Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage, Par 4 Scoring Average, and Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards

Genesis Invitational Tips

Justin Thomas 14-1 (DraftKings)

          JT is one of the best players in the world and he has won events against elite fields. Thomas played at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he faded on Sunday but still recorded a T13th finish. Thomas has had success at Riviera with two Top 10s in his last three years. Thomas has performed well at Augusta where his last three finishes have been: 4th, T12th, and T17th. At Kapalua the last three years, Thomas has finished: 3rd, 1st, and 3rd. Thomas won the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges in 2019 and 2017. Thomas has dominated the correlated courses I looked at this week, and his stat profile fits Riviera very well.

Using 2020 ShotLink data, Justin Thomas ranks amongst this field are: 1st Tee-to-Green, 1st in Approach, 24th in Distance, 17th in Greens-in-Regulation, 22nd in Proximity, 8th Around the Green, 1st in Birdie or Better Percentage, 6th in Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards), 1st in Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage, and 1st in Par 4 Scoring Average. JT has been playing at an elite level for some time now. At the top of the odds boards there is a case to be made for every golfer, but I am going to ride with JT.

Collin Morikawa 40-1 (Fanduel)

            Morikawa returns to PGA Tour action this week after a brief trip to the Middle East on the Euro Tour. The last time we saw Morikawa he put together back-to-back T7th finishes in Hawaii. In Hawaii, Morikawa was stellar with his irons and he will need them again this week. Last year, Morikawa finished T26th at Riviera. However, he played much better than the leaderboard would indicate. Morikawa found trouble during the final round specifically on the 11th Hole where he posted a triple bogey. If Morikawa can avoid big mistakes like that his overall game fits Riviera. Morikawa has not had too much success at correlated courses but he has finished T7th at Kapalua each of the last two years.

In this field, Morikawa ranks: 5th Tee-to-Green, 2nd in Approach, 17th in Proximity, 25th in Greens-in-Regulation, 20th in Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards), 14th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 6th in Par 3 Birdie or Better Percentage, and 13th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage. Morikawa is a world class player, 7th in the Official World Golf Rankings and coming in at a very attractive price.

Hideki Matsuyama 45-1 (DraftKings)

            Hideki last played at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and was a very popular pick. He disappointed many bettors with his T42nd finish, which might explain the bump in his outright price. Hideki is an elite ball-striker and has had success at Riviera. In his last 6 appearances, Hideki has 5 Top 25s, 3 Top 10s, and one missed cut. Matsuyama has recorded solid finishes at Augusta notching two Top 20s in his last three tries. His last appearance at Nine Bridges resulted in a T3rd finish. Matsuyama also added a T16th at TPC Summerlin in 2019.

In this field, Hideki ranks: 2nd Tee-to-Green, 4th in Approach, 2nd Around the Green, 25th in Proximity, 23rd in Distance, 15th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 12th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage, and 12th in Par 4 Scoring Average. Admittedly, backing Hideki can be frustrating due to struggles with his flatstick. However, if his ball-striking is sharp and he gets hot, he could be sitting at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Max Homa 70-1 (DraftKings)

            Max Homa loves the California swing. A lot of Homa’s success has come early in the season during these recent events. The last two times Homa has played Riviera he has finished T37th and T5th. During the California swing this season, Homa has finished T7th at Pebble Beach, T18th at Farmers, and T21st at the American Express. Over his last three events Homa has gained 14 strokes on Approach and 12 strokes Tee-to-Green. Homa’s lone PGA Tour win came at Quail Hollow which is also a Tom Fazio course. In this field, Homa ranks: 23rd Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards), and 24th in 3 Putt Avoidance. Homa had been struggling with his putter, but he gained strokes on the Greens last week which is an encouraging sign for this week. If Homa keeps striking the ball well he can be hunting for his second PGA Tour win.

Carlos Ortiz 90-1 (DraftKings)

            Carlos Ortiz is one of the hottest players on Tour right now. Since his win at the Vivint Houston Open in November, Ortiz has recorded two more Top 10s, a T14th, and has not missed a cut. Two weeks ago, at the Waste Management Phoenix Open Ortiz recorded a T4th finish. Ortiz has played at Riviera four times in his career. He has not missed the cut, and he has never finished worse than T26th. In this field, Ortiz ranks: 10th Around the Green, 15th in Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards), and 21st in Par 3 Birdie or Better Percentage. Ortiz has been playing himself into contention recently, and has good course history. 90-1 is a huge number for one of the hottest guys on Tour.